Advertisement
HD vs LOW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Home Depot (HD) vs. Lowe's (LOW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) both face persistent headwinds from elevated mortgage rates and sluggish housing turnover, yet each has pursued distinct strategic paths to navigate the downturn.
- Home Depot's scale advantage remains pronounced, with fiscal 2025 sales of $164.7 billion dwarfing Lowe's roughly $86 billion, though Lowe's has delivered stronger comparable sales growth in recent quarters.
- Both companies have invested heavily in the professional contractor (Pro) segment, with Home Depot acquiring SRS Distribution and GMS, while Lowe's added Foundation Building Materials (FBM) and Artisan Design Group (ADG).
- Home Depot offers a higher dividend yield of approximately 2.75% versus Lowe's roughly 1.8%, backed by 156 consecutive quarters of dividend payments.
- Lowe's trades at a modestly lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, while Home Depot commands a premium that reflects its market-leadership position and operational scale.
- Both stocks have underperformed the broader S&P 500 over the past year, as the home improvement sector grapples with a housing market described by executives as experiencing turnover rates at multi-decade lows.
Introduction
Few rivalries in the retail sector are as closely watched as the one between HD (Home Depot) and LOW (Lowe's). As the two largest home improvement retailers in the United States, these companies serve as bellwethers for consumer spending on housing, renovation, and construction. Their stocks are often evaluated side by side by investors seeking exposure to the cyclical rhythms of the real estate market. With mortgage rates remaining elevated and housing turnover hovering near historic lows, the strategic divergence between these two giants has become more consequential than ever. This stock comparison examines their recent performance, key business developments, and relative positioning to help traders and investors assess which name may be better suited to the current market environment.
HD Overview and Recent Performance
HD (Home Depot), headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, is the world's largest home improvement retailer, operating 2,359 retail stores and over 1,250 SRS distribution locations across all 50 U.S. states, Canada, and Mexico. With a market capitalization of approximately $338 billion and a workforce exceeding 470,000 associates, the company occupies a dominant position in a total addressable market estimated at over $1 trillion.
In recent market activity, Home Depot shares have traded near the $339 level, well below their 52-week high of roughly $427 and modestly above their 52-week low near $289. The stock has declined approximately 6% over the trailing twelve months, reflecting the broader pressure on housing-exposed equities. For fiscal 2025, the company reported total sales of $164.7 billion, representing a 3.2% increase year over year, though adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) declined to $14.69 from $15.24 in the prior year. Comparable sales in the U.S. inched up just 0.5% for the full year.
Several factors have shaped Home Depot's recent trajectory. The company has aggressively expanded its Pro (professional contractor) ecosystem through major acquisitions, including the $18.3 billion purchase of SRS Distribution and the subsequent $5.5 billion acquisition of GMS. Management has signaled that integrating these assets remains a priority, even as near-term margin pressure persists. On the digital front, online comparable sales surged approximately 11% in recent quarters, outpacing overall company growth and underscoring the success of technology investments. However, CEO Ted Decker has acknowledged that consumer uncertainty and housing affordability challenges continue to weigh on big-ticket discretionary projects. The company's fiscal 2026 guidance calls for total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5% and comparable sales ranging from flat to up 2%.
LOW Overview and Recent Performance
LOW (Lowe's), based in Mooresville, North Carolina, is the second-largest home improvement retailer in the world, operating approximately 1,759 stores with around 196 million square feet of retail selling space. The company has been executing a "Total Home" strategy that emphasizes an integrated approach spanning Pro, DIY (do-it-yourself), online, and home services channels.
In recent trading, Lowe's shares have demonstrated relative resilience, advancing approximately 15.5% year to date through the first part of 2026, outpacing its home improvement peer group. The company's fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results showed notable strength, with net sales reaching $20.58 billion — a 10.9% year-over-year increase — and comparable sales rising 1.3%, handily exceeding the modest 0.2% consensus expectation. Adjusted EPS of $1.98 also beat analyst forecasts, driven by solid holiday demand and continued momentum in Pro and online channels.
Lowe's has similarly pursued acquisitions to deepen its Pro exposure, notably purchasing Foundation Building Materials (FBM) and Artisan Design Group (ADG). These moves are designed to capture a larger share of the professional contractor market, which tends to generate more stable demand than the cyclical DIY segment. CEO Marvin Ellison has been candid about the challenging backdrop, citing housing turnover at its lowest level since the early 1990s and a "dynamic tariff environment" as persistent headwinds. The company's fiscal 2026 outlook projects total sales of $92 billion to $94 billion and adjusted EPS of $12.25 to $12.75, with comparable sales expected to be flat to up 2%. While the top-line guidance implies 7% to 9% growth, a significant portion is tied to acquisition contributions rather than organic expansion.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a data-driven edge in evaluating stocks like HD and LOW, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated selection of AI-powered trading bots designed to navigate shifting market conditions. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only a select group earns a place in the Trending AI Robots section — those whose strategies, risk parameters, and recent performance align most closely with current market dynamics. These bots span a wide range of trading styles, from short-term swing trading to longer-term trend following, and each bot operates with its own distinct set of statistics, win rates, and tracked tickers. The performance metrics vary considerably, with some bots generating double-digit annualized returns depending on market conditions and strategy execution. Exploring the Trending AI Robots page can help investors identify automated strategies that match their risk tolerance and investment horizon.
Head-to-Head Comparison
When placing HD and LOW side by side, several contrasts emerge that go beyond the obvious difference in scale. Home Depot's $164.7 billion revenue base is nearly double Lowe's, and its operating margins have historically trended higher — though both companies have experienced margin compression in the current cycle. Home Depot's adjusted operating margin for fiscal 2025 was approximately 13.1%, versus Lowe's sub-12% profile, reflecting Home Depot's greater economies of scale and supply chain efficiencies.
On the growth front, Lowe's has recently posted stronger comparable sales numbers, including a 1.3% comp gain in the most recent quarter versus Home Depot's 0.4%. This relative outperformance suggests that Lowe's Total Home strategy and Pro investments are gaining traction, particularly among small-to-medium professional customers. Both companies have leaned into digital transformation, with Home Depot reporting an 11% jump in online comparable sales and Lowe's also logging double-digit e-commerce growth.
Valuation represents another key differentiator. Home Depot trades at a forward P/E ratio of approximately 22 to 24, while Lowe's has historically commanded a lower multiple, closer to 21. This premium reflects Home Depot's market leadership, stronger margins, and longer track record of operational excellence. However, Lowe's lower valuation may appeal to value-oriented investors who see the company's acquisition-driven growth strategy as underappreciated. In terms of shareholder returns, Home Depot's dividend yield of roughly 2.75% outpaces Lowe's approximately 1.8%, and Home Depot's 156-quarter streak of consecutive dividend payments underscores its commitment to capital return. Risk factors for both include sustained high interest rates, tariff-related cost pressures, and the possibility that housing turnover remains depressed longer than anticipated.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trends, relative positioning, and the constellation of signals that Tickeron's AI trading systems typically weigh, HD (Home Depot) appears to hold a modest edge in the current environment. The combination of unmatched scale, a diversified Pro ecosystem strengthened by the SRS and GMS acquisitions, superior operating margins, a higher dividend yield, and digital momentum creates a profile that AI-driven models would likely interpret as offering greater trend consistency and downside resilience. That said, LOW (Lowe's) has demonstrated stronger recent comparable sales momentum and trades at a valuation discount that could prove attractive if housing market conditions stabilize. The AI verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Home Depot's established advantages make it the steadier candidate in a challenging macro cycle, but Lowe's improving execution and relative value could narrow the gap — particularly if interest rates begin to ease and housing activity reaccelerates.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HD is a StrongBuy and LOW is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HD’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileLOW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- HD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LOW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HD’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LOW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LOW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HD (@Home Improvement Chains) experienced а -0.31% price change this week, while LOW (@Home Improvement Chains) price change was +0.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Home Improvement Chains industry was +1.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.30%.
Reported Earning Dates
HD is expected to report earnings on Aug 18, 2026.
LOW is expected to report earnings on Aug 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Home Improvement Chains (+1.54% weekly)The home improvement chains industry sells home improvement merchandise and do-it-yourself repair and building goods. Customers include individual contractors or construction managers on one hand; on the other hand, there are retail consumers who’d either buy raw materials/items from the store to do a project on their own, or pay extra for installation services. Products sold include fencing supplies, lumber materials, hardware, lighting fixtures, plumbing supplies, home decor items, bathroom remodel items, roofing materials, tools and wallboard to name a few. The Home Depot Inc., Lowe’s Companies, Inc. and Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. are some of the biggest home improvement retailing companies in the U.S. Allowing all types of customers the flexibility to choose or buy products both offline and online and then having the products shipped to the respective sites/homes are some of the potential drivers of a home improvement chain’s popularity. Many big-box home improvement chains are looking to expand their overseas presence. Supply-chain efficiency and distribution management are some of the key ingredients to grow/make profit in this industry.
| HD | LOW | HD / LOW | |
| Capitalization | 331B | 117B | 283% |
| EBITDA | 25.1B | 12.6B | 199% |
| Gain YTD | -2.155 | -12.489 | 17% |
| P/E Ratio | 23.58 | 17.57 | 134% |
| Revenue | 167B | 88.4B | 189% |
| Total Cash | 1.6B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 63.2B | 42.5B | 149% |
HD | LOW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 6 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 3 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 4 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 56 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LOW's Valuation (3) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is significantly better than the same rating for HD (71). This means that LOW’s stock grew significantly faster than HD’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's Profit vs Risk Rating (76) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as HD (76). This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to HD’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's SMR Rating (4) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as HD (11). This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to HD’s over the last 12 months.
HD's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as LOW (62). This means that HD’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's P/E Growth Rating (56) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as HD (57). This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to HD’s over the last 12 months.
| HD | LOW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 65% | 6 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 49% |
Advertisement
LOW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LOW has been closely correlated with HD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LOW jumps, then HD could also see price increases.