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BZH vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Beazer Homes USA (BZH) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- TOL boasts a market capitalization of approximately $13-14 billion, dwarfing BZH's $0.6-0.7 billion, reflecting greater scale in the homebuilding sector.
- BZH reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $409.85 million, down 27.5% year-over-year, though it beat EPS expectations with a narrower loss.
- TOL delivered Q1 revenue growth of 15.4% to $2.15 billion, showcasing resilience amid housing market challenges.
- Both stocks have faced downward pressure in recent weeks, with BZH declining about 7% over the past month and TOL showing mixed short-term moves but stronger year-to-date positioning.
- Homebuilding sector headwinds like high interest rates impact both, but TOL's luxury focus and expansion provide relative stability.
- Tickeron's AI models currently favor TOL for its trend consistency and market positioning.
Introduction
Beazer Homes USA (BZH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are prominent players in the U.S. homebuilding industry, navigating a landscape shaped by interest rate fluctuations, affordability concerns, and shifting buyer sentiment. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business models, and market dynamics, offering insights for investors tracking the residential construction sector. Traders seeking relative value in cyclical stocks or long-term holders assessing housing market exposure will find this head-to-head review particularly relevant in the current environment.
BZH Overview and Recent Performance
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH), headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, specializes in energy-efficient single-family and multi-family homes across key U.S. markets. In recent market activity, the stock has underperformed, with shares down roughly 7% over the past month and 15% over three months, amid broader sector pressures. The company's Q2 fiscal 2026 results highlighted challenges, including a 27.5% revenue drop to $409.85 million and a small loss of $0.03 per share, though this beat consensus expectations. Sentiment has been influenced by softening orders and cancellations around 13.5%, prompting analyst revisions lower. However, BZH expanded its revolving credit facility to $525 million, bolstering liquidity. High mortgage rates and economic uncertainty have weighed on performance, yet strategic shifts toward to-be-built sales aim to support future growth.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) designs, builds, and markets luxury detached and attached homes across over 60 markets in 24 states. The stock has exhibited volatility in recent weeks, with short-term dips like 5-7% over recent seven- to 30-day periods, but maintains a robust one-year gain approaching 50% in some measures. Q1 results showed revenue up 15.4% to $2.15 billion, driven by strong demand in premium segments despite fewer-than-expected contract signings. Key developments include model home openings and acquisitions like Buffington Homes assets, signaling expansion. Market sentiment reflects resilience, with analysts noting potential undervaluation amid fluctuations. Elevated rates have tempered quick-move sales, but TOL's scale and luxury positioning have sustained relative outperformance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both BZH and TOL operate in homebuilding but differ in scale and focus: TOL targets luxury buyers with broader geographic reach, while BZH emphasizes affordable, energy-efficient homes. Growth drivers favor TOL, with recent revenue expansion contrasting BZH's contraction. Recent momentum shows both pressured by rising rates, but TOL's larger backlog provides a buffer. Risk factors include interest sensitivity and inventory management, amplified for smaller BZH. Sector exposure is similar, yet TOL benefits from premium pricing power. Market sentiment leans toward TOL for its stability versus BZH's volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor TOL over BZH, citing superior trend consistency, revenue growth, and scale advantages amid housing sector headwinds. While both face affordability challenges, TOL's catalysts like expansions and luxury demand position it more favorably, with higher probabilities of relative outperformance in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BZH is a Hold and TOL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BZH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BZH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BZH’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BZH’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BZH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +39.55% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +0.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -0.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
BZH is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on May 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-0.03% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| BZH | TOL | BZH / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 688M | 12.8B | 5% |
| EBITDA | -11.12M | 1.8B | -1% |
| Gain YTD | 24.124 | 0.319 | 7,566% |
| P/E Ratio | 74.45 | 9.70 | 767% |
| Revenue | 2.11B | 11.3B | 19% |
| Total Cash | 116M | 1.2B | 10% |
| Total Debt | 1.25B | 2.85B | 44% |
BZH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 51 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (76) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as BZH (98). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to BZH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (48) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BZH (84). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than BZH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (51) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BZH (90). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than BZH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as BZH (83). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to BZH’s over the last 12 months.
BZH's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (25). This means that BZH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| BZH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 7 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 76% | 9 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 62% |
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BZH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BZH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BZH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.