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CAL vs ROST
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Caleres (CAL) vs. Ross Stores (ROST) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Caleres (CAL) is a $398 million micro-cap footwear company that has faced significant earnings pressure, posting a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net loss in fiscal 2025 while integrating the Stuart Weitzman acquisition.
- Ross Stores (ROST) is a $75 billion large-cap off-price retail leader with accelerating comparable store sales, rising profitability, and a strong shareholder return program through aggressive stock buybacks.
- The two companies operate at dramatically different scales — ROST generates roughly eight times the annual revenue of CAL — and cater to different segments of the consumer discretionary market.
- CAL's stock has declined approximately 12% over the past year, while ROST has surged roughly 81% over the same period, reflecting sharply divergent market sentiment.
- Tariff and trade policy uncertainty impacts both companies, though ROST's off-price business model and scale provide greater flexibility to navigate macroeconomic headwinds.
- CAL trades at a deep value multiple (price-to-sales ratio of 0.14) with recovery potential, while ROST commands a premium valuation backed by consistent earnings execution and momentum.
Introduction
Comparing CAL and ROST offers a compelling study in contrast: a small-cap footwear brand portfolio company versus one of the largest off-price retail chains in the United States. Both compete in the consumer discretionary space, yet their recent performance trajectories, market capitalizations, and business models differ enormously. Investors seeking exposure to retail and apparel must weigh the deep-value, turnaround potential of Caleres against the proven momentum and scale of Ross Stores. This comparison is particularly relevant for those evaluating relative strength, risk tolerance, and positioning within the consumer cyclical sector amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, including evolving tariff policy and shifting consumer spending patterns.
CAL Overview and Recent Performance
CAL, known as Caleres, Inc., is a St. Louis-based footwear company operating through two primary segments: the Brand Portfolio — which includes owned brands such as Famous Footwear, Sam Edelman, Allen Edmonds, and recently acquired Stuart Weitzman — and the Famous Footwear retail chain. The company generates approximately $2.8 billion in annual revenue and maintains a direct-to-consumer sales mix of roughly 73%.
Recent market activity reflects a challenging period for Caleres. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $8.80 to $16.14, with the share price hovering near $11.85 in recent weeks — representing a decline of approximately 12% over the trailing one-year period and a roughly 13% drop over the past three months. Fiscal 2025 proved difficult, as the company reported a GAAP net loss of $0.21 per diluted share, driven in significant part by expenses tied to the Stuart Weitzman acquisition and integration. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.61 for the full year, a steep decline from $3.30 in the prior year. Gross margins contracted across both segments, and selling and administrative expenses (SG&A) deleveraged meaningfully.
On a more constructive note, the Stuart Weitzman integration was completed on time and on budget with minimal business disruption. Management has guided for fiscal 2026 to be a "build-back year," with adjusted EPS projected in the $1.35 to $1.65 range and consolidated net sales expected to grow low-to-mid single digits. Tariff mitigation efforts and a plan to bring Stuart Weitzman to breakeven profitability are central to the recovery narrative. CAL also offers a dividend yield of approximately 2.36%, which may appeal to income-oriented investors willing to accept higher risk.
ROST Overview and Recent Performance
ROST, Ross Stores, Inc., is a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 component headquartered in Dublin, California. The company is the largest off-price apparel and home fashion chain in the United States, operating over 2,270 locations across its Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS banners. Ross Stores generated approximately $22.75 billion in revenue in its most recent fiscal year, making it one of the dominant players in American off-price retail.
Ross Stores has delivered exceptional stock performance in recent market activity. Shares have climbed roughly 81% over the past year and approximately 30% year-to-date, recently trading near $233. The company's momentum accelerated through its fiscal 2025, with comparable store sales rising 7% in the third quarter — a notable acceleration from flat comparable sales in the first quarter. Full-year fiscal 2025 EPS reached $6.61, and management raised guidance multiple times, ultimately projecting fiscal 2025 EPS of $6.38 to $6.46 (excluding a one-time prior-year facility sale benefit).
The off-price model — which offers in-season, branded merchandise at 20% to 60% off traditional retail prices — has proven resilient in an environment where consumers increasingly seek value. Ross Stores has also executed aggressively on shareholder returns, repurchasing approximately $1.05 billion in stock under a $2.1 billion authorization. CEO Jim Conroy has emphasized the company's "flexible off-price business model" and "strong financial foundation" as key assets in navigating an uncertain macroeconomic and trade policy landscape. While tariffs on Chinese-origin goods remain a risk — more than half of merchandise sold originates from China — the direct import exposure is relatively limited, and tariff-related cost impacts have been manageable.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between CAL and ROST extends beyond market capitalization. Caleres operates as a brand owner and specialty retailer, relying on the strength of its proprietary footwear labels and the Famous Footwear brick-and-mortar chain. Ross Stores, by contrast, runs an asset-light off-price model that sources excess inventory from department stores and brand manufacturers, passing steep discounts to consumers. This distinction has meaningful implications: Ross Stores benefits when traditional retail faces inventory gluts, while Caleres is exposed to the same full-price retail pressures it seeks to navigate.
From a growth perspective, ROST has demonstrated consistent top-line expansion and comparable store sales gains, while CAL is in the early stages of what management calls a recovery year. Ross Stores' revenue of $22.75 billion dwarfs Caleres' $2.76 billion, and ROST's net income of approximately $2.15 billion stands in stark contrast to CAL's break-even-to-slightly-profitable adjusted results. On valuation, CAL appears far cheaper with a price-to-sales ratio of just 0.14 versus a substantially higher multiple for ROST — but this discount reflects genuine earnings uncertainty.
Risk profiles differ materially. CAL's concentrated brand portfolio and ongoing Stuart Weitzman turnaround introduce execution risk, while its micro-cap status means higher volatility and lower institutional coverage. ROST faces its own challenges — notably tariff exposure through Chinese-origin goods and consumer spending sensitivity — but its scale, diversification across 2,270+ stores, and proven off-price model provide structural advantages. Sentiment heavily favors ROST, as reflected in the stock's 81% one-year gain versus CAL's double-digit decline.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, earnings quality, and market positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely favor ROST in the current environment. Ross Stores exhibits stronger and more consistent price trend signals, accelerating comparable store sales, robust profitability, and a management team that has repeatedly raised guidance against a challenging macro backdrop. The company's off-price model has historically outperformed in periods of consumer trade-down, and its shareholder return program underscores balance-sheet confidence. Caleres, while trading at deeply discounted valuation levels that could attract contrarian interest, lacks the trend stability and earnings visibility that AI models typically prioritize. The probabilistic assessment tilts toward ROST for trend-following and quality-oriented strategies, while CAL may appeal primarily to deep-value or special-situation frameworks willing to accept higher uncertainty for potentially asymmetric upside if the fiscal 2026 recovery materializes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CAL is a Buy and ROST is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileROST’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- CAL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ROST’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ROST’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ROST’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CAL (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) experienced а +0.17% price change this week, while ROST (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price change was +7.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear Retail industry was +1.19%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.94%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAL is expected to report earnings on Sep 02, 2026.
ROST is expected to report earnings on Aug 13, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Apparel/Footwear Retail (+1.19% weekly)Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.
| CAL | ROST | CAL / ROST | |
| Capitalization | 398M | 75.6B | 1% |
| EBITDA | 85M | 3.6B | 2% |
| Gain YTD | -1.421 | 31.422 | -5% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.77 | 32.93 | 51% |
| Revenue | 2.81B | 23.8B | 12% |
| Total Cash | 37.7M | 4.13B | 1% |
| Total Debt | 949M | 4.72B | 20% |
CAL | ROST | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 7 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 11 Undervalued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 19 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CAL's Valuation (11) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is significantly better than the same rating for ROST (93) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that CAL’s stock grew significantly faster than ROST’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is significantly better than the same rating for CAL (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry. This means that ROST’s stock grew significantly faster than CAL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's SMR Rating (24) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is significantly better than the same rating for CAL (91) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry. This means that ROST’s stock grew significantly faster than CAL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's Price Growth Rating (19) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CAL (72) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry. This means that ROST’s stock grew somewhat faster than CAL’s over the last 12 months.
CAL's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Apparel Or Footwear industry is in the same range as ROST (16) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that CAL’s stock grew similarly to ROST’s over the last 12 months.
| CAL | ROST | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 77% | 26 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 67% |
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CAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CAL has been closely correlated with DBI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CAL jumps, then DBI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CAL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 100% | +0.08% | ||
| DBI - CAL | 67% Closely correlated | -0.70% | ||
| SHOE - CAL | 60% Loosely correlated | +2.55% | ||
| SHOO - CAL | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.35% | ||
| ZUMZ - CAL | 55% Loosely correlated | +1.44% | ||
| GAP - CAL | 50% Loosely correlated | -2.31% | ||
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ROST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ROST has been loosely correlated with BURL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ROST jumps, then BURL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ROST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | 100% | +0.99% | ||
| BURL - ROST | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.98% | ||
| CAL - ROST | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| GCO - ROST | 37% Loosely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| BOOT - ROST | 37% Loosely correlated | -1.67% | ||
| URBN - ROST | 37% Loosely correlated | +2.53% | ||
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