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BBVA vs NWG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) vs. NatWest Group (NWG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BBVA delivers a structurally higher return profile, with a return on tangible equity (RoTE) above 19%, but carries greater exposure to emerging-market credit risk in Mexico, Turkey, and South America.
- NWG has sharpened its growth story through the Evelyn Partners wealth-management acquisition, lifting fee income and diversifying away from pure interest-rate sensitivity.
- Both lenders are returning record capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, though BBVA's recent provision increases tempered investor enthusiasm.
- Analyst sentiment is constructive on both names, with NWG carrying a "Strong Buy" consensus and BBVA a "Moderate Buy" consensus across major sell-side coverage.
- BBVA's relative performance has cooled in recent weeks after a roughly 45% twelve-month gain, while NWG has sustained steadier momentum through upgrades and guidance increases.
- For deeper coverage, explore BBVA Major News and BBVA Today's Price Move, along with NWG Major News and NWG Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across these and other tickers, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
European banks have been among the strongest performers in global equity markets over recent years, yet the drivers behind BBVA and NWG are sharply different. One is a diversified Iberian lender with deep Latin American roots; the other is a UK-focused franchise repositioning toward wealth management. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing geographic diversification against domestic stability, and for traders seeking to understand how relative performance and market positioning differ between two leading European financials. Both tickers reward attention from those evaluating yield, capital returns, and risk-adjusted momentum.
BBVA Overview and Recent Performance
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) is a Spain-headquartered global bank with major operations in Mexico, Turkey, and South America alongside its home market. Its business model combines strong retail and commercial lending with a leading digital-banking franchise across Latin America. Recent market activity has reflected record profitability colliding with emerging-market risk. The bank posted full-year profit near €10.5 billion and a RoTE (return on tangible equity, a key measure of profitability on shareholder capital) of about 19.3%, while guiding toward roughly 20% for 2026. However, loan-loss provisions rose sharply in recent quarters, concentrated in Mexico and Turkey, and that—combined with currency volatility—triggered a pullback in the shares. BBVA has nonetheless maintained aggressive shareholder distributions, including a record dividend and multibillion-euro buyback program, underscoring management's confidence in capital generation.
NWG Overview and Recent Performance
NatWest Group (NWG) is one of the UK's largest retail and commercial banks, with a heritage in UK domestic banking and a growing private-banking and wealth franchise. Its recent story has been defined by the £2.7 billion acquisition of wealth manager Evelyn Partners, completed in mid-2026, which more than doubled assets under management and is expected to lift group fee income by roughly 20%. In recent quarters, the bank raised its full-year income and RoTE guidance, reporting a first-half RoTE near 19.7% and targeting above 18% by 2028. Its CET1 ratio (Common Equity Tier 1, a measure of a bank's core capital strength) remained healthy even after the acquisition. NatWest has paired these results with a dividend increase and a newly announced buyback, and sell-side firms including Barclays have upgraded the stock in recent weeks on the back of higher rates and the Evelyn integration.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between BBVA and NWG is geographic and structural. BBVA offers higher headline profitability and a growth runway in emerging markets, but that same exposure introduces volatility in asset quality, inflation, and currency. NWG, by contrast, is a more domestically concentrated franchise whose earnings historically hinge on UK interest rates; its Evelyn deal is a deliberate effort to add recurring, capital-light fee income and reduce that sensitivity. On momentum, BBVA's longer-term relative performance has been stronger, but recent weeks have seen the stock give back ground as provision concerns surfaced. NWG's momentum has been steadier, supported by guidance upgrades and positive rating changes. From a valuation standpoint, both trade at what analysts describe as reasonable multiples for European banks, with BBVA carrying a modest dividend yield and NWG offering a higher perceived consensus upside relative to its ADR price. Risk factors differ too: BBVA investors weigh emerging-market credit and regulatory environments, while NWG investors monitor UK bank taxes, deposit-cost pressure, and the pace of wealth-integration benefits.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability of catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI framework would likely tilt toward NWG in the current environment. NatWest's narrative is supported by a clearer, near-term catalyst path—rising guidance, a completed wealth acquisition now contributing fee income, and sustained analyst upgrades—combined with steadier recent price momentum. BBVA's structural profitability remains impressive, but higher provision volatility and emerging-market sensitivity introduce a wider band of outcomes that automated trend models typically discount. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the balance of signals available at this time rather than a fixed recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BBVA is a StrongBuy and NWG is a Buy.
BBVA's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for BBVA moved out of oversold territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 13 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 12 of the 13 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 56 cases where BBVA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BBVA just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where BBVA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +6.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBVA advanced for three days, in 251 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
BBVA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
BBVA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BBVA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBVA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for BBVA entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 20, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BBVA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BBVA's P/B Ratio (2.384) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.500). P/E Ratio (13.476) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.708). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.229) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). BBVA has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.057) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (3.249) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
NWG's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for NWG moved out of oversold territory on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NWG advanced for three days, in 237 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
NWG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NWG as a result. In 44 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NWG turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NWG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator for NWG entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.498) is normal, around the industry mean (1.286). P/E Ratio (11.004) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.490). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.468) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.077) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.182) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NWG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
BBVA | NWG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 34 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 5 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NWG's Valuation (34) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BBVA (71). This means that NWG’s stock grew somewhat faster than BBVA’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (10). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (5). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (61). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (29). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
| BBVA | NWG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 16 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 50% | 7 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 40% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BBVA’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while NWG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BBVA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NWG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BBVA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NWG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BBVA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NWG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BBVA (@Major Banks) experienced а +1.84% price change this week, while NWG (@Regional Banks) price change was -3.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -1.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.32%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.95%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
BBVA is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
NWG is expected to report earnings on Feb 12, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-1.07% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
@Regional Banks (-0.95% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BBVA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BBVA has been closely correlated with SAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BBVA jumps, then SAN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BBVA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBVA | 100% | +6.12% | ||
| SAN - BBVA | 81% Closely correlated | +6.44% | ||
| ING - BBVA | 77% Closely correlated | +6.28% | ||
| BCS - BBVA | 76% Closely correlated | +5.80% | ||
| HSBC - BBVA | 72% Closely correlated | +5.78% | ||
| UBS - BBVA | 60% Loosely correlated | +5.56% | ||
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NWG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NWG has been closely correlated with LYG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NWG jumps, then LYG could also see price increases.