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ASTS vs VSAT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) vs. Viasat (VSAT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) focuses on innovative space-based cellular broadband directly to unmodified smartphones, boasting a 1-year return of 197%, but faces execution risks from recent satellite setbacks.
- Viasat (VSAT) delivers established satellite broadband for mobility and defense, with superior YTD gains of 103% and recent positive catalysts like ViaSat-3 launches.
- Recent market activity shows volatility for both: ASTS down amid BlueBird-7 failure despite FCC approvals, while VSAT up on board additions and connectivity deals.
- VSAT exhibits stronger relative momentum and lower beta (1.67 vs. ASTS's 2.60), suggesting better stability in satellite communications sector.
- Both stocks trade at premiums reflecting growth potential, but VSAT's established revenue ($4.5B) contrasts ASTS's pre-commercial phase.
- Tickeron's AI models favor VSAT for near-term trend consistency amid current market positioning.
Introduction
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Viasat (VSAT) operate in the burgeoning satellite communications sector, delivering broadband connectivity where terrestrial networks fall short. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and market sentiment, aiding traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term growth in space-based telecom. With rising demand for global coverage in mobility, defense, and IoT (Internet of Things), these stocks highlight trade-offs between disruptive innovation and proven infrastructure in a competitive landscape dominated by low-Earth orbit advancements.
ASTS Overview and Recent Performance
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), headquartered in Midland, Texas, develops a space-based cellular broadband network using BlueBird satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO). The service connects standard smartphones directly without modifications, targeting commercial and government users beyond terrestrial coverage. With a market cap of approximately $29 billion, the stock has delivered a 197% 1-year return but modest YTD gains of 3.33%.
In recent weeks, ASTS experienced volatility, surging on FCC approval for its satellite constellation but declining after the BlueBird-7 satellite failed to reach orbit via Blue Origin launch. A beta of 2.60 reflects high sensitivity to market swings, while ongoing losses (TTM EPS of -1.34) underscore its pre-revenue stage. Sentiment hinges on deployment milestones and partnerships with mobile operators, balancing innovation hype against execution hurdles.
VSAT Overview and Recent Performance
Viasat (VSAT), based in Carlsbad, California, is a global communications provider offering satellite broadband for mobility, residential, enterprise, and defense applications. Its segments include communication services with in-flight connectivity and advanced technologies like cybersecurity. Market cap stands at $9.5 billion, with impressive YTD return of 103% and 666% over one year.
Recent market activity propelled VSAT higher, fueled by successful ViaSat-3 F3 satellite launch and signal acquisition, plus deals like Jetstar in-flight connectivity and board additions via Carronade agreement. Beta at 1.67 indicates moderate volatility, though TTM EPS of -2.60 signals profitability challenges amid debt. Positive catalysts have boosted sentiment, emphasizing operational progress in aviation and defense.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) pursues a disruptive direct-to-device model in LEO, emphasizing partnerships with mobile network operators for untapped rural and maritime coverage, but lacks recurring revenue versus Viasat's ($4.5B annually) diversified streams from government contracts and aviation. Growth drivers for ASTS include FCC nods and constellation expansion, contrasting VSAT's mature ViaSat-3 deployments enhancing capacity.
Recent momentum favors VSAT with 103% YTD versus ASTS's 3%, though ASTS leads longer-term (197% 1-year). Risk factors: ASTS's launch delays and high burn rate amplify volatility (beta 2.60), while VSAT navigates debt and competition from Starlink (beta 1.67). Sector exposure overlaps in satellite broadband, but VSAT gains from defense stability; market sentiment tilts toward VSAT's execution amid space hype.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors Viasat (VSAT) due to superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and catalysts like satellite launches and strategic deals, positioning it for higher near-term probability of relative strength. While AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) holds disruptive potential from regulatory wins, its setback-driven volatility reduces short-term appeal in satellite stock comparison.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASTS is a Hold and VSAT is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASTS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileVSAT’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ASTS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VSAT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASTS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VSAT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASTS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VSAT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASTS (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а +27.02% price change this week, while VSAT (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was +11.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was +2.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +15.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +70.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASTS is expected to report earnings on Aug 17, 2026.
VSAT is expected to report earnings on May 26, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (+2.98% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
| ASTS | VSAT | ASTS / VSAT | |
| Capitalization | 24.8B | 10.1B | 246% |
| EBITDA | -369.93M | 1.5B | -25% |
| Gain YTD | 14.292 | 115.409 | 12% |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | N/A | - |
| Revenue | 70.9M | 4.62B | 2% |
| Total Cash | 2.34B | 1.35B | 174% |
| Total Debt | 2.24B | 6.78B | 33% |
ASTS | VSAT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 99 Overvalued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 74 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 96 | 93 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VSAT's Valuation (77) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as ASTS (99) in the null industry. This means that VSAT’s stock grew similarly to ASTS’s over the last 12 months.
ASTS's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VSAT (74) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that ASTS’s stock grew somewhat faster than VSAT’s over the last 12 months.
VSAT's SMR Rating (93) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as ASTS (96) in the null industry. This means that VSAT’s stock grew similarly to ASTS’s over the last 12 months.
VSAT's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as ASTS (44) in the null industry. This means that VSAT’s stock grew similarly to ASTS’s over the last 12 months.
ASTS's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for VSAT (100) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that ASTS’s stock grew significantly faster than VSAT’s over the last 12 months.
| ASTS | VSAT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 87% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 87% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 5 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 80% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 78% |
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ASTS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASTS has been loosely correlated with TSAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ASTS jumps, then TSAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASTS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 100% | +10.96% | ||
| TSAT - ASTS | 49% Loosely correlated | +0.65% | ||
| VSAT - ASTS | 45% Loosely correlated | +5.17% | ||
| S - ASTS | 44% Loosely correlated | +2.67% | ||
| ONDS - ASTS | 43% Loosely correlated | +26.35% | ||
| LTRX - ASTS | 40% Loosely correlated | +5.06% | ||
More | ||||
VSAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VSAT has been loosely correlated with ASTS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if VSAT jumps, then ASTS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VSAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSAT | 100% | +5.17% | ||
| ASTS - VSAT | 45% Loosely correlated | +10.96% | ||
| TSAT - VSAT | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.65% | ||
| GILT - VSAT | 43% Loosely correlated | +2.75% | ||
| CIEN - VSAT | 40% Loosely correlated | +2.37% | ||
| ONDS - VSAT | 38% Loosely correlated | +26.35% | ||
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