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AU vs HMY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AngloGold Ashanti (AU) vs. Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AU has significantly outperformed HMY over the past year with returns around 136%, compared to HMY's modest 5% gain, driven by stronger production growth and higher gold prices.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks experiencing pullbacks, with AU down about 10% in the past month and HMY down 2%, amid broader gold sector volatility.
- AU trades at a higher forward P/E ratio of approximately 17.5 versus HMY's 10, reflecting premium valuation for its diversified operations but offering higher liquidity with $4.4 billion.
- Year-to-date, AU is up 6-8% while HMY is down 22%, highlighting AU's relative stability in recent weeks.
- Both companies benefit from elevated gold prices, but AU's global footprint across Africa, Australia, and the Americas contrasts with HMY's primary South African focus, exposing HMY to regional risks.
- Tickeron's AI robots feature gold miners strategies with up to 61% annualized returns, underscoring sector potential amid inflation fears.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AU (AngloGold Ashanti plc) and HMY (Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited), two prominent gold miners navigating a volatile precious metals market. Gold stocks like these attract investors seeking hedges against inflation and geopolitical tensions, as well as traders capitalizing on price swings tied to metal spot prices. With recent gold price fluctuations influencing sentiment, this analysis highlights their relative performance, business models, and market positioning to aid informed decision-making in the current environment.
AU Overview and Recent Performance
AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) is a global gold producer with operations in Africa, Australia, and the Americas, exploring and extracting gold alongside by-products like silver. Its flagship assets include the Geita mine in Tanzania. In recent market activity, AU shares have traded around $90-93, reflecting a pullback of about 10% over the past month amid broader sector pressures, though year-to-date gains stand at 6-8% and one-year returns exceed 135%. Sentiment has been shaped by record 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $6.3 billion (up 129% year-over-year), driven by 16% higher gold production from assets like the acquired Sukari mine, and strong free cash flow of $2.9 billion. Recent developments include a debt tender offer and positive analyst notes on Nevada reserves (4.9 million ounces), supporting reserve growth to 36.5 million ounces. However, higher expected costs in 2026 and EPS estimate revisions have tempered short-term momentum.
HMY Overview and Recent Performance
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is South Africa's largest gold producer by volume, with underground and surface operations in the Witwatersrand Basin, plus interests in Papua New Guinea and Australia, targeting gold, uranium, silver, and copper. Shares recently hovered near $15.50, with a 2% monthly decline but higher volume reflecting trader interest. Year-to-date performance lags at -22%, and one-year returns are around 5%, underperforming the sector amid production challenges. Key influences include strong interim six-month results with 39% adjusted EBITDA growth and doubled dividends, fueled by higher gold prices and 724,099 ounces produced in H1 fiscal 2026. Operational hurdles like weather disruptions, safety stoppages, and a fatal incident at Target 1 mine have pressured output, with fiscal 2026 guidance at 1.4-1.5 million ounces. Analyst upgrades, such as Morgan Stanley to Overweight, signal improving sentiment despite regional risks in South Africa.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AU and HMY operate in gold mining but differ in scale and exposure: AU's diversified portfolio spans three continents for broader risk mitigation, while HMY's South Africa-heavy model (nine underground operations) ties performance to local factors like labor and power stability. Growth drivers favor AU with 16% production upside in 2025 versus HMY's flat-to-slight dip amid weather and safety issues. Recent momentum shows AU's superior long-term gains (YTD +6-8%, 1Y +136%) over HMY's (-22% YTD, +5% 1Y), though both face monthly dips. Risk factors include AU's higher costs and debt activity versus HMY's operational interruptions and currency volatility (ZAR-denominated revenue). Sector exposure is pure-play gold for both, but AU's $46B market cap dwarfs HMY's $10B, implying greater liquidity. Market sentiment leans toward AU on stronger fundamentals, yet HMY's lower P/E (10 vs. 17.5) and recent upgrades suggest value appeal in a gold rebound.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI would currently favor AU over HMY, based on trend consistency from robust 2025 production and cash flow metrics, plus superior relative positioning with over 130% one-year returns and growing reserves. AU's global diversification and positive analyst targets (average $120) indicate higher probability of outperformance amid sustained gold demand, though HMY's valuation discount could narrow gaps if South African operations stabilize.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AU is a StrongBuy and HMY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AU’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileHMY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AU’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- HMY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AU’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HMY’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- HMY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AU (@Precious Metals) experienced а -14.37% price change this week, while HMY (@Precious Metals) price change was -8.65% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -6.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +62.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
AU is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-6.12% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| AU | HMY | AU / HMY | |
| Capitalization | 45.2B | 10.2B | 443% |
| EBITDA | 5.76B | 31.8B | 18% |
| Gain YTD | 6.521 | -14.474 | -45% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.12 | 10.65 | 123% |
| Revenue | 11.2B | 81.2B | 14% |
| Total Cash | 3.15B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 2.29B | N/A | - |
AU | HMY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 5 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 4 Undervalued | 9 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 49 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 82 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AU's Valuation (4) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (9). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
AU's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (49). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
HMY's SMR Rating (20) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as AU (21). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to AU’s over the last 12 months.
AU's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (60). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
AU's P/E Growth Rating (53) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (82). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
| AU | HMY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 85% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 83% | 10 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 74% | 6 days ago 79% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 83% |
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AU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AU has been closely correlated with GFI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AU jumps, then GFI could also see price increases.