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HMY vs KGC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. Kinross Gold (KGC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both HMY and KGC have gained from sustained high gold prices in recent market activity, with year-to-date (YTD) returns of approximately 16% for HMY and 14% for KGC.
- HMY offers a lower trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.8 versus KGC's 16.7, alongside a higher dividend yield of 2.43% compared to 0.42%.
- KGC demonstrates greater scale with a market capitalization of $39 billion against HMY's $10.6 billion and boasts superior profit margins around 34%.
- HMY's beta of 0.80 indicates lower volatility than KGC's 1.40, appealing to risk-averse investors.
- Recent earnings highlight strength: HMY reported 61% operating profit growth in its half-year results, while KGC achieved record free cash flow (FCF) in Q4.
- Tickeron's AI robots include strategies trading HMY among gold producers, showing positive performance in volatile conditions.
Introduction
In the current bullish gold market driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, gold mining stocks like HMY and KGC offer traders and investors exposure to rising metal prices. This comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and relative strengths, helping active traders assess momentum plays and long-term investors evaluate value and stability. With gold near record highs extending into 2026, understanding sector peers like these mid-tier producers aids in portfolio positioning and relative performance decisions.
HMY Overview and Recent Performance
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) is a South Africa-based gold producer with operations in Australia and Papua New Guinea. In recent weeks, the stock has shown resilience amid elevated gold prices, trading around $16.78 with a YTD gain of 16%. Key influences include robust half-year results with 61% operating profit growth and full-year guidance on track, boosted by higher gold realizations and cost controls. Sentiment has improved on strong cash flows and a low P/E ratio, though South African operational risks and a 52-week range of $12.58-$26.06 reflect volatility tied to commodity cycles.
KGC Overview and Recent Performance
Kinross Gold (KGC), a Canadian miner with assets in the Americas, West Africa, and Russia, has delivered solid results in recent market activity. Shares hover near $32.58, up 14% YTD, amid anticipation for strong Q1 earnings. Recent Q4 highlights featured record margins, 77% FCF surge to support debt reduction, and production stability despite higher costs. Elevated gold prices have driven a 126% one-year gain, with a 52-week range of $13.28-$39.11 underscoring momentum, though higher beta signals greater sensitivity to market swings.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page curates the top 25 performers from over 350 AI trading bots that analyze thousands of tickers across diverse strategies, timeframes, and styles. These bots excel in current conditions, boasting win rates of 55-75%, annualized returns from +30% to +170%, and max drawdowns under $50,000 in many cases. Examples include swing traders in industrials (+34% return, 62% win rate) and a gold producers bot featuring HMY, NEM, GFI, and AU (+30% return, 55% win rate over 4 days). Short-term scalpers and long-term trend followers adapt to volatility. Explore these for data-driven insights tailored to today's markets.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Both HMY and KGC focus on gold production, but HMY emphasizes South African underground mines while KGC diversifies across open-pit operations globally. Growth drivers include steady output and high gold prices, yet KGC's larger reserves support longer-term expansion. Recent momentum favors KGC's record profitability versus HMY's value metrics. Risk factors differ: HMY faces higher country-specific risks and debt/equity of 25% (versus KGC's 9%), with lower beta offering stability trade-offs. Sector exposure is pure-play gold for both, but market sentiment leans toward KGC's scale and FCF for resilience amid gold's 2026 rally.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors KGC with moderate conviction, citing its superior scale, lower leverage, record FCF generation, and consistent trend alignment in the gold uptrend. HMY's value appeal and dividend provide counterbalance, but KGC's relative positioning suggests higher probability of outperformance in sustained high-price environments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HMY is a Hold and KGC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HMY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileKGC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- HMY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KGC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HMY’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KGC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HMY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KGC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HMY (@Precious Metals) experienced а +11.83% price change this week, while KGC (@Precious Metals) price change was +7.28% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -5.95%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.96%.
Reported Earning Dates
HMY is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
KGC is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-5.95% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| HMY | KGC | HMY / KGC | |
| Capitalization | 9.93B | 31.2B | 32% |
| EBITDA | 31.8B | 5.15B | 618% |
| Gain YTD | -11.130 | -5.043 | 221% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.71 | 11.35 | 94% |
| Revenue | 81.2B | 7.96B | 1,020% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 2.19B | - |
| Total Debt | N/A | 738M | - |
HMY | KGC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 28 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 36 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 26 | 27 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 81 | 79 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HMY's Valuation (9) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (28). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to KGC’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's Profit vs Risk Rating (36) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (49). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
HMY's SMR Rating (26) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (27). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to KGC’s over the last 12 months.
HMY's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (49). This means that HMY’s stock grew similarly to KGC’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's P/E Growth Rating (79) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (81). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
| HMY | KGC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 85% | 5 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 79% | 5 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 80% | 5 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 75% | 5 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 83% | 5 days ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 80% | 5 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 81% | 7 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 78% | 5 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 80% | 5 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 83% | 5 days ago 60% |
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KGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KGC has been closely correlated with WPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KGC jumps, then WPM could also see price increases.