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BURL vs ROST
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. Ross Stores (ROST) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Ross Stores (ROST) has delivered stronger recent momentum, with comparable-store sales up 10% in its latest quarter and shares up roughly 34% year to date.
- Burlington Stores (BURL) posted solid earnings growth but saw its stock pull back from July 2026 highs after a more cautious consumer-spending outlook.
- Both companies are off-price apparel retailers benefiting from tariff refunds, but ROST is scaling faster on traffic-driven demand, while BURL leans more on rapid new-store expansion.
- ROST is the larger, more mature operator with a broader store base, while BURL offers a higher unit-growth trajectory and a smaller relative footprint.
- On relative performance and trend consistency, the observable evidence currently tilts in favor of ROST, though BURL retains a longer-run growth narrative.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the off-price retail segment often weigh BURL (Burlington Stores) against ROST (Ross Stores) because both companies compete for value-conscious shoppers while pursuing distinct growth strategies. Burlington is a smaller, faster-expanding operator known for its "treasure hunt" store experience, whereas Ross is the largest off-price apparel and home fashion chain in the United States. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and long-term investors seeking to understand relative performance, market positioning, and which name currently shows stronger trend consistency. Because the two stocks have diverged meaningfully in recent months, a head-to-head review of momentum, fundamentals, and risk factors can help clarify the trade-offs between a high-growth story and a more established, traffic-driven leader.
BURL Overview and Recent Performance
Burlington Stores, headquartered in New Jersey, operates a national off-price chain selling branded apparel, footwear, accessories, and home goods at discounts to department-store prices. In its most recent fiscal quarter, total sales rose about 11% to roughly $3.0 billion, while comparable-store sales increased 2%, a deceleration from 5% growth a year earlier as rapid store openings created cannibalization headwinds. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS), which measures profit per outstanding share, climbed 38% excluding tariff refunds, and management raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $11.77 to $11.97.
Despite the earnings beat, BURL shares fell roughly 8% following the report, and the stock has pulled back from its mid-2026 52-week high near $378 to the mid-$260s in recent weeks. Sentiment has been shaped by softer comparable-sales trends, a more cautious read on spending among moderate- and lower-income households, and management's decision to reinvest tariff refunds into lower prices rather than earnings. The company continues to open stores aggressively, targeting roughly 115 net new locations for the fiscal year.
ROST Overview and Recent Performance
Ross Stores, based in Dublin, California, operates the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS banners, offering in-season branded apparel and home fashions at 20% to 60% off department and specialty store prices. As the largest player in off-price retail, it maintains a significantly larger store base, exceeding 2,200 locations. In its latest quarter, total sales grew about 13% to $6.27 billion, with comparable-store sales up 10%, driven primarily by higher customer traffic and stronger engagement from new, lapsed, and existing shoppers.
The company raised its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $8.61 to $8.77 after reporting adjusted EPS of $2.06, and it increased its fiscal-year store-opening plan to 115 new locations. ROST shares have climbed roughly 34% year to date and recently touched a 52-week high, reflecting broad-based category strength and improving merchandising. While the quarter also included a one-time tariff-refund benefit, underlying operating margin still expanded meaningfully, signaling durable momentum rather than a purely one-off boost.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is one of momentum versus growth trajectory. ROST is currently converting customer traffic into double-digit comparable-store gains, supported by a value proposition that resonates across income and age groups. Its scale, stronger brand relationships, and rising store productivity give it a steadier operating profile. BURL, by comparison, is a smaller company growing its footprint rapidly—its long-term plan points toward continued market-share capture through new locations—but that same expansion introduces cannibalization and higher execution risk in the near term.
On valuation and market positioning, ROST trades at a premium multiple, reflecting its leadership position and momentum, while BURL has de-rated as growth has moderated. Risk factors also differ: Ross carries broad geographic and category diversification, whereas Burlington's smaller base makes it more sensitive to weather, seasonal transitions, and consumer-spending pressure on lower-income households. In terms of sentiment, Ross's outperformance has been rewarded by the market, while Burlington faces a more skeptical response to near-term guidance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, relative momentum, stability, and catalyst quality—Tickeron's AI would likely favor ROST over BURL in the current environment. Ross demonstrates a more consistent uptrend, traffic-driven comparable sales, broad-based category strength, and a clear upward revision cycle, all of which are characteristics that quantitative trend-following models tend to reward. Burlington's faster store growth and longer-run unit economics remain attractive, but its recent share-price pullback, decelerating comparable sales, and cautious consumer commentary introduce more near-term uncertainty. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: conditions can shift, and Burlington's valuation reset could eventually become a catalyst of its own.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BURL is a Hold and ROST is a Buy.
BURL sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
BURL saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 21, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 41 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BURL as a result. In 63 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BURL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BURL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BURL advanced for three days, in 219 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
BURL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 250 cases where BURL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BURL's P/B Ratio (7.491) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.849). P/E Ratio (21.019) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.607). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.955) is also within normal values, averaging (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.212) is also within normal values, averaging (0.652).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BURL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BURL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
ROST in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ROST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +1.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ROST advanced for three days, in 212 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ROST as a result. In 43 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ROST turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 51%.
ROST moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ROST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ROST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ROST's P/B Ratio (10.924) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.849). P/E Ratio (27.682) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.607). ROST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.542) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. ROST's P/S Ratio (2.952) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
BURL | ROST | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BURL's Valuation (70) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as ROST (94). This means that BURL’s stock grew similarly to ROST’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is significantly better than the same rating for BURL (100). This means that ROST’s stock grew significantly faster than BURL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's SMR Rating (24) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (25). This means that ROST’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (77). This means that ROST’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's P/E Growth Rating (35) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BURL (82). This means that ROST’s stock grew somewhat faster than BURL’s over the last 12 months.
| BURL | ROST | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 72% | 16 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 67% | 7 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BURL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ROST’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BURL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ROST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BURL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ROST’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BURL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ROST’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BURL (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) experienced а -1.03% price change this week, while ROST (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price change was -1.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear Retail industry was +0.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.36%.
Reported Earning Dates
BURL is expected to report earnings on Nov 24, 2026.
ROST is expected to report earnings on Nov 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Apparel/Footwear Retail (+0.16% weekly)Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.
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BURL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BURL has been loosely correlated with ROST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BURL jumps, then ROST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BURL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURL | 100% | +0.71% | ||
| ROST - BURL | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.01% | ||
| TJX - BURL | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.49% | ||
| DBI - BURL | 41% Loosely correlated | -1.48% | ||
| SHOE - BURL | 34% Loosely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| BOOT - BURL | 34% Loosely correlated | +3.84% | ||
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