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AU vs HMY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AngloGold Ashanti (AU) vs. Harmony Gold Mining Company (HMY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AU and HMY are established gold mining companies with operations primarily in Africa, exposed to gold price movements and operational cost pressures.
- In recent market activity, AU has reported record free cash flow and announced a proposed $2 billion share repurchase program, supporting its balance sheet strength.
- HMY has received analyst upgrades, including a Buy rating from Zacks, driven by improved earnings estimates for the fiscal year ending June 2026.
- Year-to-date performance shows divergence, with HMY exhibiting positive returns in some metrics while AU has experienced a pullback from earlier 2026 highs.
- Recent weeks have featured volatility for both stocks amid broader gold sector dynamics, with AU highlighting production stability and HMY focusing on shareholder payouts and guidance.
- Risk factors include mining operational challenges and cost inflation for both, though AU emphasizes net cash position improvements.
Introduction
This comparison examines AU (AngloGold Ashanti plc) and HMY (Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited), two prominent gold mining stocks listed on major U.S. exchanges. Both companies operate in the precious metals sector and respond to similar macroeconomic drivers such as gold prices, currency fluctuations, and production costs. The analysis focuses on recent performance trends, business fundamentals, and market positioning to assist institutional investors, active traders, and those evaluating relative value within the gold mining industry. Readers seeking data-driven insights into sector peers may find this overview relevant for portfolio construction or tactical allocation decisions.
AU Overview and Recent Performance
AngloGold Ashanti plc is a global gold producer with significant operations in Africa and other regions. In recent weeks, the stock has traded around the $79–$80 level following a period of consolidation after reaching highs near $124 earlier in 2026. Recent market activity has been influenced by the company’s strong Q1 2026 results, which included record free cash flow of $1.2 billion and an interim dividend declaration of $585 million. A proposed $2 billion off-market share repurchase program has also drawn attention, alongside financing initiatives to extend mine life at key assets such as Geita. Sentiment has reflected both operational resilience and broader gold price dynamics, contributing to year-to-date returns in negative territory amid volatility.
HMY Overview and Recent Performance
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is a South African-focused gold miner with additional international exposure. In recent market activity, shares have fluctuated around the $15–$16 range, showing mixed daily moves including gains of over 2% on certain sessions. Performance has been shaped by analyst upgrades, notably a Buy rating from Zacks linked to improved earnings estimates, and ongoing production guidance for fiscal 2026. The company has highlighted shareholder returns through dividends and operational updates, while navigating sector-wide cost pressures. Year-to-date results have varied by measurement period, with some metrics indicating positive returns amid volatility tied to gold market conditions and company-specific developments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AU operates as a larger-scale global gold producer with a diversified asset base, while HMY maintains a more concentrated focus on South African mines alongside select international sites, creating differences in geographic and operational risk profiles. Growth drivers for AU include recent free cash flow generation and capital return initiatives such as the proposed buyback, whereas HMY emphasizes earnings revisions and production targets. Recent momentum has favored AU on balance-sheet metrics and HMY on analyst sentiment upgrades. Both face sector exposure to gold prices and input cost inflation, though AU reports a stronger net cash position. Market sentiment reflects shared volatility but differentiated catalysts, with trade-offs centered on scale versus regional operational intensity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in free cash flow metrics, balance sheet stability indicators, and relative positioning amid recent analyst activity, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modest probabilistic edge to AU over HMY in the near term. This assessment draws from documented catalysts including share repurchase plans and cash generation without implying certainty or forward guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AU is a Buy and HMY is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AU’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileHMY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AU’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HMY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AU’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HMY’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AU’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- HMY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AU (@Precious Metals) experienced а -0.44% price change this week, while HMY (@Precious Metals) price change was -0.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -1.69%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was -26.90%.
Reported Earning Dates
AU is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
HMY is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-1.69% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| AU | HMY | AU / HMY | |
| Capitalization | 40.1B | 9.86B | 407% |
| EBITDA | 6.37B | 31.8B | 20% |
| Gain YTD | -4.273 | -17.713 | 24% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.63 | 10.20 | 104% |
| Revenue | 11.8B | 81.2B | 15% |
| Total Cash | 2.78B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 1.79B | N/A | - |
AU | HMY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | 9 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 82 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AU's Valuation (5) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (9). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
AU's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (48). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
AU's SMR Rating (22) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (26). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
AU's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (54). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
AU's P/E Growth Rating (82) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (82). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
| AU | HMY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 82% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 87% | 4 days ago 85% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | 4 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 82% | 13 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 74% | 15 days ago 78% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 81% |
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HMY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HMY has been closely correlated with GFI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HMY jumps, then GFI could also see price increases.