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BFC vs BY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bank First Corporation (BFC) vs. Byline Bancorp (BY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two regional banks, two growth paths: BFC (Bank First Corporation) is a Wisconsin-based community bank expanding through acquisition, while BY (Byline Bancorp) is a Chicago-focused commercial bank scaling organically and through specialty lending.
- Profitability contrast: Byline Bancorp recently posted record quarterly net income and a return on common equity near 14.5%, versus a lower but improving return profile at Bank First.
- Margin differential: BY's net interest margin (NIM, a key measure of lending profitability) of roughly 4.28% compares with about 3.96% at BFC.
- Balance-sheet scale: BY holds approximately $9.9 billion in assets, materially larger than BFC, which grew to roughly $6 billion after closing its Centre 1 Bancorp acquisition.
- Capital-return signals: Both companies recently raised dividends and executed share buybacks, but BY's dividend increases have been larger in percentage terms.
- Analyst posture: Both carry consensus "Buy" ratings, with average price targets implying double-digit upside for each.
Introduction
Investors comparing regional bank stocks often weigh profitability, growth strategy, and balance-sheet positioning. BFC and BY offer a useful side-by-side case study: two Midwest lenders with different footprints, business mixes, and capital-deployment styles. Bank First Corporation leans on an acquisition-driven expansion strategy across Wisconsin, while Byline Bancorp is building a preeminent Chicago commercial banking franchise anchored by a dominant Small Business Administration (SBA) lending platform. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors and traders evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and growth catalysts within the U.S. regional banking sector.
BFC Overview and Recent Performance
Bank First Corporation, headquartered in Manitowoc, Wisconsin, operates as the holding company for Bank First, N.A., providing commercial and consumer banking services primarily within Wisconsin. A defining development in recent months was the completion of its acquisition of Centre 1 Bancorp, the parent of First National Bank and Trust, which added roughly $1.48 billion in assets and expanded Bank First into a new "Stateline" region. The deal lifted total assets by about one-third and introduced Trust and Wealth Management, fraud, and treasury management capabilities.
Recent market activity reflects improving fundamentals. Bank First's net interest income has climbed alongside the acquisition, and management raised the quarterly dividend, signaling confidence in the enlarged franchise. Return on equity (ROE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholder capital) remains modest by peer standards, however, and the stock trades at a relatively elevated earnings multiple. Analysts generally maintain a "Buy" consensus, with price targets suggesting further upside, though some note the shares already reflect much of the integration benefit.
BY Overview and Recent Performance
Byline Bancorp, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, conducts its business through Byline Bank, a full-service commercial bank serving small and mid-sized businesses, commercial real estate sponsors, and consumers. Byline has maintained its position as the number one SBA 7(a) lender in Illinois for sixteen consecutive years and also operates a small-ticket equipment leasing business. The company fully integrated its 2025 acquisition of First Security Bancorp and continues to scale toward the $10 billion asset threshold.
Recent performance has been notably strong. Byline reported record quarterly net income of roughly $40 million, with adjusted earnings per share rising double digits year over year, a return on common equity near 14.5%, and an efficiency ratio below 47%—its best since going public. The company raised its dividend by 16.7% and continued share repurchases. Deposits and loans both grew, though elevated loan payoffs and a slightly compressed margin remain watchpoints. Analysts hold a "Buy" consensus with targets implying meaningful upside.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies lies in scale and strategy. BY is the larger institution by assets and generates stronger profitability metrics, including a higher NIM, ROE, and return on assets. Its SBA lending franchise and Chicago concentration provide a differentiated revenue stream but also expose it to Midwest credit and competitive dynamics. BFC, by contrast, is smaller and more dependent on acquisition-driven growth, which brings integration risk but also immediate scale gains.
On momentum, both stocks have delivered strong trailing returns amid a favorable regional banking backdrop. BY has shown particularly robust one-year total return, while BFC's gains have been more measured. Risk factors differ: BFC faces execution risk from the recent merger and a premium valuation, whereas BY faces potential regulatory and compliance cost increases as it approaches $10 billion in assets, plus heightened deposit competition in a "higher-for-longer" rate environment. Sector exposure is similar—both are rate-sensitive regional banks—but their growth drivers and geographic footprints are distinct.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, profitability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward BY in the current environment. Byline Bancorp's record earnings, superior return metrics, dominant SBA franchise, and rising capital returns present a more consistent and higher-quality earnings profile than Bank First's still-maturing acquisition integration. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: BFC's merger-driven scale gains and disciplined expense management could support re-rating if execution stays on track. Investors focused on pure growth via deal-making may favor BFC, while those prioritizing profitability and organic momentum may find BY's positioning comparatively stronger.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BFC is a Buy and BY is a Hold.
BFC in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026
BFC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 39 cases where BFC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 56 cases where BFC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +1.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BFC advanced for three days, in 176 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BFC as a result. In 48 of 105 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BFC turned negative on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
BFC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BFC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 23 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BFC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Aroon Indicator for BFC entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BFC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.922) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (18.471) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. BFC's P/S Ratio (7.358) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.738).
BY in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026
BY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 39 cases where BY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 64 cases where BY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BY as a result. In 56 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BY just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where BY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +1.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BY advanced for three days, in 157 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for BY entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.295) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (11.228) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.712) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
BFC | BY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BY's Valuation (60) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BFC (94). This means that BY’s stock grew somewhat faster than BFC’s over the last 12 months.
BFC's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BY (34). This means that BFC’s stock grew similarly to BY’s over the last 12 months.
BY's SMR Rating (19) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (30). This means that BY’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
BY's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (47). This means that BY’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
BY's P/E Growth Rating (26) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (38). This means that BY’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
| BFC | BY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 55% | 7 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 44% | 9 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 51% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BFC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while BY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- BY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BFC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BY’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BFC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- BY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
BFC (@Regional Banks) experienced а -2.80% price change this week, while BY (@Regional Banks) price change was +2.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.94%.
Reported Earning Dates
BFC is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
BY is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.86% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BFC has been closely correlated with IBCP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BFC jumps, then IBCP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BFC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC | 100% | -4.25% | ||
| IBCP - BFC | 77% Closely correlated | -0.94% | ||
| SRCE - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | -0.66% | ||
| BY - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
| PGC - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| CTBI - BFC | 74% Closely correlated | -9.26% | ||
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BY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BY has been closely correlated with HBNC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BY jumps, then HBNC could also see price increases.