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BURL vs ROST
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. Ross Stores (ROST) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BURL and ROST are leading off-price retailers, but they operate at very different scales and growth stages.
- Recent momentum favors Ross Stores, whose comparable-store sales rose roughly 10% in its latest quarter, versus about 2% for Burlington Stores.
- Burlington is executing an aggressive store-expansion plan, while Ross is focused on improving merchandising, marketing, and the in-store experience.
- Both companies recognized one-time tariff refunds, but handled them differently: Ross largely reported them in earnings, while Burlington plans to reinvest them into lower prices.
- Ross carries a substantially larger market capitalization and stronger recent share-price momentum; Burlington offers a smaller, faster-growing store base.
Introduction
Burlington Stores and Ross Stores are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. off-price retail, a segment that historically gains share when consumers seek value. Comparing the two is useful for investors evaluating the trade-off between a faster-growing, smaller retailer (BURL) and a larger, more mature incumbent (ROST). This stock comparison reviews recent relative performance, business momentum, and market positioning to help traders and investors assess how these companies stack up in the current environment.
BURL Overview and Recent Performance
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates off-price apparel and home merchandise stores across the United States and is pursuing a multi-year expansion initiative known as "Burlington 2.0," which emphasizes better buying, faster merchandise flow, and store assortments tailored to local markets. In its most recent fiscal quarter, total sales increased 11% year over year to roughly $3.0 billion, while comparable-store sales rose 2%, at the midpoint of guidance but below management's internal expectations.
Recent performance has been shaped by margin progress and continued store growth. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS, a company's profit divided by its outstanding shares) rose 38% excluding a $55 million tariff refund, which management said it would reinvest into sharper customer values. Burlington added 45 net new stores in the quarter to reach 1,287 locations and raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook. Sentiment has been tempered, however, by elevated store cannibalization from rapid openings and management's caution about pressure on moderate- and lower-income shoppers.
ROST Overview and Recent Performance
Ross Stores, Inc. is the largest off-price apparel and home fashion chain in the United States, operating Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS across roughly 2,300 stores. In its latest quarter, total sales rose 13% to approximately $6.27 billion, while comparable-store sales climbed 10%, driven primarily by customer traffic rather than higher prices.
Ross has shown stronger near-term momentum than many peers, adding new customers, regaining lapsed shoppers, and increasing visit frequency among existing customers. Management noted broad-based strength across categories, with home and cosmetics among the top performers. Ross also raised its second-half and full-year outlook and increased its store-opening plan to 115 locations. Like Burlington, Ross recorded a tariff refund (about $253 million, tied to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA), which boosted reported results. The stock has rallied strongly in the year-to-date period, reflecting this momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most visible contrast between the two companies is scale and growth trajectory. Ross generates roughly twice Burlington's quarterly revenue and operates nearly 2,300 stores, giving it a larger base but a more gradual growth profile. Burlington, with about 1,290 stores, is growing its footprint faster on a percentage basis and has more room for unit expansion.
Momentum also diverges. Ross's comparable-store sales growth has been driven by traffic gains across income and age groups, a sign of broadening customer engagement. Burlington's comparable-store growth has been more modest and partly weighed down by cannibalization from new openings. On capital returns, Ross combines share repurchases with a regular quarterly dividend, while Burlington has focused repurchases on stock buybacks rather than a dividend.
Risk factors overlap. Both retailers serve value-conscious consumers sensitive to inflation, fuel prices, and discretionary spending trends, and both carry tariff-related exposure. Ross has treated its tariff refund as largely reported income, while Burlington is reinvesting its refund into lower prices, a strategic trade-off between near-term earnings and customer value.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, traffic-driven comparable-store growth, and upward guidance revisions, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ROST at present. Ross Stores has demonstrated stronger and more consistent recent momentum, broad customer engagement, and a raised outlook, all of which are characteristics AI models tend to weigh favorably. BURL retains a compelling long-term store-growth story and improving margins, but its near-term trend has been less consistent. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current market positioning rather than a prediction of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BURL is a Hold and ROST is a Hold.
BURL's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for BURL moved out of oversold territory on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BURL just turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where BURL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +1.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BURL advanced for three days, in 219 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 180 of 250 cases where BURL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 63 cases where BURL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BURL as a result. In 64 of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The 50-day moving average for BURL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BURL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BURL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BURL's P/B Ratio (8.354) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.366). P/E Ratio (23.934) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.955) is also within normal values, averaging (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.212) is also within normal values, averaging (0.652).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BURL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
ROST in -1.38% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on October 09, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where ROST declined for three days, in 157 of 295 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ROST as a result. In 44 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ROST turned negative on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 21 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.
The Aroon Indicator for ROST entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ROST advanced for three days, in 215 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ROST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ROST's P/B Ratio (11.236) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.366). P/E Ratio (28.669) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). ROST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.542) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. ROST's P/S Ratio (2.952) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
BURL | ROST | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 95 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 66 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BURL's Valuation (78) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as ROST (95). This means that BURL’s stock grew similarly to ROST’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is significantly better than the same rating for BURL (100). This means that ROST’s stock grew significantly faster than BURL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's SMR Rating (24) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (25). This means that ROST’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (57). This means that ROST’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BURL (66). This means that ROST’s stock grew somewhat faster than BURL’s over the last 12 months.
| BURL | ROST | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 44% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 72% | 17 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 6 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 35% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BURL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ROST’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BURL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ROST’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BURL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ROST’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BURL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ROST’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BURL (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) experienced а -4.75% price change this week, while ROST (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price change was +0.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear Retail industry was -1.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.24%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.35%.
Reported Earning Dates
BURL is expected to report earnings on Nov 24, 2026.
ROST is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Apparel/Footwear Retail (-1.96% weekly)Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.
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BURL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BURL has been loosely correlated with ROST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BURL jumps, then ROST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BURL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURL | 100% | -1.81% | ||
| ROST - BURL | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| TJX - BURL | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.30% | ||
| DBI - BURL | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.86% | ||
| BOOT - BURL | 35% Loosely correlated | -2.00% | ||
| CAL - BURL | 34% Loosely correlated | +0.82% | ||
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ROST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ROST has been loosely correlated with BURL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ROST jumps, then BURL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ROST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | 100% | -0.07% | ||
| BURL - ROST | 52% Loosely correlated | -1.81% | ||
| CAL - ROST | 43% Loosely correlated | +0.82% | ||
| GCO - ROST | 38% Loosely correlated | +0.06% | ||
| DBI - ROST | 37% Loosely correlated | +0.86% | ||
| BKE - ROST | 36% Loosely correlated | +1.02% | ||
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