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BFC vs SRCE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bank First Corporation (BFC) vs. 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Bank First Corporation (BFC) is scaling up through M&A (mergers and acquisitions), having completed its purchase of Centre 1 Bancorp in early 2026.
- 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) is a larger, more diversified Midwest bank with a long dividend-growth track record and recently transitioned leadership.
- Both stocks have posted strong year-to-date gains, though SRCE has shown more pronounced price momentum over the trailing year.
- Analyst sentiment differs: BFC carries a consensus "Buy," while SRCE carries a "Hold" consensus despite a higher top price target.
- The comparison centers on growth-through-acquisition versus steady organic profitability, with distinct risk profiles for each.
Introduction
Investors evaluating regional banks often weigh two competing strategies: aggressive expansion through acquisitions versus disciplined, organic growth within an established footprint. That is precisely the contrast between BFC (Bank First Corporation) and SRCE (1st Source Corporation). Both are well-capitalized community and regional lenders operating in the Midwest, yet their market positioning, growth drivers, and recent relative performance have diverged in meaningful ways. This stock comparison examines recent developments, sentiment shifts, and structural differences to help traders and long-term investors understand how these two financial institutions currently stack up against one another.
BFC Overview and Recent Performance
Bank First Corporation, headquartered in Manitowoc, Wisconsin, operates as the holding company for Bank First, N.A. and provides commercial and consumer banking services throughout the state. The company's defining recent event was the completion of its acquisition of Centre 1 Bancorp at the start of 2026, a transaction that added roughly $1.48 billion in assets and increased total assets by approximately 33%. The deal has expanded the bank's scale, added trust and wealth management capabilities, and introduced a new "Stateline Region."
This inorganic growth has been reflected in financial results. Net interest income, or NII (the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits), rose meaningfully in recent quarters, and the bank reported adjusted earnings of $2.24 per share in the first quarter of 2026. Management has also raised its dividend and authorized additional share repurchases, signaling confidence in capital generation. Shares have traded near the upper end of their 52-week range in recent weeks, supported by earnings beats and a consensus "Buy" rating, though the integration of a large acquisition remains a key execution variable.
SRCE Overview and Recent Performance
1st Source Corporation, based in South Bend, Indiana, is the holding company for 1st Source Bank and offers commercial and consumer banking, trust and wealth advisory, and insurance services. The company has emphasized balance-sheet strength and steady profitability rather than large-scale M&A. In late 2025, Andrea Short succeeded longtime leadership as CEO in what management described as a smooth transition.
Recent results have been robust: the company reported record full-year 2025 net income of roughly $158 million, up nearly 20%, with earnings per share (EPS) rising to $6.41. Loan balances surpassed $7 billion in early 2026, driven in part by commercial and renewable-energy lending. The bank has also consistently returned capital to shareholders, maintaining a dividend yield near 2% and executing substantial buybacks. SRCE shares have delivered strong year-to-date returns and sit near multi-year highs, supported by an earnings beat that topped consensus estimates by a double-digit margin.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
From a business-model standpoint, the two banks follow different playbooks. BFC is pursuing scale and geographic expansion through acquisition, which accelerates revenue and asset growth but introduces integration and purchase-accounting complexity. SRCE relies on organic loan and deposit growth within a diversified, fee-generating franchise that includes wealth management and insurance.
On valuation, SRCE trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple than BFC, reflecting in part a more mature earnings base and a "Hold" consensus. In contrast, BFC carries a richer multiple tied to anticipated EPS accretion from its recent deal. Growth drivers also differ: BFC's near-term story is integration-driven, while SRCE's hinges on continued commercial lending and capital returns. Risk factors include credit normalization and execution risk for BFC, versus a richer recent share-price run and higher loan-loss reserves for SRCE.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward SRCE in the current environment. The stock has demonstrated steadier, broader-based momentum, a clearer earnings trajectory, and a more diversified revenue mix that may offer resilience through varying rate and credit conditions. While BFC presents a compelling acquisition-driven growth catalyst, its near-term path depends more heavily on integration execution. These are probabilistic signals rather than certainties, and the AI's preference reflects the balance of momentum, stability, and catalysts available at the time of analysis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BFC is a Buy and SRCE is a Hold.
BFC in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026
BFC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 39 cases where BFC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 56 cases where BFC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +1.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BFC advanced for three days, in 176 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BFC as a result. In 48 of 105 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BFC turned negative on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
BFC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BFC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 23 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BFC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Aroon Indicator for BFC entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BFC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.922) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (18.471) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. BFC's P/S Ratio (7.358) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.738).
SRCE's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SRCE turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where SRCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 63 cases where SRCE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SRCE as a result. In 47 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Following a +1.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SRCE advanced for three days, in 173 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
SRCE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
SRCE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SRCE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SRCE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for SRCE entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SRCE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.577) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (12.311) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.380) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.617) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
BFC | SRCE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SRCE's Valuation (80) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (94). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (12). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's SMR Rating (19) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (30). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (47). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (38). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
| BFC | SRCE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 55% | 7 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 44% | 16 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BFC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while SRCE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SRCE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BFC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SRCE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BFC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SRCE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BFC (@Regional Banks) experienced а -2.80% price change this week, while SRCE (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.94%.
Reported Earning Dates
BFC is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.86% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BFC has been closely correlated with IBCP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BFC jumps, then IBCP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BFC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC | 100% | -4.25% | ||
| IBCP - BFC | 77% Closely correlated | -0.94% | ||
| SRCE - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | -0.66% | ||
| BY - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
| PGC - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| CTBI - BFC | 74% Closely correlated | -9.26% | ||
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SRCE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SRCE has been closely correlated with PEBO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SRCE jumps, then PEBO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SRCE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE | 100% | -0.66% | ||
| PEBO - SRCE | 89% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
| THFF - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| MBWM - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.56% | ||
| NBTB - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.25% | ||
| BY - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| IBFR | 50.16 | 0.18 | +0.37% |
| Innovator International Developed Managed 10 Buffer ETF (IBFR) | |||
| FTMA | 8.63 | 0.03 | +0.35% |
| Franklin Massachusetts Municipal Income ETF (FTMA) | |||
| GJP | 24.48 | N/A | N/A |
| Synthetic Fixed Income Securities on the behalf of STRATS for Dominion Resources Series 2005-6 | |||
| FINT | 35.95 | N/A | N/A |
| Frontier Asset Total International Equity ETF | |||
| FPF | 15.69 | -0.01 | -0.06% |
| FIRST TRUST INTERMEDIATE DURATION PREFERRED & Income FUND | |||