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HD vs LOW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Home Depot (HD) vs. Lowe's (LOW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Home Depot (HD) reported fiscal third-quarter earnings below expectations and cut its full-year profit outlook, sending shares toward year-to-date lows.
- Lowe's (LOW) beat on earnings per share (EPS), raised its full-year sales guidance, and outpaced its rival on comparable-store sales for a second straight quarter.
- Both retailers are contending with the same macro headwinds: weak housing turnover, cautious consumers, and a lack of severe storm activity.
- HD is leaning on larger, lower-margin acquisitions to capture professional (Pro) customers, while LOW is investing in a more targeted Pro and digital strategy.
- Relative performance has diverged, with LOW demonstrating stronger near-term earnings momentum despite a smaller revenue base.
Introduction
Home Depot and Lowe's are the two dominant players in the U.S. home improvement retail market, and their stocks are frequently measured against one another by traders and long-term investors alike. Because both companies operate in the same cyclical sector and respond to the same housing and consumer-spending forces, comparing their relative performance can reveal which is executing better in a difficult environment. This stock comparison is especially relevant for investors seeking defensive consumer exposure, dividend income, or a way to gauge the health of the broader housing economy through two widely followed bellwethers.
HD Overview and Recent Performance
HD, the parent of Home Depot, is the world's largest home improvement retailer, with a market capitalization of roughly $335 billion and more than 2,350 stores. In recent weeks, the company's shares have come under pressure after its fiscal third-quarter results fell short of Wall Street expectations. Revenue rose about 2.8% year over year to $41.35 billion, but adjusted EPS of $3.74 missed consensus estimates, marking the third consecutive quarterly profit shortfall.
Comparable sales—a key measure of sales at stores open at least a year—rose just 0.2%, while customer transactions declined, reflecting softer foot traffic and deferred projects. Management attributed the weakness to a lack of storm activity, ongoing consumer uncertainty, and persistent housing-market pressure. The company also lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a roughly 5% decline and tempered its comparable-sales outlook. Home Depot has continued to expand its Pro business through acquisitions such as GMS, a specialty building-products distributor, though these deals weigh on near-term margins.
LOW Overview and Recent Performance
LOW, the parent of Lowe's, is the second-largest U.S. home improvement retailer, operating roughly 1,756 stores with a market capitalization near $123 billion. In recent weeks, its shares have shown greater resilience, rallying after the company posted fiscal third-quarter adjusted EPS of $3.06, above analyst expectations and extending a lengthy streak of bottom-line beats.
Comparable sales increased 0.4%, outpacing Home Depot for a second consecutive quarter, supported by double-digit online sales growth and continued strength in the Pro and home services segments. Gross margin expanded by 50 basis points year over year. Lowe's raised its full-year sales outlook to approximately $86 billion, reflecting the closing of its $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials, a distributor serving professional customers. However, it trimmed its comparable-sales guidance to flat and carries a sizable long-term debt load, which has pressured profitability and interest expense.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although Home Depot and Lowe's compete in the same sector, their business models and growth strategies differ in meaningful ways. Home Depot has historically maintained higher operating margins and a larger Pro footprint, and it is now doubling down through large-scale acquisitions such as GMS and SRS. These deals broaden its distribution capabilities but dilute margins in the near term and have contributed to a downward revision in profitability guidance.
Lowe's, by contrast, is executing a more targeted strategy focused on small- to medium-sized Pros, digital marketplace expansion, and home services. Its smaller scale gives it more room to grow comparable sales from existing initiatives, and its recent earnings beat suggests more stable execution. On the risk side, Lowe's carries a larger relative debt burden and a shareholders' deficit, while Home Depot's balance sheet remains comparatively stronger. From a market-sentiment perspective, Lowe's has shown stronger recent momentum, while Home Depot's shares have lagged and trade near year-to-date lows.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward LOW in the current environment. Lowe's has demonstrated steadier execution, positive comparable-sales trends relative to its rival, and a more constructive market reaction to its most recent results. Home Depot's scale and margin profile remain long-term advantages, but its guidance revisions and softer profit trends suggest the near-term setup is less favorable. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and relative positioning could shift if housing turnover or consumer sentiment improves.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HD is a StrongBuy and LOW is a StrongBuy.
HD in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
HD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HD as a result. In 47 of 73 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HD just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where HD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +1.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HD advanced for three days, in 195 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
HD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for HD entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: HD's P/B Ratio (18.861) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.526). P/E Ratio (21.952) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.178). HD's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.446) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.177). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.228) among similar stocks. HD's P/S Ratio (1.781) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.937).
Momentum Indicator for LOW turns positive, indicating new upward trend
LOW saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 51 of the 82 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where LOW's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LOW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where LOW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +4.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LOW advanced for three days, in 183 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LOW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
LOW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LOW entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LOW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LOW's P/B Ratio (-14.829) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.526). P/E Ratio (16.601) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.178). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.222) is also within normal values, averaging (1.177). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.228) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.202) is also within normal values, averaging (0.937).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LOW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
HD | LOW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 7 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 93 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 14 | 6 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LOW's Valuation (84) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as HD (91). This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to HD’s over the last 12 months.
HD's Profit vs Risk Rating (89) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as LOW (93). This means that HD’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's SMR Rating (6) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as HD (14). This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to HD’s over the last 12 months.
HD's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as LOW (58). This means that HD’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as HD (61). This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to HD’s over the last 12 months.
| HD | LOW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 7 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 59% | 11 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HD’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while LOW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LOW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HD’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LOW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LOW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HD (@Home Improvement Chains) experienced а +6.30% price change this week, while LOW (@Home Improvement Chains) price change was +4.38% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Home Improvement Chains industry was +4.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.23%.
Reported Earning Dates
HD is expected to report earnings on Nov 17, 2026.
LOW is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Home Improvement Chains (+4.03% weekly)The home improvement chains industry sells home improvement merchandise and do-it-yourself repair and building goods. Customers include individual contractors or construction managers on one hand; on the other hand, there are retail consumers who’d either buy raw materials/items from the store to do a project on their own, or pay extra for installation services. Products sold include fencing supplies, lumber materials, hardware, lighting fixtures, plumbing supplies, home decor items, bathroom remodel items, roofing materials, tools and wallboard to name a few. The Home Depot Inc., Lowe’s Companies, Inc. and Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. are some of the biggest home improvement retailing companies in the U.S. Allowing all types of customers the flexibility to choose or buy products both offline and online and then having the products shipped to the respective sites/homes are some of the potential drivers of a home improvement chain’s popularity. Many big-box home improvement chains are looking to expand their overseas presence. Supply-chain efficiency and distribution management are some of the key ingredients to grow/make profit in this industry.
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LOW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LOW has been closely correlated with HD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LOW jumps, then HD could also see price increases.