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BFC vs CTBI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bank First Corporation (BFC) vs. Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Bank First Corporation (BFC) is a Wisconsin consolidator expanding aggressively through acquisitions, while Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI) is a more measured Kentucky-based community bank growing organically.
- Both are regionally focused financial institutions, but BFC skews toward acquisition-driven growth and CTBI toward steady profitability and income.
- CTBI offers a notably higher dividend yield and a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio than BFC.
- BFC reported a stronger net interest margin (NIM) recently, reflecting scale benefits from its mergers.
- Analyst consensus is "Buy" for both names, with modestly higher implied upside attached to BFC.
- Relative performance favors CTBI over the trailing year, though recent weeks have seen both stocks consolidate near the upper end of their ranges.
Introduction
Bank First Corporation and Community Trust Bancorp are two well-regarded regional bank holding companies that often appeal to different segments of the investor base. BFC, headquartered in Manitowoc, Wisconsin, has built a reputation as an active consolidator within its home state. CTBI, based in Pikeville, Kentucky, operates roughly 80 branches across Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia and is known for conservative balance-sheet management and dependable profitability. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing acquisition-fueled growth against organic, income-oriented stability, and for traders monitoring relative performance and market positioning across the regional banking sector.
BFC Overview and Recent Performance
BFC is the holding company for Bank First, N.A., and has used mergers to expand its footprint materially. Its acquisition of Centre 1 Bancorp closed at the start of 2026, adding roughly $1.48 billion in assets, and a further acquisition of Peoples is expected to lift total assets to approximately $7.5 billion once completed. This deal-driven scale has flowed through to results: net interest income (NII), the earnings a bank generates from lending, rose to about $55 million in the most recent quarter, while NIM expanded to 4.13%, well above the Wisconsin state average. The company has also returned capital to shareholders, authorizing a $60 million repurchase program and raising its quarterly dividend. Shares have traded near the middle of their 52-week range in recent market activity, supported by improving fundamentals and a consensus price target of roughly $163.
CTBI Overview and Recent Performance
CTBI is a traditional community banking organization and the third-largest Kentucky-domiciled bank holding company, operating across Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Rather than pursuing mergers, it has grown loans and deposits organically while maintaining strong efficiency. The company posted record earnings for 2025, with net income of about $98 million and earnings per share (EPS) rising 18% year over year, and it followed with record second-quarter results of $1.64 per share. Management raised the quarterly dividend by 23% to $0.65, underscoring confidence in the balance sheet. Its stock has delivered a roughly 31% year-to-date return, though it has pulled back modestly in recent weeks and trades below its 52-week high, with a forward P/E near 11.7 and a dividend yield above 3%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies present contrasting growth models. BFC leans on mergers to accelerate earnings, with the Centre transaction projected to be strongly accretive to EPS over 2026 and 2027, but this strategy introduces integration and execution risk and a higher valuation multiple. CTBI, by contrast, grows more slowly but carries a lower forward P/E and a richer dividend yield, appealing to income-focused investors. On profitability, BFC currently reports a higher NIM, while CTBI stands out on return on assets and efficiency. Risk profiles also differ: CTBI has seen nonperforming loans drift higher recently, though they remain low as a share of total loans, whereas BFC carries the credit and execution risks inherent to digesting new acquisitions. Sector exposure is similar—both are regional community banks sensitive to interest rates and local economic conditions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CTBI for its steadier trend, lower valuation, stronger income profile, and more consistent, organically driven earnings trajectory, while acknowledging that BFC currently shows stronger margin momentum and clearer near-term earnings catalysts from its acquisitions. A probabilistic read suggests CTBI offers a more stable relative positioning for risk-conscious investors, whereas BFC may appeal to those comfortable with integration risk in exchange for faster growth potential. The verdict reflects relative trend consistency and positioning rather than a definitive claim about future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BFC is a Buy and CTBI is a Hold.
BFC in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026
BFC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 39 cases where BFC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 56 cases where BFC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +1.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BFC advanced for three days, in 176 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BFC as a result. In 48 of 105 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BFC turned negative on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
BFC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BFC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 23 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BFC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Aroon Indicator for BFC entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BFC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.922) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (18.471) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. BFC's P/S Ratio (7.358) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.738).
CTBI's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CTBI entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 140 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 74 of the 140 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 29 of 57 cases where CTBI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CTBI as a result. In 39 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CTBI turned negative on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 19 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 41%.
CTBI moved below its 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CTBI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 4 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 33%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CTBI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for CTBI's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Following a +1.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CTBI advanced for three days, in 160 of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
CTBI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CTBI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.392) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (11.407) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.220) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.042) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.606) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
BFC | CTBI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 25 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CTBI's Valuation (66) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (94). This means that CTBI’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
CTBI's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (12). This means that CTBI’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
CTBI's SMR Rating (25) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (30). This means that CTBI’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
CTBI's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (47). This means that CTBI’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
CTBI's P/E Growth Rating (26) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BFC (38). This means that CTBI’s stock grew similarly to BFC’s over the last 12 months.
| BFC | CTBI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 41% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 55% | 7 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 44% | 9 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 53% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BFC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while CTBI’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CTBI’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BFC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CTBI’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BFC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- CTBI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
BFC (@Regional Banks) experienced а -2.80% price change this week, while CTBI (@Regional Banks) price change was -7.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.94%.
Reported Earning Dates
BFC is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
CTBI is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.86% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BFC has been closely correlated with IBCP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BFC jumps, then IBCP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BFC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC | 100% | -4.25% | ||
| IBCP - BFC | 77% Closely correlated | -0.94% | ||
| SRCE - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | -0.66% | ||
| BY - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
| PGC - BFC | 75% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| CTBI - BFC | 74% Closely correlated | -9.26% | ||
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