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BZH vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Beazer Homes (BZH) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BZH is a value-focused national homebuilder now under a definitive all-cash acquisition agreement with Dream Finders Homes, while TOL remains an independent, large-cap luxury homebuilder.
- TOL has sustained profitability, a far stronger balance sheet, and a growing luxury order book, whereas BZH has posted recent net losses amid margin compression and elevated leverage.
- Both stocks are exposed to elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures, but their buyer segments, scale, and capital positions differ materially.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: The AI analysis currently favors TOL over BZH based on stronger trend consistency, profitability, and balance-sheet stability.
- For more detail, explore BZH Major News and BZH Today's Price Move, as well as TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across the market, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Beazer Homes USA (BZH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) both operate in U.S. homebuilding, yet they represent sharply different ends of the sector. Beazer is a mid-cap, entry-level and move-up builder whose shares have been driven recently by an acquisition agreement, while Toll Brothers is a large-cap luxury specialist with a long track record of profitability. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing turnaround potential and deal-driven valuation against steady earnings and market positioning. Both companies face the same macro backdrop of elevated mortgage rates and affordability constraints, but their relative performance and risk profiles have diverged meaningfully in recent market activity.
BZH Overview and Recent Performance
Beazer Homes USA, headquartered in Atlanta, builds energy-efficient, value-oriented single-family homes primarily in Sun Belt growth markets. In recent weeks, the company's narrative has been dominated by its pending acquisition: Beazer entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Dream Finders Homes in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $2.2 billion, or $33.50 per share. That announcement reshaped how the market prices BZH, shifting attention from operating results toward deal completion risk.
Fundamentally, recent quarters have been challenging. Beazer reported a fiscal third-quarter net loss and year-over-year revenue declines, with homebuilding gross margins under pressure from price concessions, closing-cost incentives, and lower closings. The company's total debt-to-capitalization ratio has risen above 55%, and it recently issued $400 million of 8.000% senior unsecured notes to refinance nearer-term maturities. These factors point to a more leveraged, less stable financial position, even as management has emphasized share repurchases and cost discipline.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, a Fortune 500 company based in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, is the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, operating in more than 60 markets. Unlike BZH, TOL remains an independent operator focused on affluent first-time, move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers. In recent market activity, the company has continued to deliver solid, if moderating, profitability.
In its most recent reported quarter, Toll Brothers generated roughly $2.5 billion in home sales revenue and about $260 million in net income, with net signed contracts rising in both units and dollar value year over year. Average selling prices remain near or above $1 million, reflecting its luxury mix. Gross margins have compressed from prior-year peaks, and the company has taken some inventory impairments, but its balance sheet remains conservative, with a debt-to-capital ratio in the mid-20% range, more than $1 billion in cash, and continued share buybacks plus a recently raised dividend. This relative stability has supported a more consistent price trend for TOL.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a focused selection from hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively monitor thousands of different tickers. Because not every automated strategy suits every market regime, only the bots best aligned with current conditions earn placement in this featured section. These bots vary widely in trading style, timeframe, strategy, performance history, and the specific sets of tickers they trade, ranging from short-term momentum models to longer-horizon trend-following systems. Investors exploring a BZH versus TOL comparison can use these tools to see how automated, rules-based approaches are positioning across the homebuilding sector. Browse the Trending AI Robots list to identify strategies that match your own risk tolerance and timeframe.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale and business model. TOL targets high-income buyers with average selling prices around $1 million, giving it a premium margin profile and more resilient demand from affluent customers. BZH serves more rate-sensitive, entry-level and move-up buyers with average selling prices in the mid-$500,000s, a segment more exposed to affordability swings.
Financially, the gap is wide. TOL is consistently profitable, holds a large cash balance, and carries modest leverage. BZH has swung to losses, carries meaningfully higher leverage, and recently issued higher-yield debt. On the other hand, BZH's pending acquisition creates a potential near-term catalyst tied to deal closing, whereas TOL's outlook hinges on organic demand and margin recovery. Sector exposure is similar — both are rate-sensitive homebuilders — but risk factors differ: execution and balance-sheet risk dominate for BZH, while margin compression and luxury-demand cyclicality are the primary concerns for TOL.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, profitability, stability, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor TOL over BZH. Toll Brothers offers a more consistent earnings trend, a stronger balance sheet, sustained order growth, and a steadier price trajectory, all of which align with rules-based systems that reward stability and confirmed momentum. Beazer's pending acquisition introduces a meaningful catalyst but also carries execution and leverage uncertainties that reduce trend reliability. While no automated system can guarantee outcomes, the balance of current signals tilts probabilistically toward TOL as the more favorable of the two.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BZH is a StrongBuy and TOL is a Buy.
BZH in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
BZH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 35 cases where BZH's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BZH as a result. In 58 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +0.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BZH advanced for three days, in 221 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 168 of 255 cases where BZH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BZH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.779) is normal, around the industry mean (1.847). BZH's P/E Ratio (-95.657) is considerably lower than the industry average of (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.459) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). BZH has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.060) as compared to the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (0.452) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.656) is normal, around the industry mean (1.847). P/E Ratio (12.268) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
BZH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 42 Fair valued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BZH's Valuation (42) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (69). This means that BZH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as BZH (48). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to BZH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BZH (91). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than BZH’s over the last 12 months.
BZH's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (46). This means that BZH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Homebuilding industry is significantly better than the same rating for BZH (100). This means that TOL’s stock grew significantly faster than BZH’s over the last 12 months.
| BZH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 16 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BZH’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BZH’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BZH’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BZH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 1 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BZH (@Homebuilding) experienced а 0.00% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +9.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +0.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.94%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
BZH is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+0.98% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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BZH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BZH has been loosely correlated with LGIH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BZH jumps, then LGIH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BZH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BZH | 100% | N/A | ||
| LGIH - BZH | 54% Loosely correlated | +6.87% | ||
| GRBK - BZH | 46% Loosely correlated | +4.72% | ||
| DFH - BZH | 46% Loosely correlated | +11.85% | ||
| LEN - BZH | 46% Loosely correlated | +4.69% | ||
| TOL - BZH | 45% Loosely correlated | +5.07% | ||
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TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.