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ASTS vs VSAT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) vs. Viasat (VSAT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is a pre-revenue-scale, high-growth direct-to-cell satellite play that has pulled back sharply from its highs on launch-execution and SpaceX competitive concerns.
- Viasat (VSAT) is an established satellite communications operator showing strong 2026 momentum, positive free cash flow, and a record order backlog.
- The two stocks offer contrasting risk profiles: ASTS is a momentum-driven, capital-intensive story stock, while VSAT is a more diversified, revenue-generating incumbent.
- Relative performance has diverged materially in 2026, with VSAT advancing significantly while ASTS trades well below its prior peak.
- Both names are exposed to the same macro theme — satellite connectivity and direct-to-device services — but occupy very different stages of maturity.
Introduction
Satellite communications has become one of the most closely watched corners of the technology market, driven by rising demand for space-based broadband and direct-to-device connectivity. This stock comparison examines ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) and VSAT (Viasat), two companies pursuing adjacent but distinct strategies within that theme. AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular network to connect ordinary smartphones, while Viasat operates a broad satellite and defense communications business. Investors weighing high-growth speculative opportunity against a more established operator will find this contrast relevant when evaluating relative performance and market positioning.
ASTS Overview and Recent Performance
AST SpaceMobile is developing a low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation of large "BlueBird" satellites designed to deliver broadband directly to standard mobile phones, bypassing traditional ground infrastructure. The company holds partnerships with more than 60 mobile network operators covering roughly 3 billion subscribers and has reported a contracted revenue backlog near $1.3 billion.
In recent weeks, however, the stock has experienced notable volatility and downward pressure. Shares have fallen substantially from their earlier 2026 highs, with relative performance turning clearly negative for the year. Sentiment shifted after SpaceX announced a large low-band spectrum acquisition, intensifying concerns about competition in direct-to-cell services. Piper Sandler downgraded the stock and cut its price target sharply, citing lower confidence in the pace of satellite launches, while Deutsche Bank countered with an upgrade, arguing the pullback created opportunity. The central tension is execution: ASTS remains heavily cash-burning, with limited current revenue and a launch schedule that carries meaningful risk, even as its long-term addressable market remains large.
VSAT Overview and Recent Performance
Viasat is a diversified satellite and wireless communications company serving aviation, maritime, government, and fixed-broadband customers, including its integrated Inmarsat business. Its scale is substantially larger than AST SpaceMobile's, with roughly $4.6 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue and a record order backlog of about $4.1 billion, up 15% year over year.
Recent market activity has been notably strong for VSAT. The stock has risen significantly in 2026, supported by improving cash generation — with positive free cash flow across several consecutive quarters — and double-digit growth in its Defense and Advanced Technologies segment. The company is also progressing its ViaSat-3 satellite fleet and a shared-infrastructure initiative called Equitas alongside partner Space42. Counterbalancing these positives are a still-elevated debt load, a shrinking legacy fixed-broadband segment, and a recent bout of volatility tied to a SpaceX regulatory dispute. On balance, VSAT's momentum reflects a company transitioning from heavy investment toward steadier cash flow, rather than a pre-revenue growth story.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge across nearly every operational dimension. Business model: AST SpaceMobile is a capital-intensive, largely pre-revenue builder of a direct-to-cell constellation, while Viasat is a revenue-generating operator serving aviation, maritime, government, and defense customers. Growth drivers: ASTS is tied to satellite deployment and mobile-operator adoption; VSAT is driven by backlog conversion, defense demand, and expanding satellite capacity. Momentum: VSAT has delivered strong 2026 gains, whereas ASTS has experienced a pronounced drawdown. Risk factors: ASTS faces launch risk, heavy cash burn, and SpaceX competition; VSAT contends with leverage, a declining legacy broadband base, and regulatory friction. Sentiment: Wall Street remains divided on ASTS, with both downgrades and upgrades in recent weeks, while VSAT's rally has been supported by improving fundamentals and takeover speculation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VSAT at this juncture. Viasat's established revenue base, positive free cash flow, record backlog, and stronger 2026 momentum present a more stable and confirmed trend profile. AST SpaceMobile, by contrast, offers higher optionality and a larger long-term addressable market, but its near-term trajectory is marked by elevated volatility, cash burn, and execution uncertainty. In probabilistic terms, the AI would assign a higher likelihood of sustained positive momentum to VSAT, while treating ASTS as a higher-risk, catalyst-dependent opportunity that could reward patient investors if launch execution improves.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASTS is a Hold and VSAT is a Hold.
ASTS's RSI Oscillator is sitting in oversold zone for 2 days
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASTS advanced for three days, in 234 of 270 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
ASTS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASTS as a result. In 75 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASTS turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 45 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
ASTS moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASTS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASTS entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.117) is normal, around the industry mean (5.210). P/E Ratio (-15.037) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.688). ASTS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.127) among similar stocks. ASTS's P/S Ratio (147.059) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (11.937).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ASTS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ASTS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
VSAT's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for VSAT entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 191 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 164 of the 191 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VSAT turned negative on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
VSAT moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VSAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
VSAT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VSAT's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VSAT as a result. In 76 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The 10-day moving average for VSAT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +17.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VSAT advanced for three days, in 221 of 286 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.899) is normal, around the industry mean (5.210). VSAT's P/E Ratio (-319.750) is considerably lower than the industry average of (3.688). VSAT's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.127) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.091) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VSAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VSAT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
ASTS | VSAT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 3 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 89 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VSAT's Valuation (3) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASTS (53) in the null industry. This means that VSAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASTS’s over the last 12 months.
ASTS's Profit vs Risk Rating (83) in the null industry is in the same range as VSAT (89) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that ASTS’s stock grew similarly to VSAT’s over the last 12 months.
VSAT's SMR Rating (91) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as ASTS (98) in the null industry. This means that VSAT’s stock grew similarly to ASTS’s over the last 12 months.
VSAT's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASTS (91) in the null industry. This means that VSAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASTS’s over the last 12 months.
ASTS's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the null industry is in the same range as VSAT (35) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that ASTS’s stock grew similarly to VSAT’s over the last 12 months.
| ASTS | VSAT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 83% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 87% | 12 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 85% | 4 days ago 82% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 86% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASTS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while VSAT’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASTS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VSAT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASTS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VSAT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASTS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VSAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASTS (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а -21.09% price change this week, while VSAT (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was -16.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was -10.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was -25.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASTS is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
VSAT is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (-10.09% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
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ASTS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASTS has been loosely correlated with VSAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ASTS jumps, then VSAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASTS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 100% | +7.05% | ||
| VSAT - ASTS | 62% Loosely correlated | +7.70% | ||
| TSAT - ASTS | 58% Loosely correlated | +12.38% | ||
| ONDS - ASTS | 58% Loosely correlated | +18.03% | ||
| LTRX - ASTS | 55% Loosely correlated | +3.30% | ||
| GILT - ASTS | 50% Loosely correlated | +7.63% | ||
More | ||||
VSAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VSAT has been loosely correlated with ASTS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if VSAT jumps, then ASTS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VSAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSAT | 100% | +7.70% | ||
| ASTS - VSAT | 62% Loosely correlated | +7.05% | ||
| TSAT - VSAT | 59% Loosely correlated | +12.38% | ||
| GILT - VSAT | 55% Loosely correlated | +7.63% | ||
| LTRX - VSAT | 52% Loosely correlated | +3.30% | ||
| ONDS - VSAT | 51% Loosely correlated | +18.03% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| IVEP | 21.87 | 0.58 | +2.73% |
| Dan IVES Wedbush AI Power & Infrastructure ETF (IVEP) | |||
| SFTY | 30.69 | 0.12 | +0.39% |
| Horizon Managed Risk ETF (SFTY) | |||
| TRND | 35.22 | 0.09 | +0.25% |
| Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF (TRND) | |||
| VTIP | 48.79 | 0.01 | +0.02% |
| Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP) | |||
| CAPE | 32.12 | -0.62 | -1.91% |
| DoubleLine Shiller CAPE U.S. Equities ETF (CAPE) | |||