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GFI vs HMY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Gold Fields (GFI) vs. Harmony Gold (HMY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both GFI and HMY are South Africa-based gold producers benefiting from elevated gold prices in recent market activity.
- GFI (Gold Fields Limited) maintains a larger market capitalization and diversified operations across multiple continents, including recent project advancements.
- HMY (Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited) has expanded into copper via acquisitions, contributing to robust full-year earnings expectations for fiscal 2026.
- Recent performance for both stocks reflects sector-wide momentum tied to gold prices, with HMY reporting production guidance met for the 11th consecutive year.
- GFI highlighted strong first-half 2026 earnings growth and maintained full-year production guidance amid operational updates.
- Relative positioning shows trade-offs in scale versus diversification, with both exhibiting sensitivity to commodity prices and operational execution.
Introduction
Gold Fields Limited (GFI) and Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) represent two prominent players in the global gold mining sector. Both companies operate primarily in South Africa with international assets, making them relevant for investors and traders seeking exposure to precious metals amid fluctuating commodity prices. This comparison examines their business models, recent operational results, and market positioning to assist those evaluating relative performance in the current environment. Professional and retail participants monitoring gold sector dynamics may find the analysis useful for understanding key contrasts.
GFI Overview and Recent Performance
Gold Fields Limited operates as a diversified gold producer with mines in Australia, South Africa, Ghana, Peru, Chile, and a project in Canada. In recent weeks, the company reported expected headline earnings per share for the first half of 2026 ranging from US$1.98 to US$2.18, representing substantial year-over-year growth driven by higher gold-equivalent ounces sold and realized prices. Production remained on track, with full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed toward the upper end of prior ranges. Additional developments include progress at the Windfall project and an investment increasing its stake in a Suriname-focused explorer. Market sentiment has responded to these operational updates alongside broader gold price strength.
HMY Overview and Recent Performance
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited focuses on gold production with growing copper exposure through operations in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Recent market activity highlighted the company meeting its annual gold production guidance for the 11th consecutive year, with fiscal 2026 output in line with targets and all-in sustaining costs within guidance. Earnings expectations for the year ended June 2026 point to significant increases, supported by higher average gold prices received and contributions from the acquired CSA copper mine. A results presentation scheduled for late August underscores ongoing execution discipline and portfolio diversification efforts.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business model terms, GFI emphasizes broader geographic diversification across established gold assets, while HMY pursues copper integration for revenue stability. Growth drivers differ with GFI advancing development-stage projects and HMY leveraging recent acquisitions for immediate production contributions. Recent momentum reflects commodity price tailwinds for both, though HMY noted stronger relative earnings uplift from operational consistency. Risk factors include cost inflation and regulatory environments common to the sector, with GFI carrying a larger balance sheet scale. Market sentiment remains tied to gold price trends, positioning the stocks as complements rather than direct substitutes for sector exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in production guidance adherence, earnings momentum from recent reporting, and relative positioning within the gold sector, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic preference toward GFI for its scale and project pipeline visibility. HMY demonstrates competitive strengths in diversification and earnings growth potential. This assessment draws from verifiable operational metrics and does not constitute investment advice.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFI is a Hold and HMY is a Hold.
| GFI | HMY | GFI / HMY | |
| Capitalization | 40.6B | 12.8B | 317% |
| EBITDA | 7B | 31.8B | 22% |
| Gain YTD | 6.307 | 7.835 | 80% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.19 | 7.15 | 128% |
| Revenue | 11.4B | 81.2B | 14% |
| Total Cash | 2.03B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 2.64B | N/A | - |
GFI | HMY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | 10 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 24 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GFI's Valuation (5) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (10). This means that GFI’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
HMY's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (36). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
HMY's SMR Rating (20) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (24). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
HMY's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (39). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
HMY's P/E Growth Rating (87) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (90). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
| GFI | HMY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 83% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 81% | 9 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 84% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while HMY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GFI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HMY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HMY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- HMY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GFI (@Precious Metals) experienced а -4.85% price change this week, while HMY (@Precious Metals) price change was +1.83% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -3.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.84%.
Reported Earning Dates
GFI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
HMY is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-3.23% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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GFI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFI has been closely correlated with AU. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GFI jumps, then AU could also see price increases.
HMY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HMY has been closely correlated with GFI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HMY jumps, then GFI could also see price increases.