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BBVA vs NWG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) vs. NatWest Group (NWG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NWG outperforms BBVA in year-to-date returns with 7.09% versus 2.63%.
- BBVA demonstrates superior return on equity (ROE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholders' equity) at 18.27% compared to NWG's 14.23%.
- Both stocks offer compelling dividend yields: BBVA at 4.90% and NWG at 5.59%.
- BBVA has a larger market capitalization of approximately $123 billion versus NWG's $62 billion.
- Recent profit growth highlights strength: BBVA achieved a record €10.51 billion full-year net profit, up 4.5%, while NWG reported a 24% annual profit increase.
- Analyst price targets indicate potential upside for both, with BBVA at $22.52 and NWG at $19.24 from recent levels.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits BBVA, a Spanish multinational bank with significant exposure to emerging markets, against NWG, a UK-focused banking group emphasizing retail and commercial services. Both operate in the competitive European banking sector, where interest rate dynamics, loan growth, and regulatory environments shape performance. Investors and traders interested in diversified international banking versus stable domestic plays, or those evaluating relative performance amid shifting market sentiment, will find this analysis valuable for understanding key contrasts in business models, recent momentum, and positioning.
BBVA Overview and Recent Performance
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA), headquartered in Bilbao, Spain, is a leading multinational bank with operations across Europe, Mexico, Turkey, and South America. In recent market activity, BBVA shares have experienced modest year-to-date gains of 2.63%, trading around $22 with a 52-week range of $13.47 to $26.20. Key influences include a record full-year 2025 net profit of €10.51 billion, up 4.5% year-over-year, driven by 16.2% loan growth and resilient net interest income (NII, revenue from interest-bearing assets). The bank divested its Romania business for $680 million in March, streamlining operations, while partnerships in renewables and blockchain bolstered sentiment. Despite a recent UBS downgrade to Neutral, strong ROE of 18.27% and an upcoming Q1 earnings release support positive positioning.
NWG Overview and Recent Performance
NatWest Group plc (NWG), based in the UK, serves over 20 million customers through retail, commercial, and private banking segments. Recent weeks have seen mixed stock behavior, with year-to-date returns of 7.09% outpacing peers, and shares near $15.67 within a 52-week range of $12.61 to $19.36. A 24% jump in annual profit earlier this year, coupled with raised performance targets and a retail banking deal with Sainsbury's, drove gains, highlighting focus on wealth management growth. However, analyst downgrades from Barclays and Keefe Bruyette tempered enthusiasm. With a lower P/E ratio (price-to-earnings, stock price divided by earnings per share) of 8.61, ROE of 14.23%, and elevated dividend yield, NWG reflects UK banking recovery amid stable economic signals.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BBVA and NWG both anchor the banking sector but diverge in scope: BBVA's multinational model leverages emerging market growth drivers like Mexico and Turkey for loan expansion, contrasting NWG's UK-centric focus on retail stability and wealth services. Recent momentum favors NWG with stronger YTD gains, while BBVA shows higher volatility (beta 0.92 vs. 0.83). Risk factors include BBVA's exposure to geopolitical tensions in emerging regions versus NWG's sensitivity to UK regulations and economic slowdowns. Market sentiment reflects analyst caution on both post-downgrades, but BBVA's superior ROE signals efficiency trade-offs against NWG's cheaper valuation and yield.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward BBVA based on trend consistency in loan growth, higher ROE indicating profitability edge, and catalysts like recent divestitures and upcoming earnings that position it favorably relative to NWG. While NWG offers stability and yield appeal, BBVA's international diversification provides probabilistic upside in a global recovery scenario.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BBVA is a StrongBuy and NWG is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BBVA’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileNWG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BBVA’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- NWG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BBVA’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NWG’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BBVA’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NWG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
BBVA (@Major Banks) experienced а -5.00% price change this week, while NWG (@Regional Banks) price change was -1.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +1.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.38%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
BBVA is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
NWG is expected to report earnings on Jul 31, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (+1.61% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
@Regional Banks (+1.71% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| BBVA | NWG | BBVA / NWG | |
| Capitalization | 125B | 63.5B | 197% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -1.699 | -5.896 | 29% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.52 | 8.42 | 125% |
| Revenue | 40.7B | 17B | 239% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 87.6B | 6.64B | 1,319% |
BBVA | NWG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 16 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 4 | 7 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NWG's Valuation (16) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BBVA (24). This means that NWG’s stock grew similarly to BBVA’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (13). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's SMR Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (7). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (50). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NWG (60). This means that BBVA’s stock grew somewhat faster than NWG’s over the last 12 months.
| BBVA | NWG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 72% | 19 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 52% | 12 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 45% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 65% |
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