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ASTS vs LTRX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) vs. Lantronix (LTRX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASTS is a pre-revenue-scale, direct-to-device satellite broadband company facing heavy cash burn and intensifying competition from SpaceX's Starlink.
- LTRX is a profitable-leaning Edge AI and Industrial IoT supplier pivoting toward unmanned systems, now debt-free with rising recurring software revenue.
- Recent momentum has diverged: ASTS has sold off sharply from its highs, while LTRX has been more range-bound despite strong fundamental progress.
- The two stocks sit in different sectors, market caps, and risk profiles, making this a contrast between speculative growth and an emerging defense-tech operator.
- Wall Street sentiment is mixed on ASTS (consensus Hold) and more constructive on LTRX (consensus Buy/Strong Buy).
Introduction
Investors weighing speculative technology exposure against a smaller, more operational growth story may find this stock comparison instructive. ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) is building a space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect ordinary smartphones directly to satellites, a capital-intensive ambition with enormous upside and equally large execution risk. LTRX (Lantronix) supplies Edge AI computing, industrial Internet of Things (IoT), and unmanned-systems technology, a business already generating meaningful revenue. Their divergent market positioning, momentum, and risk profiles make a head-to-head relative performance review useful for both growth investors and active traders monitoring sentiment shifts across the technology and defense supply chain.
ASTS Overview and Recent Performance
AST SpaceMobile is developing a low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation of BlueBird satellites intended to deliver direct-to-device cellular broadband. It partners with more than 60 mobile network operators representing roughly 3 billion subscribers, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Rakuten. In recent weeks, sentiment has been pressured by SpaceX's expansion into satellite-to-smartphone service and its acquisition of wireless spectrum, which has weighed on the stock's market positioning. Shares have declined substantially from their spring highs, and analysts note the company missed earnings estimates for several consecutive quarters as spending accelerated.
Positive developments have been offset by headwinds. Four major European carriers—Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica, and Vodafone—signed a letter of intent to explore a joint bid for satellite spectrum, a move welcomed by AST SpaceMobile, though no satellite partner has yet been selected. Meanwhile, Viasat urged the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to reject an AST SpaceMobile overseas spectrum request, and Piper Sandler downgraded the stock amid launch-schedule uncertainty. Free cash flow remains deeply negative, with analysts projecting a heavy annual cash burn, and the shares carry elevated volatility and short interest.
LTRX Overview and Recent Performance
Lantronix provides Edge AI compute, secure connectivity, and remote management solutions for industrial IoT, enterprise networking, and unmanned systems. For its most recent fiscal year, the company reported revenue of nearly $121 million, up 8% year over year, and finished the period debt-free with roughly $60 million in cash. Unmanned systems revenue reached $12.6 million, above management's prior midpoint, and the company said its drone-related engagements more than tripled during the year, supported by U.S. Army short-range reconnaissance work and NDAA-compliant (National Defense Authorization Act) and TAA-compliant (Trade Agreements Act) offerings.
Recent market activity has been choppy for LTRX, with the stock trading in a relatively narrow range despite improving fundamentals. Management guided unmanned systems to represent 15% to 20% of revenue in the coming fiscal year, and the acquisition of Vecima Networks' Industrial IoT business is expected to lift software and recurring revenue above 10% of total sales. While the company still posts modest GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net losses, non-GAAP earnings per share improved sharply, and analysts maintain a constructive consensus outlook, citing the drone and Edge AI opportunity as a key growth driver.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is business maturity. ASTS is largely pre-commercial at scale, with modest revenue today and a path to monetization that depends on spectrum authorizations, satellite launches, and carrier adoption. LTRX already generates meaningful, growing revenue and has reached a debt-free balance sheet, though it operates at a far smaller market capitalization and still reports GAAP losses.
Growth drivers also differ sharply. AST SpaceMobile's thesis rests on closing the connectivity gap in underserved areas through carrier partnerships, while facing a formidable competitor in SpaceX. Lantronix's thesis is tied to domestic drone demand, U.S. government procurement, and Edge AI adoption—supported by structural tailwinds such as restrictions on foreign-made drones. On risk, ASTS carries higher volatility, heavy cash burn, and elevated short interest, whereas LTRX faces customer concentration, supply-chain cost pressures, and dependence on federal budget cycles. Relative performance has favored the steadier operator recently, as AST SpaceMobile's sharp drawdown contrasts with Lantronix's more contained trading range.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely favor LTRX in the current environment. Lantronix exhibits more stable fundamental positioning, a cleaner balance sheet, and a clearer near-term revenue trajectory, while AST SpaceMobile's stock remains in a pronounced downtrend with heavy cash burn and competitive uncertainty. That said, ASTS retains a larger addressable market and could see sentiment re-rate quickly if launch and spectrum milestones land favorably. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting momentum and stability more than long-term valuation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASTS is a Hold and LTRX is a Hold.
ASTS's RSI Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 2 days
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASTS advanced for three days, in 234 of 270 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
ASTS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASTS as a result. In 75 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASTS turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 45 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
ASTS moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASTS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASTS entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.117) is normal, around the industry mean (5.210). P/E Ratio (-15.037) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.688). ASTS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.127) among similar stocks. ASTS's P/S Ratio (147.059) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (11.937).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ASTS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ASTS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
LTRX in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LTRX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 17 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LTRX as a result. In 67 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LTRX turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
LTRX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LTRX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for LTRX entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where LTRX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LTRX advanced for three days, in 227 of 283 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
LTRX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.030) is normal, around the industry mean (5.210). P/E Ratio (-51.650) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.688). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.540) is also within normal values, averaging (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.127) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.800) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LTRX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LTRX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
ASTS | LTRX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 11 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 92 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LTRX's Valuation (11) in the Computer Communications industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASTS (53) in the null industry. This means that LTRX’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASTS’s over the last 12 months.
ASTS's Profit vs Risk Rating (83) in the null industry is in the same range as LTRX (100) in the Computer Communications industry. This means that ASTS’s stock grew similarly to LTRX’s over the last 12 months.
LTRX's SMR Rating (92) in the Computer Communications industry is in the same range as ASTS (98) in the null industry. This means that LTRX’s stock grew similarly to ASTS’s over the last 12 months.
LTRX's Price Growth Rating (63) in the Computer Communications industry is in the same range as ASTS (91) in the null industry. This means that LTRX’s stock grew similarly to ASTS’s over the last 12 months.
ASTS's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the null industry is in the same range as LTRX (42) in the Computer Communications industry. This means that ASTS’s stock grew similarly to LTRX’s over the last 12 months.
| ASTS | LTRX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 87% | 11 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 85% | 4 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 83% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASTS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while LTRX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASTS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LTRX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASTS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LTRX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASTS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LTRX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ASTS (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а -21.09% price change this week, while LTRX (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was -14.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was -10.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was -25.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASTS is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
LTRX is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (-10.09% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
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LTRX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LTRX has been loosely correlated with CRNT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LTRX jumps, then CRNT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LTRX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTRX | 100% | +3.30% | ||
| CRNT - LTRX | 54% Loosely correlated | +8.06% | ||
| ASTS - LTRX | 53% Loosely correlated | +7.05% | ||
| HLIT - LTRX | 51% Loosely correlated | +2.15% | ||
| ONDS - LTRX | 51% Loosely correlated | +18.03% | ||
| VSAT - LTRX | 51% Loosely correlated | +7.70% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| SMHX | 46.90 | 2.13 | +4.75% |
| VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) | |||
| JELM | 25.16 | 0.06 | +0.23% |
| Janus Henderson Equity Linked Moderate Income ETF (JELM) | |||
| CGDV | 47.42 | -0.03 | -0.06% |
| Capital Group Dividend Value ETF (CGDV) | |||
| PID | 22.35 | -0.09 | -0.42% |
| Invesco International Dividend Achievers ETF (PID) | |||
| CPNM | 26.99 | -0.12 | -0.43% |
| Calamos Nasdaq-100 Structured Alt Protection ETF - March (CPNM) | |||