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AWK vs WTRG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) vs. Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AWK and WTRG are leading regulated utilities focused on water and wastewater services, with a proposed all-stock merger valuing the combined entity at around $40 billion.
- AWK, the larger acquirer, reported Q1 2026 revenue growth but missed EPS (earnings per share) estimates, while reaffirming full-year guidance and hiking its dividend by 8.2%.
- Shares of both stocks have trended lower in recent weeks, with AWK declining from highs near $139 to around $127 and WTRG from $41 to $38.
- WTRG trades at a lower P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 17.29 versus AWK's 22.59 and offers a higher dividend yield of 3.60% compared to 2.81%.
- The merger, announced in late 2025, has seen early regulatory approvals, such as in Kentucky, with closure targeted for Q1 2027.
- Tickeron's AI analysis currently favors AWK for its reaffirmed guidance, dividend growth, and positioning as the post-merger leader.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AWK and WTRG, two prominent players in the U.S. regulated water utilities sector amid their proposed merger. Investors seeking stable dividend income, defensive sector exposure, or merger-related opportunities may find value in analyzing their relative performance, valuations, and growth prospects. With both stocks facing recent market pressures, understanding their business models, recent developments, and head-to-head metrics provides clarity on market positioning in the current environment.
AWK Overview and Recent Performance
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) is the largest publicly traded water and wastewater utility in the United States, serving over 14 million people across 24 states. In recent market activity, AWK shares have pulled back from peaks near $139 in early April to current levels around $127, reflecting broader sector volatility and a Q1 2026 earnings report that beat revenue expectations at $1.21 billion but missed EPS estimates with $1.01 per share. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.02–$6.12 and increased its quarterly dividend by 8.2% to $0.895, signaling confidence in operational execution. Progress on the proposed merger with WTRG, including a key regulatory approval in Kentucky, has supported long-term sentiment, though near-term uncertainties have tempered gains.
WTRG Overview and Recent Performance
Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) operates regulated utilities providing water, wastewater, and natural gas services to approximately 5 million customers across nine states. Recent weeks have seen WTRG shares decline from highs above $41 to around $38, mirroring sector headwinds ahead of its Q1 2026 earnings release scheduled for May 7. The stock's higher dividend yield and exposure to natural gas distribution have provided relative stability, with year-to-date returns slightly positive at 0.06%. As the target in the pending merger with AWK—where shareholders would receive 0.305 AWK shares per WTRG share—market sentiment reflects anticipation of synergies, balanced against regulatory timelines and integration risks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AWK and WTRG share core water utility operations but differ in scale and diversification: AWK focuses purely on water and wastewater with a $24.9 billion market cap, while WTRG's $10.8 billion cap includes natural gas for broader revenue streams. Growth drivers center on the merger, which would expand AWK's footprint and access to capital for infrastructure. Recent momentum shows both down approximately 8% in the past month, but AWK's year-to-date gain of 1.73% edges WTRG's flat performance. Risk factors include regulatory hurdles for the deal and interest rate sensitivity in utilities. Valuation trade-offs favor WTRG's lower P/E and higher yield for value seekers, versus AWK's premium for stability and dividend growth trajectory. Market sentiment leans cautiously optimistic on merger catalysts amid recent earnings dynamics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors AWK with higher probability in the near term, driven by reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance, a robust dividend increase, and its role as the acquiring entity in the merger. While both exhibit stability as utilities, AWK's larger scale, consistent trend in reaffirmed outlooks, and emerging regulatory wins position it for relative outperformance, assuming merger progress.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AWK is a Hold and WTRG is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AWK’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileWTRG’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AWK’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WTRG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AWK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WTRG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AWK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- WTRG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AWK (@Water Utilities) experienced а +1.80% price change this week, while WTRG (@Water Utilities) price change was +1.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Water Utilities industry was -0.36%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.69%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.17%.
Reported Earning Dates
AWK is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
WTRG is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Water Utilities (-0.36% weekly)Water utilities operate water treatment plants, and/or distribute water to residential and commercial customers. Companies operating in this industry are largely responsible for the safe and timely distribution of water. While most water systems are local or regional, some of the companies might have operations across several states. The industry is expected to be closely monitored by regulators for quality checks on the water being distributed. Investing in upgrading infrastructure is a major factor in bolstering the supply of clean/safe-to-use water. Given the absolute necessity of water in our lives, the industry is largely non-cyclical. American Water Works Company, Inc., Aqua America, Inc., American States Water Co. and California Water Service Group are some of the major water utilities companies in the U.S.
| AWK | WTRG | AWK / WTRG | |
| Capitalization | 24.3B | 10.5B | 231% |
| EBITDA | 2.96B | 1.35B | 219% |
| Gain YTD | -3.303 | -1.386 | 238% |
| P/E Ratio | 22.07 | 18.95 | 116% |
| Revenue | 5.21B | 2.55B | 204% |
| Total Cash | 137M | 75.9M | 181% |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 8.44B | 186% |
AWK | WTRG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 71 | 78 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 41 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 55 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AWK's Valuation (58) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as WTRG (65) in the null industry. This means that AWK’s stock grew similarly to WTRG’s over the last 12 months.
AWK's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as WTRG (100) in the null industry. This means that AWK’s stock grew similarly to WTRG’s over the last 12 months.
AWK's SMR Rating (71) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as WTRG (78) in the null industry. This means that AWK’s stock grew similarly to WTRG’s over the last 12 months.
WTRG's Price Growth Rating (57) in the null industry is in the same range as AWK (58) in the Water Utilities industry. This means that WTRG’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
WTRG's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the null industry is in the same range as AWK (67) in the Water Utilities industry. This means that WTRG’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
| AWK | WTRG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 45% | 8 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 50% |
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AWK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AWK has been closely correlated with WTRG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AWK jumps, then WTRG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AWK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWK | 100% | -1.59% | ||
| WTRG - AWK | 89% Closely correlated | -1.14% | ||
| AWR - AWK | 71% Closely correlated | -2.09% | ||
| CWT - AWK | 68% Closely correlated | -1.56% | ||
| MSEX - AWK | 61% Loosely correlated | -2.35% | ||
| HTO - AWK | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.92% | ||
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WTRG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WTRG has been closely correlated with AWK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WTRG jumps, then AWK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WTRG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTRG | 100% | -1.14% | ||
| AWK - WTRG | 89% Closely correlated | -1.59% | ||
| AWR - WTRG | 72% Closely correlated | -2.09% | ||
| CWT - WTRG | 69% Closely correlated | -1.56% | ||
| HTO - WTRG | 63% Loosely correlated | -1.92% | ||
| MSEX - WTRG | 62% Loosely correlated | -2.35% | ||
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