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BZH vs GRBK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Beazer Homes USA (BZH) vs. Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Beazer Homes USA (BZH) is a value-focused U.S. homebuilder that has agreed to be acquired by Dream Finders Homes for $33.50 per share in cash, a deal that anchors its share price near that level.
- Green Brick Partners (GRBK) operates a land-owning, self-developing homebuilding model in Texas, Georgia, and Florida, sustaining industry-leading gross margins near 28%.
- Relative performance diverges sharply: GRBK remains consistently profitable with an investment-grade-style balance sheet, while BZH has reported recent net losses and higher leverage.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: GRBK is the favored ticker based on stronger trend consistency, profitability, and relative market positioning.
- For more context, explore BZH Major News and BZH Today's Price Move, plus GRBK Major News and GRBK Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI trading systems are navigating this market, visit the curated Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Both BZH and GRBK operate in the U.S. homebuilding industry, yet they represent very different investment profiles. Beazer Homes USA is a national, entry-level and first-move-up builder currently subject to a pending all-cash acquisition, while Green Brick Partners is a regional land-owning builder concentrated in high-growth Sun Belt markets. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders weighing a merger-driven, price-anchored situation against a fundamentally stronger, organically growing operator. By examining business models, recent momentum, balance-sheet strength, and market sentiment, readers can better assess the trade-offs in relative performance and market positioning between these two homebuilders.
BZH Overview and Recent Performance
Beazer Homes USA designs and builds single-family homes, townhomes, and active-adult communities under the Beazer, Gatherings, and Choice Plans brands, with a focus on energy-efficient, "Zero Energy Ready" construction. In recent months, the defining event for the stock has been a definitive merger agreement with Dream Finders Homes, which values Beazer at roughly $2.2 billion, or $33.50 per share in cash. As a result, the share price has traded close to the deal price, with movements now driven less by operating results and more by merger completion expectations.
Operationally, Beazer has faced headwinds. Recent quarterly results showed homebuilding revenue declining on lower closings, a net loss, and a homebuilding gross margin that has slipped year over year. The company's total debt-to-capital ratio has also risen, reflecting higher leverage than many peers. While net new orders and average selling prices have held up modestly, the fundamental picture is one of softer demand and margin compression, offset primarily by the certainty of the pending acquisition.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners is a diversified homebuilder and land developer that owns and self-develops its land in infill and infill-adjacent submarkets across Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Its brands include Trophy Signature Homes, which has been a key growth driver. In recent market activity, GRBK has demonstrated resilience despite affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates, sustaining homebuilding gross margins near 28%—among the highest in the public homebuilder group.
Recent results showed net new orders and home deliveries rising modestly year over year, a low cancellation rate, and a growing financial services segment through its Green Brick Mortgage arm. The balance sheet remains a standout, with homebuilding debt-to-total capital in the low teens and substantial liquidity. Book value per share has continued to climb, supported by share repurchases and disciplined land investment. This combination of profitability, low leverage, and consistent execution has underpinned a more stable relative performance than many peers in the sector.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two homebuilders is structural. GRBK owns and develops its land, which locks in lot costs and supports superior gross margins, while BZH operates a more asset-light, option-based land strategy with a value-oriented product mix. On profitability, GRBK has continued to generate solid net income, whereas BZH has swung to losses amid weaker closings and margin pressure.
Balance-sheet positioning also differs materially. GRBK carries low leverage with net debt-to-capital in the single-to-low-double digits, providing financial flexibility through the housing cycle. BZH's leverage is considerably higher, though the pending acquisition reduces the relevance of its standalone capital structure for near-term investors. In terms of catalysts, BZH's primary driver is merger completion, which caps upside near the deal price. GRBK's catalysts are more organic—continued expansion of Trophy Signature Homes, growth in Green Brick Mortgage, and share repurchases. On risk, BZH faces deal-execution risk, while GRBK is exposed to sustained affordability pressure and potential slowdown in its concentrated Texas footprint.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently favor GRBK over BZH. Green Brick Partners combines more consistent trend behavior, sustained profitability, industry-leading margins, and a low-leverage balance sheet—characteristics that typically signal greater stability and stronger relative positioning. By contrast, Beazer's share price is largely anchored to a fixed acquisition price, limiting both downside and upside while its standalone fundamentals remain soft. While the merger offers BZH holders a degree of certainty, GRBK's broader set of organic growth catalysts and financial resilience make it the more probable choice for an AI-driven, trend-focused selection in the current market environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BZH is a StrongBuy and GRBK is a Hold.
BZH in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
BZH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 35 cases where BZH's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BZH as a result. In 58 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +0.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BZH advanced for three days, in 221 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 168 of 255 cases where BZH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BZH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.779) is normal, around the industry mean (1.847). BZH's P/E Ratio (-95.657) is considerably lower than the industry average of (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.459) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). BZH has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.060) as compared to the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (0.452) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
GRBK saw its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for GRBK moved out of overbought territory on October 29, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 66 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 45 of the 66 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRBK's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GRBK as a result. In 58 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
GRBK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.422) is normal, around the industry mean (1.847). P/E Ratio (9.569) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
BZH | GRBK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 42 Fair valued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 71 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BZH's Valuation (42) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (45). This means that BZH’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as BZH (48). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to BZH’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BZH (91). This means that GRBK’s stock grew somewhat faster than BZH’s over the last 12 months.
BZH's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (71). This means that BZH’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's P/E Growth Rating (35) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BZH (100). This means that GRBK’s stock grew somewhat faster than BZH’s over the last 12 months.
| BZH | GRBK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 89% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 77% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 5 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BZH’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while GRBK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BZH’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- GRBK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BZH’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GRBK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BZH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 1 bearish.
- GRBK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BZH (@Homebuilding) experienced а 0.00% price change this week, while GRBK (@Homebuilding) price change was -0.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +0.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.94%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
BZH is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+0.98% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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BZH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BZH has been loosely correlated with LGIH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BZH jumps, then LGIH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BZH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BZH | 100% | N/A | ||
| LGIH - BZH | 54% Loosely correlated | +6.87% | ||
| GRBK - BZH | 46% Loosely correlated | +4.72% | ||
| DFH - BZH | 46% Loosely correlated | +11.85% | ||
| LEN - BZH | 46% Loosely correlated | +4.69% | ||
| TOL - BZH | 45% Loosely correlated | +5.07% | ||
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