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BBVA vs UBS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) vs. UBS Group (UBS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BBVA is a Spanish retail and commercial bank with heavy exposure to high-growth emerging markets such as Mexico and Turkey, while UBS is a Swiss global wealth manager and investment bank still absorbing its 2023 Credit Suisse acquisition.
- Both lenders are delivering record or near-record profitability, but their earnings engines differ sharply: BBVA leans on lending income in Spain and Mexico, while UBS rides wealth-management fee income and trading revenue.
- BBVA has recently faced selling pressure on higher loan-loss provisions in emerging markets, whereas UBS has benefited from strong client inflows and record investment-banking revenue amid market volatility.
- Capital return is a shared theme, with BBVA distributing record dividends and buybacks and UBS repurchasing shares while navigating a pending Swiss capital-rule debate.
- For more detail on each name, explore BBVA Major News and BBVA Today's Price Move, as well as UBS Major News and UBS Today's Price Move.
- For a data-driven take on current market conditions, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors weighing European financial stocks often find themselves choosing between different banking models, and BBVA and UBS illustrate that contrast clearly. One is a Madrid-headquartered lender riding emerging-market growth and digital banking; the other is a Zurich-based global wealth and investment franchise integrating a historic merger. This stock comparison is relevant for traders assessing relative performance, income-oriented investors evaluating dividends and buybacks, and anyone tracking how interest rates, regulation, and regional economies shape bank earnings. Because the two companies operate in different geographies and business lines, comparing them highlights trade-offs in growth, stability, and risk that a single-ticker view might miss.
BBVA Overview and Recent Performance
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, commonly known as BBVA, is one of Spain's largest banks, with a diversified footprint spanning Spain, Mexico, Turkey, and South America, alongside a growing digital and mobile banking franchise. Its earnings engine is heavily tied to net interest income (the difference between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits), particularly in Spain and Mexico. BBVA posted a record annual profit of about €10.5 billion for 2025, up roughly 4.5% year over year, with a return on tangible equity (ROTE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholders' tangible capital) of 19.3% and a fully loaded Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 12.7%.
In recent weeks, however, the stock has faced selling pressure. Analysts have flagged a double-digit pullback driven by higher-than-expected loan-loss provisions and rising costs in key emerging markets, with Mexico and Turkey cited as the main contributors. This tempered an otherwise strong operating story and reminded investors of the credit and currency risks embedded in BBVA's geographic mix. On the capital-return side, management has been generous, announcing a record cash dividend and a sizable share-buyback program after abandoning its proposed takeover of Banco Sabadell.
UBS Overview and Recent Performance
UBS Group AG is Switzerland's largest bank and one of the world's leading wealth managers, operating across Global Wealth Management (GWM), Asset Management, and a global Investment Bank. Its business model leans on recurring fee income from wealthy clients and advisory and trading activity, rather than a single lending market. UBS reported first-quarter 2026 net profit of about $3.0 billion, up roughly 80% year over year, supported by a record quarter in its markets business and a 17% rise in transaction-based income within wealth management. The firm's return on Common Equity Tier 1 capital (RoCET1) reached 16.8%, with a CET1 ratio of 14.7%.
Momentum has been reinforced by the Credit Suisse integration, which UBS expects to substantially complete by the end of 2026, with cumulative cost savings reaching about $11.5 billion. GWM attracted roughly $37 billion in net new assets in the first quarter alone. The main overhang is regulatory: Swiss authorities are debating higher capital requirements, a factor that has kept the bank's share-buyback trajectory tied to political clarity. Recent performance has been positive, but the Swiss capital debate and legacy compliance matters remain watch items.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast is business model. BBVA is a rate-sensitive commercial and retail lender whose fortunes track lending volumes and net interest margins in Spain and Mexico, making it more exposed to emerging-market credit cycles and currency swings. UBS is a fee-driven wealth and investment bank whose revenue depends on client activity, asset flows, and capital-markets volumes, giving it different cyclical drivers and a stronger capital cushion.
Growth dynamics also diverge. BBVA's expansion story is tied to digital banking and market-share gains in Mexico and Turkey, while UBS's near-term catalyst is completing the Credit Suisse integration and converting cost savings into higher profitability. On risk, BBVA faces provisioning and inflation pressures in emerging markets, whereas UBS confronts regulatory uncertainty around Swiss capital rules and legacy legal costs. Sentiment reflects this: BBVA has recently underperformed after strong multi-year gains, while UBS has been supported by earnings beats and record trading revenue, tempered by regulatory overhang.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward UBS in the current environment. The reasoning rests on trend consistency and stability: UBS has posted consecutive earnings beats, strong client inflows, a robust CET1 capital position, and record investment-banking revenue, with the Credit Suisse integration progressing ahead of expectations. BBVA, by contrast, is contending with rising emerging-market provisions and a recent trend reversal, which introduces greater near-term uncertainty despite strong underlying profitability. This is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive prediction, and relative positioning could shift quickly if emerging-market credit improves or Swiss capital rules tighten materially.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BBVA is a Hold and UBS is a Hold.
BBVA in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BBVA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
BBVA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBVA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for BBVA entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BBVA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 13 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 56 cases where BBVA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +2.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBVA advanced for three days, in 252 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
BBVA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BBVA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BBVA's P/B Ratio (2.363) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.515). P/E Ratio (13.354) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.735). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.229) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). BBVA has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.060) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (3.249) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
UBS in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026
UBS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 35 cases where UBS's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UBS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UBS just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where UBS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +0.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UBS advanced for three days, in 228 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UBS as a result. In 55 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UBS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for UBS entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 23 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.607) is normal, around the industry mean (1.515). P/E Ratio (15.291) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.735). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.669) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). UBS's Dividend Yield (0.094) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (3.209) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UBS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
BBVA | UBS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 5 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 72 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UBS's Valuation (23) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BBVA (77). This means that UBS’s stock grew somewhat faster than BBVA’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as UBS (12). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to UBS’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as UBS (5). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to UBS’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as UBS (55). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to UBS’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UBS (72). This means that BBVA’s stock grew somewhat faster than UBS’s over the last 12 months.
| BBVA | UBS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 50% | 6 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 51% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BBVA’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while UBS’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BBVA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- UBS’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BBVA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UBS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BBVA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UBS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
BBVA (@Major Banks) experienced а -0.98% price change this week, while UBS (@Major Banks) price change was -0.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -0.82%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
BBVA is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
UBS is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-0.82% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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BBVA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BBVA has been closely correlated with SAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BBVA jumps, then SAN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BBVA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBVA | 100% | -0.39% | ||
| SAN - BBVA | 82% Closely correlated | +0.81% | ||
| ING - BBVA | 77% Closely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| BCS - BBVA | 76% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| HSBC - BBVA | 73% Closely correlated | -5.70% | ||
| UBS - BBVA | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.71% | ||
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UBS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UBS has been closely correlated with BCS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UBS jumps, then BCS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UBS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | 100% | +0.71% | ||
| BCS - UBS | 70% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| ING - UBS | 67% Closely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| SAN - UBS | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.81% | ||
| HSBC - UBS | 60% Loosely correlated | -5.70% | ||
| BBVA - UBS | 59% Loosely correlated | -0.39% | ||
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