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AWK vs HTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) vs. H2O America (HTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AWK and HTO are regulated water utilities providing essential services, appealing to income-focused investors seeking defensive positions in volatile markets.
- AWK boasts a larger market capitalization of approximately $24.9 billion and reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS (earnings per share) guidance of $6.02–$6.12 alongside an 8.2% dividend increase.
- HTO, with a $2.4 billion market cap, reported 9.4% year-over-year quarterly revenue growth and 14.9% earnings growth in its recent quarter.
- Recent market activity saw AWK decline about 5.7% over the past month, outpacing HTO's milder 2.9% drop.
- AWK trades at a P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 22.6, higher than HTO's 19.4, reflecting its scale but potentially richer valuation.
- Analysts view both positively, with HTO rated "Strong Buy" and an average target implying upside.
Introduction
This comparison pits AWK (American Water Works Company, Inc.) against HTO (H2O America), two prominent players in the U.S. regulated water utility sector. Both companies deliver essential water and wastewater services, benefiting from stable demand and regulatory protections that provide predictable cash flows. Investors and traders interested in defensive sectors—those offering dividends, low volatility, and resilience during economic uncertainty—may find value in evaluating their relative performance. Recent earnings reports, dividend actions, and market positioning highlight contrasts in scale, growth trajectories, and sentiment, aiding decisions on portfolio allocation in today's environment.
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) Overview and Recent Performance
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) is the largest U.S. investor-owned water and wastewater utility, serving millions across multiple states through regulated operations. In recent market activity, AWK shares have faced downward pressure, declining around 5.7% over the past month amid broader utility sector softness. The stock's first-quarter 2026 results showed adjusted EPS of $1.01, missing estimates by 7.5%, though revenues rose year-over-year; management reaffirmed full-year EPS guidance and announced an 8.2% dividend hike to $0.895 per share. A proposed $63 billion merger with Essential Utilities adds a key catalyst under regulatory scrutiny, influencing sentiment alongside infrastructure investments. Trading near $127 with year-to-date gains of 1.7%, AWK reflects stability tempered by earnings disappointment.
H2O America (HTO) Overview and Recent Performance
H2O America (HTO), formerly SJW Group and rebranded in May 2025, operates water utilities and related services primarily on the U.S. West Coast and Texas. Shares have dipped about 2.9% in recent weeks, holding steadier than peers amid neutral technicals. First-quarter 2026 results featured adjusted EPS of $0.50 in line with guidance, with quarterly revenue up 9.4% and earnings growth of 14.9% year-over-year, supported by a $2.7 billion five-year capital plan (80% regulatory recovery-eligible). Trading around $57 with a "Strong Buy" consensus and $64 target, HTO benefits from growth momentum and board additions, though high debt/equity at 102% warrants monitoring. Performance underscores operational execution in a rebranded, focused entity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AWK and HTO share core regulated water utility models, emphasizing infrastructure capex (capital expenditures) and rate recovery for steady revenues. AWK's scale—10x HTO's market cap—drives M&A growth like the Essential merger, contrasting HTO's organic expansion via capital plans. Recent momentum favors HTO with less price erosion and superior quarterly growth rates, but AWK offers higher dividend yield and reaffirmed long-term EPS trajectory. Risks include regulatory hurdles and interest rate sensitivity for both; HTO's lower P/E and PEG (price/earnings-to-growth) suggest better value, while AWK leads in ROE (return on equity) potential from size. Sector exposure is identical, with sentiment tilting toward growth for smaller HTO versus stability for AWK.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward AWK for its superior trend consistency, dividend reliability, and merger catalyst positioning it ahead in relative stability amid utility sector pressures. While HTO shows valuation appeal and milder recent declines, AWK's reaffirmed guidance and scale provide higher probability of outperformance over the near term based on observable momentum and fundamentals.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AWK is a Hold and HTO is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AWK’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileHTO’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AWK’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- HTO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AWK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HTO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AWK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- HTO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
AWK (@Water Utilities) experienced а +0.50% price change this week, while HTO (@Water Utilities) price change was +0.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Water Utilities industry was -0.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
AWK is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
HTO is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Water Utilities (-0.42% weekly)Water utilities operate water treatment plants, and/or distribute water to residential and commercial customers. Companies operating in this industry are largely responsible for the safe and timely distribution of water. While most water systems are local or regional, some of the companies might have operations across several states. The industry is expected to be closely monitored by regulators for quality checks on the water being distributed. Investing in upgrading infrastructure is a major factor in bolstering the supply of clean/safe-to-use water. Given the absolute necessity of water in our lives, the industry is largely non-cyclical. American Water Works Company, Inc., Aqua America, Inc., American States Water Co. and California Water Service Group are some of the major water utilities companies in the U.S.
| AWK | HTO | AWK / HTO | |
| Capitalization | 24.4B | 2.37B | 1,029% |
| EBITDA | 2.96B | 315M | 940% |
| Gain YTD | -2.821 | 17.590 | -16% |
| P/E Ratio | 22.18 | 19.41 | 114% |
| Revenue | 5.21B | 816M | 638% |
| Total Cash | 137M | 153M | 90% |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 1.87B | 838% |
AWK | HTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 71 | 83 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HTO's Valuation (46) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (58). This means that HTO’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
HTO's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (100). This means that HTO’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
AWK's SMR Rating (71) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as HTO (83). This means that AWK’s stock grew similarly to HTO’s over the last 12 months.
HTO's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (59). This means that HTO’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
HTO's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (68). This means that HTO’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
| AWK | HTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 32% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 47% | 5 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 54% |
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AWK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AWK has been closely correlated with WTRG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AWK jumps, then WTRG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AWK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWK | 100% | -0.27% | ||
| WTRG - AWK | 89% Closely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| AWR - AWK | 71% Closely correlated | +0.29% | ||
| CWT - AWK | 68% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| MSEX - AWK | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| HTO - AWK | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.48% | ||
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HTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HTO has been closely correlated with AWR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HTO jumps, then AWR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTO | 100% | +0.48% | ||
| AWR - HTO | 78% Closely correlated | +0.29% | ||
| CWT - HTO | 74% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| YORW - HTO | 68% Closely correlated | -0.10% | ||
| MSEX - HTO | 67% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| WTRG - HTO | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.68% | ||
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