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CARR vs JCI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) vs. Johnson Controls International (JCI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Carrier Global (CARR) is navigating a mixed environment: booming commercial HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) and data center demand counterbalanced by prolonged weakness in residential markets, particularly in the Americas.
- Johnson Controls (JCI) closed fiscal 2025 with record backlog of approximately $15 billion and 6% organic sales growth, driven by data center cooling, decarbonization projects, and a strengthening systems-and-services revenue model.
- Both companies are capitalizing on the AI-driven data center buildout, but JCI's broader portfolio of smart building solutions and recurring service revenue offers greater earnings visibility, while CARR's aggressive share buyback program signals management confidence in a residential recovery.
- JCI guided for adjusted EPS (earnings per share) growth exceeding 20% in fiscal 2026; CARR guided for flat to low-single-digit organic growth with adjusted EPS of approximately $2.80, reflecting a more cautious near-term trajectory.
- For investors seeking stability and consistent momentum, JCI's record backlog and margin expansion story stand out. For those willing to accept near-term cyclical risk in exchange for potential upside when residential markets turn, CARR's valuation and capital return program may hold appeal.
Introduction
In the rapidly evolving landscape of intelligent climate and energy solutions, two industrial giants stand at the intersection of traditional HVAC manufacturing and the high-growth megatrends of data center cooling, building automation, and decarbonization. CARR and JCI may appear similar at first glance, but their business mixes, growth trajectories, and market positioning diverge in ways that matter deeply for portfolio allocation. This stock comparison examines how each company has performed in recent market activity, what is driving sentiment, and how an AI-driven analytical framework might weigh the trade-offs between these two climate-solutions leaders.
CARR Overview and Recent Performance
Carrier Global Corporation is a Florida-based global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, operating across four segments: Climate Solutions Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific/Middle East/Africa, and Transportation. The company's iconic brand is synonymous with air conditioning and refrigeration, and it has increasingly positioned itself at the center of commercial HVAC demand tied to the data center boom.
In recent market activity, CARR shares have shown notable recovery from their 52-week lows near $50, climbing into the upper $60s and reflecting a year-to-date gain exceeding 30%. This rebound has been fueled by exceptional strength in the commercial HVAC business, where orders surged nearly 50% in the most recently reported quarter, anchored by major hyperscale data center wins. The aftermarket business — a high-margin, recurring revenue stream — posted a fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth, reinforcing the durability of Carrier's installed base.
However, the residential side of the business remains a significant drag. The Climate Solutions Americas residential segment experienced sales declines of approximately 30% in certain recent periods, driven by distributor destocking, elevated field inventories, and softer consumer demand. Full-year 2025 sales of $21.75 billion represented a 3% decline from 2024, with adjusted EPS of $2.59. Management has responded with cost-reduction initiatives, including eliminating roughly 3,000 indirect positions, and authorized a $5 billion share repurchase program, returning substantial capital to shareholders. The 2026 outlook calls for flat to low-single-digit organic growth as the residential headwinds gradually ease and commercial momentum continues.
JCI Overview and Recent Performance
Johnson Controls International plc, headquartered in Cork, Ireland, is a global leader in smart, healthy, and sustainable building solutions. Following the divestiture of its Residential and Light Commercial HVAC business to Bosch Group for approximately $8.3 billion, JCI has sharpened its focus on commercial buildings, systems integration, controls, and service-based revenue streams — areas where it commands significant competitive advantages.
In recent quarters, JCI has delivered a compelling performance narrative. Fiscal 2025 organic sales grew 6%, adjusted segment EBITA (earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization) margin expanded 100 basis points to 17.1%, and adjusted EPS rose 17% to $3.76. The company exited the fiscal year with a record systems and services backlog of approximately $15 billion, up 13% organically — providing substantial visibility into future revenue. Free cash flow conversion reached 102%, exceeding management's targets and underscoring disciplined capital allocation.
Demand in data center thermal management has been a standout, with JCI launching a coolant distribution unit (CDU) for liquid cooling applications and expanding its magnetic-bearing chiller platform. The company's proprietary business system — integrating lean methodologies, 80/20 principles, and AI tools — has begun delivering measurable operational improvements, including over 95% on-time delivery at a key North American chiller plant and a 60% increase in seller-customer engagement time. For fiscal 2026, JCI guided for mid-single-digit organic sales growth and adjusted EPS of approximately $4.55, representing over 20% growth, with operating leverage expected near 50%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both CARR and JCI participate in the global HVAC and building solutions market, their business models and risk profiles differ in several important respects.
Business Model and Revenue Mix: JCI has evolved into a systems-and-services powerhouse — the majority of its revenue now comes from commercial building systems, controls, and recurring service contracts, which provides more predictable cash flows. CARR, by contrast, remains more heavily weighted toward equipment manufacturing, with a sizable residential HVAC business that introduces greater cyclical sensitivity.
Growth Trajectory: JCI's 6% organic growth in fiscal 2025 and 20%-plus EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 reflect strong execution and favorable secular tailwinds. CARR's flat-to-low-single-digit organic growth outlook for 2026 reflects the ongoing residential drag, even as commercial HVAC and aftermarket segments deliver double-digit expansion.
Backlog and Visibility: JCI's $15 billion record backlog provides a clear line of sight into future revenue that CARR, with its shorter-cycle residential business, cannot match. This backlog advantage reduces earnings uncertainty and supports JCI's margin expansion narrative.
Capital Allocation: CARR has leaned aggressively into share repurchases, with $2.9 billion deployed in fiscal 2025 and a new $5 billion authorization. JCI also repurchased nearly $6 billion in shares during fiscal 2025 while investing in operational transformation. Both companies are returning significant capital to shareholders, but CARR's buyback intensity stands out.
Sector and Geographic Exposure: JCI's broader international footprint — particularly in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa), where organic sales grew 9% in the most recent quarter — offers diversification. CARR's Americas-heavy residential exposure amplifies sensitivity to U.S. housing market cycles and interest rate policy.
Risk Factors: For CARR, the primary risk is prolonged residential weakness and the potential for tariff-related cost pressures. For JCI, risks include APAC (Asia-Pacific) softness, particularly in China, and the execution challenges inherent in a multi-year restructuring program expected to incur approximately $400 million in total costs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, backlog visibility, margin trajectory, and earnings momentum, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely express a relative preference for JCI in the current market environment. JCI's record $15 billion backlog, accelerating adjusted EPS growth exceeding 20%, expanding operating margins, and a business mix increasingly weighted toward recurring services and mission-critical commercial applications create a more statistically consistent trend profile — the kind of pattern that quantitative models tend to favor. CARR's commercial HVAC and data center story is compelling, and its aggressive capital return program may reward patient investors, but the pronounced residential earnings drag introduces greater near-term uncertainty. In probabilistic terms, JCI's combination of growth, visibility, and operational transformation presents the smoother risk-reward path, while CARR's upside may be more back-end loaded and contingent on a residential cycle that has yet to turn.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CARR is a Hold and JCI is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CARR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileJCI’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CARR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- JCI’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CARR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while JCI’s TA Score has 8 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CARR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- JCI’s TA Score: 8 bullish, 1 bearish.
Price Growth
CARR (@Building Products) experienced а +0.64% price change this week, while JCI (@Building Products) price change was +2.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was -3.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
CARR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
JCI is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (-3.16% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
| CARR | JCI | CARR / JCI | |
| Capitalization | 57.2B | 87.5B | 65% |
| EBITDA | 3.16B | 3.52B | 90% |
| Gain YTD | 31.854 | 20.426 | 156% |
| P/E Ratio | 45.92 | 43.84 | 105% |
| Revenue | 21.9B | 24.4B | 90% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 12.6B | 9.52B | 132% |
CARR | JCI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 48 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 74 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 66 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CARR's Valuation (25) in the null industry is in the same range as JCI (48) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that CARR’s stock grew similarly to JCI’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Profit vs Risk Rating (14) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (55) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's SMR Rating (40) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (74) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Price Growth Rating (24) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as CARR (50) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (66) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
| CARR | JCI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 64% | 7 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 62% |
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CARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CARR has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CARR jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARR | 100% | -0.39% | ||
| IR - CARR | 76% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| LII - CARR | 75% Closely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| TT - CARR | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| JCI - CARR | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.06% | ||
| BXC - CARR | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.76% | ||
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JCI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JCI has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JCI jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JCI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCI | 100% | +0.06% | ||
| IR - JCI | 77% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| TT - JCI | 68% Closely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| CARR - JCI | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.39% | ||
| SPXC - JCI | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.12% | ||
| LII - JCI | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.60% | ||
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