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AWK vs AWR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Water Works (AWK) vs. American States Water (AWR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale matters: AWK is the largest publicly traded U.S. water utility with a market capitalization above $26 billion, while AWR is a smaller, California-centric operator valued near $3.4 billion.
- Both companies delivered robust 2025 results: AWK posted adjusted EPS (earnings per share) growth of 8.9% year-over-year, while AWR achieved a 10.9% adjusted EPS increase, each benefiting from new rate implementations and infrastructure investment recovery.
- Dividend reliability is a shared strength: AWK targets 7–9% long-term dividend growth, while AWR boasts 71 consecutive years of annual dividend increases — one of the longest streaks on the New York Stock Exchange.
- Transformational M&A (mergers and acquisitions) is an AWK catalyst: AWK's pending all-stock merger with Essential Utilities, expected to close by early 2027, would create a combined entity with a pro forma market cap of approximately $40 billion.
- AWR's contracted services segment adds diversification: Unlike AWK, AWR operates a military-base utility services business that supplements its regulated water and electric utility earnings.
- Valuation and risk profiles differ: AWK trades at a lower trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio near 24 versus AWR's approximately 25, though AWR's smaller size and California regulatory exposure introduce distinct risk factors.
Introduction
Water utilities occupy a unique corner of the equity market: they are essential-service monopolies with predictable revenue streams, yet they face growing capital demands from aging infrastructure. For investors seeking defensive exposure with steady dividend growth, AWK (American Water Works Company, Inc.) and AWR (American States Water Company) represent two compelling but meaningfully different expressions of the water utility theme. AWK is the industry giant, spanning 16 states and serving approximately 3.5 million customers. AWR is a more concentrated operator, serving communities primarily in California alongside a unique contracted services segment for U.S. military bases. This comparison examines how these two water-focused equities stack up across recent performance, strategic positioning, and AI-driven market assessment.
AWK Overview and Recent Performance
American Water Works is the largest investor-owned water and wastewater utility in the United States, with a market capitalization of roughly $26.3 billion as of late July 2026. The company operates regulated utilities across 16 states, providing essential services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. In recent months, AWK shares have traded within a 52-week range of approximately $120.57 to $147.87, reflecting the stock's sensitivity to interest-rate expectations and broader utility-sector sentiment.
AWK's full-year 2025 results underscored its steady operational execution. The company reported adjusted earnings of $5.64 per share, an 8.9% increase over 2024, driven by authorized rate increases, recovery of capital investments, and 18 acquisitions completed across seven states. Capital investment reached $3.2 billion in 2025, supporting water-quality and system-reliability projects. Looking ahead, AWK has established 2026 EPS guidance of $6.02 to $6.12 and outlined a $19–$20 billion five-year capital plan through 2030 — a testament to the scale of infrastructure spending ahead.
Perhaps the most consequential development for AWK has been its October 2025 announcement of an all-stock merger with Essential Utilities. Shareholders of both companies overwhelmingly approved the deal in February 2026, and the combined entity — expected to close by the first quarter of 2027 — would carry a pro forma market capitalization near $40 billion. This merger could meaningfully expand AWK's geographic footprint, rate base, and long-term earnings growth runway, though integration risk and regulatory approvals remain key watchpoints.
AWR Overview and Recent Performance
American States Water Company, headquartered in San Dimas, California, carries a market capitalization of approximately $3.4 billion. The company operates through three distinct segments: a regulated water utility (Golden State Water Company, or GSWC), a regulated electric utility (Bear Valley Electric Service, or BVES), and a contracted services business (American States Utility Services, or ASUS) that manages water and wastewater systems on U.S. military bases under long-term contracts. AWR's shares have traded in a 52-week range of roughly $69.45 to $90.11.
For the full year 2025, AWR reported adjusted consolidated diluted EPS of $3.37 — a 10.9% increase over 2024 on an adjusted basis. All three operating segments contributed to earnings growth, with the contracted services segment particularly benefiting from increased management fee revenues and construction activity. The company invested $210.9 million in company-funded capital expenditures during 2025 and has projected $185–$225 million for 2026. AWR's regulated utilities are authorized to deploy nearly $650 million in capital over their respective rate cycles.
AWR's dividend track record is exceptional by any standard. The company has paid dividends every year since 1931 and has increased its annual dividends for 71 consecutive years. The quarterly dividend rate has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% over the past five years, aligning with management's long-term target of exceeding 7% annual dividend growth. Recent regulatory developments, including CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) rate-case decisions setting rates through 2027 for water and 2023–2026 for electric, provide multi-year revenue visibility, though the transition away from a full revenue decoupling mechanism introduces some earnings volatility risk tied to customer consumption patterns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Scale and Geographic Diversification: AWK operates across 16 states and serves roughly 3.5 million customers, whereas AWR's regulated utilities are concentrated almost entirely in California. AWK's national footprint provides geographic diversification and reduces exposure to any single regulatory jurisdiction. AWR's California focus, while concentrated, benefits from a constructive regulatory framework that has historically supported timely rate recovery.
Business Model Composition: AWK is a pure-play regulated water and wastewater utility — nearly all its earnings derive from rate-regulated operations. AWR's model is more diversified: in addition to its regulated water and electric utilities, the contracted services segment (ASUS) provides military-base utility management under long-term, regulated-like contract structures. This segment contributed $0.61 per share to AWR's 2025 earnings and is projected to deliver $0.63–$0.67 in 2026.
Growth Drivers: AWK's growth strategy leans heavily on capital investment, rate-base expansion, and acquisitions — including the transformative Essential Utilities merger. The company's $19–$20 billion five-year capital plan dwarfs AWR's authorized $650 million rate-cycle spending. AWR, by contrast, grows through a combination of rate-case-driven infrastructure investment, new community development projects in California, and military contract awards.
Valuation and Yield: AWK currently trades at a trailing P/E of approximately 24 with a dividend yield near 2.7%. AWR trades at a trailing P/E of roughly 25 with a dividend yield around 2.3%. While AWR carries a slightly premium valuation multiple, its 71-year dividend-increase streak and 8.5% five-year dividend CAGR may justify that premium for income-oriented investors.
Risk Factors: AWK's primary risks include merger-integration complexity with Essential Utilities, the substantial debt load required to fund its capital program (long-term debt stood at $12.78 billion at year-end 2025), and interest-rate sensitivity. AWR's risks are more concentrated: California regulatory and wildfire-related exposure via its electric utility segment, the earnings volatility introduced by the shift away from full revenue decoupling, and equity dilution from its ATM (at-the-market) offering program, which sold over 2 million shares through 2025.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend characteristics, relative positioning, and catalyst profiles, Tickeron's AI analytical framework would likely tilt toward AWK in the current environment. The reasoning is grounded in several factors: AWK's larger scale and multi-state diversification provide more consistent trend signals and lower single-jurisdiction regulatory risk; the Essential Utilities merger, while carrying execution risk, offers a long-duration catalyst that could support sustained upward price momentum; and AWK's recently affirmed 2026 EPS guidance and 7–9% long-term growth targets signal earnings predictability that trend-following models tend to favor. AWR's strong dividend history and contracted-services diversification are notable strengths, but its California concentration and the earnings variability introduced by the recent regulatory mechanism change may create less favorable trend-consistency scores in AI-driven relative-strength models. As always, this assessment reflects a probabilistic, model-based view — not a prediction — and individual traders should weigh these insights against their own objectives and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AWK is a Hold and AWR is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AWK’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileAWR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AWK’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- AWR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AWK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while AWR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AWK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- AWR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AWK (@Water Utilities) experienced а -0.36% price change this week, while AWR (@Water Utilities) price change was -0.89% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Water Utilities industry was -1.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
AWK is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
AWR is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Water Utilities (-1.08% weekly)Water utilities operate water treatment plants, and/or distribute water to residential and commercial customers. Companies operating in this industry are largely responsible for the safe and timely distribution of water. While most water systems are local or regional, some of the companies might have operations across several states. The industry is expected to be closely monitored by regulators for quality checks on the water being distributed. Investing in upgrading infrastructure is a major factor in bolstering the supply of clean/safe-to-use water. Given the absolute necessity of water in our lives, the industry is largely non-cyclical. American Water Works Company, Inc., Aqua America, Inc., American States Water Co. and California Water Service Group are some of the major water utilities companies in the U.S.
| AWK | AWR | AWK / AWR | |
| Capitalization | 26.7B | 3.36B | 796% |
| EBITDA | 3.02B | 271M | 1,116% |
| Gain YTD | 4.249 | 19.776 | 21% |
| P/E Ratio | 23.25 | 24.97 | 93% |
| Revenue | 5.28B | 679M | 778% |
| Total Cash | 191M | 22.2M | 860% |
| Total Debt | 16.1B | 931M | 1,729% |
AWK | AWR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 89 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 74 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 72 | 63 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AWK's Valuation (76) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWR (82). This means that AWK’s stock grew similarly to AWR’s over the last 12 months.
AWR's Profit vs Risk Rating (74) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (100). This means that AWR’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
AWR's SMR Rating (63) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (72). This means that AWR’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
AWR's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (49). This means that AWR’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
AWR's P/E Growth Rating (38) in the Water Utilities industry is in the same range as AWK (60). This means that AWR’s stock grew similarly to AWK’s over the last 12 months.
| AWK | AWR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 38% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 47% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 45% | 4 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 47% | 12 days ago 49% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 45% | 4 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 40% | 4 days ago 43% |
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AWK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AWK has been closely correlated with WTRG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AWK jumps, then WTRG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AWK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWK | 100% | -1.93% | ||
| WTRG - AWK | 91% Closely correlated | -1.24% | ||
| AWR - AWK | 72% Closely correlated | -0.37% | ||
| CWT - AWK | 69% Closely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| HTO - AWK | 63% Loosely correlated | -1.03% | ||
| MSEX - AWK | 61% Loosely correlated | +2.67% | ||
More | ||||
AWR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AWR has been closely correlated with CWT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AWR jumps, then CWT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AWR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWR | 100% | -0.37% | ||
| CWT - AWR | 86% Closely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| HTO - AWR | 78% Closely correlated | -1.03% | ||
| YORW - AWR | 77% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| MSEX - AWR | 76% Closely correlated | +2.67% | ||
| WTRG - AWR | 73% Closely correlated | -1.24% | ||
More | ||||