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NWG vs UBS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NatWest Group (NWG) vs. UBS Group (UBS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NWG (NatWest Group) has leveraged a strong UK franchise and the Evelyn Partners wealth acquisition to raise 2026 guidance and pull forward share buybacks.
- UBS (UBS Group) is extracting value from its Credit Suisse integration, posting a 17% rise in quarterly net profit and a new $3 billion buyback program.
- NatWest offers a higher dividend yield and lower valuation, while UBS brings greater scale, global diversification, and wealth-management exposure.
- Both names carry regulatory overhang: UK bank-tax risk for NatWest and Swiss capital-rule uncertainty for UBS.
- Analyst consensus is broadly constructive on both, though NatWest screens as cheaper on a price-to-earnings basis.
- For more detail on each name, explore NWG Major News and NWG Today's Price Move, or UBS Major News and UBS Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two major European banks with different footprints and business mixes: NatWest Group (NWG), a UK-focused retail and commercial lender, and UBS Group (UBS), a Swiss global wealth manager and investment bank. Both have been in the spotlight recently, but for distinct reasons. NatWest's story centers on a domestic franchise and a wealth-management acquisition, while UBS's narrative revolves around the multi-year integration of Credit Suisse. Investors weighing geographic concentration against global diversification, or interest-rate-driven earnings against fee-based revenue, may find this relative performance comparison particularly relevant.
NWG Overview and Recent Performance
NatWest Group is a UK banking group providing retail, private, and commercial banking services. In recent months, its shares have benefited from a resilient UK earnings backdrop and a strategic shift toward fee-based income. The company completed its roughly £2.7 billion acquisition of wealth manager Evelyn Partners in late June 2026, more than doubling its assets under management and administration (client assets held on behalf of investors) and adding a new stream of recurring fee revenue alongside its traditional net interest income (NII), the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits.
In its first-half results, NatWest reported a return on tangible equity (RoTE, a measure of profitability against shareholder capital) of 19.7%, raised its full-year income and returns guidance, and brought forward the timing of its next share buyback. The shares carry a dividend yield above 5% and a price-to-earnings multiple in the single digits. Recent analyst activity has been broadly positive, with several banks maintaining or raising ratings. Key risks include sensitivity to UK interest rates, mortgage competition, and the possibility of higher UK bank taxation.
UBS Overview and Recent Performance
UBS Group is a global financial firm spanning wealth management, investment banking, asset management, and retail and corporate banking, with strong franchises in Switzerland, Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. Its recent stock behavior reflects steady progress on the integration of Credit Suisse, which UBS acquired in 2023. In its most recent quarter, UBS reported a 17% year-over-year rise in net profit to $2.8 billion, driven by record investment-banking activity and growth in global wealth management, alongside $36 billion in net new client assets.
UBS has now generated roughly $12.6 billion in cumulative integration cost savings and reduced its workforce below 100,000, while announcing a new $3 billion share buyback. The bank targets substantially completing the Credit Suisse integration by the end of 2026. Its cost-to-income ratio has improved markedly. The primary overhang is regulatory: Swiss proposals could require UBS to hold around $20 billion in additional Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital, a core measure of bank capital strength, which management argues could constrain competitiveness and shareholder returns.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of automated trading strategies chosen for their suitability to current market conditions. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, statistics, and portfolio of securities. Rather than listing every bot, the platform highlights only those it considers the best fit for the prevailing environment, helping traders filter the broad universe of options down to a focused shortlist. If you are evaluating names like NWG and UBS, reviewing the Trending AI Robots section can offer a data-driven perspective on how automated systems are positioning in real time.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two banks diverge most clearly on business model and market positioning. NatWest is a domestically concentrated lender whose earnings remain closely tied to UK interest rates, though the Evelyn Partners deal is gradually shifting the mix toward capital-light fee income. UBS, by contrast, is a globally diversified wealth manager and investment bank, with a larger share of recurring fees and a more cyclical trading business.
On valuation and income, NatWest screens more attractively for yield-focused investors, with a higher dividend yield and a lower earnings multiple. UBS offers a different trade-off: greater scale, stronger exposure to global wealth flows and markets activity, but a heavier regulatory and integration workload. Growth drivers also differ. NatWest's catalysts include wealth-platform integration and capital returns, while UBS's catalysts center on cost-savings realization, investment-banking momentum, and asset gathering. Risk profiles reflect the same split: NatWest faces UK economic and tax-policy risk, while UBS faces Swiss capital-rule uncertainty and execution risk on a complex merger.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean slightly toward NWG on trend consistency and valuation, given its more predictable domestic earnings base, strong capital generation, and clearer near-term catalysts such as accelerated buybacks. However, UBS presents a more compelling growth and diversification profile, with record markets activity and integration savings that could support momentum if regulatory concerns ease. The choice ultimately hinges on whether the system prioritizes stability and income or scale and global growth, and the verdict would likely remain probabilistic rather than definitive under shifting market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NWG is a Hold and UBS is a Hold.
NWG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NWG turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where NWG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 58 cases where NWG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +1.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NWG advanced for three days, in 237 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
NWG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NWG as a result. In 38 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
NWG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NWG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NWG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator for NWG entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.559) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.456) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.299). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.468) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.074) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.182) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NWG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for UBS turns negative, indicating new downward trend
UBS saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 56 of the 80 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UBS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for UBS entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UBS's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UBS just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where UBS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +0.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UBS advanced for three days, in 228 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
UBS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 24 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.603) is normal, around the industry mean (1.517). P/E Ratio (15.258) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.751). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.669) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). UBS's Dividend Yield (0.094) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.034). P/S Ratio (3.209) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UBS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NWG | UBS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 46 Fair valued | 24 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 5 | 5 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 72 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UBS's Valuation (24) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (46). This means that UBS’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
NWG's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as UBS (12). This means that NWG’s stock grew similarly to UBS’s over the last 12 months.
NWG's SMR Rating (5) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as UBS (5). This means that NWG’s stock grew similarly to UBS’s over the last 12 months.
NWG's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as UBS (56). This means that NWG’s stock grew similarly to UBS’s over the last 12 months.
NWG's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UBS (72). This means that NWG’s stock grew somewhat faster than UBS’s over the last 12 months.
| NWG | UBS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 55% | 7 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NWG’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while UBS’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- NWG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- UBS’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NWG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UBS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NWG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UBS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
NWG (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.92% price change this week, while UBS (@Major Banks) price change was -2.59% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.73%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +1.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
NWG is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
UBS is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.08% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
@Major Banks (+1.21% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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NWG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NWG has been closely correlated with LYG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NWG jumps, then LYG could also see price increases.
UBS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UBS has been closely correlated with BCS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UBS jumps, then BCS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UBS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | 100% | -0.21% | ||
| BCS - UBS | 70% Closely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| ING - UBS | 67% Closely correlated | +0.98% | ||
| SAN - UBS | 62% Loosely correlated | -6.26% | ||
| BBVA - UBS | 59% Loosely correlated | -0.91% | ||
| HSBC - UBS | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.42% | ||
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