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CARR vs JCI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Carrier Global (CARR) vs. Johnson Controls International (JCI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CARR and JCI operate in the building products sector, with strong exposure to HVAC and data center cooling amid rising AI demand.
- CARR reported Q1 2026 earnings beat with revenue up 2.4% YoY to $5.34B, driven by over 500% surge in data center orders.
- JCI approaches Q2 2026 earnings with expectations of $6.1B revenue and $1.12 adjusted EPS, up 36.6% YoY, following consistent beats.
- YTD performance is comparable at ~22% for CARR and ~21% for JCI, but JCI shows stronger 1-year gains of ~63% vs. CARR's ~-9%.
- JCI has larger market cap (~$88B) than CARR (~$53B), with higher trailing P/E (48.6 vs. 42.8).
- Both face tariff pressures and margin challenges but benefit from data center growth and commercial HVAC demand.
Introduction
Carrier Global (CARR) and Johnson Controls International (JCI) are leading players in the building products and equipment sector, specializing in HVAC systems, climate control, and building technologies. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders eyeing industrials amid booming data center demand driven by AI infrastructure. Both companies have shown resilience in recent market activity, with YTD gains around 21-22%, but differ in scale, growth drivers, and valuation. Understanding their relative performance, recent catalysts, and sector positioning aids in assessing opportunities in this high-growth area.
CARR Overview and Recent Performance
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is a global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, focusing on HVAC, refrigeration, and related services across residential, commercial, and industrial segments. In recent weeks, CARR shares have exhibited volatility following its Q1 2026 earnings release, with the stock trading around $64, down from a 52-week high of $81.09 but up ~22% YTD. The company beat estimates with adjusted EPS of $0.57 (down 12% YoY) and revenue of $5.34B (up 2.4% YoY), fueled by a 500%+ surge in data center orders and 35% growth in commercial HVAC bookings. Sentiment has been buoyed by strong backlog covering 2026 data center sales, though offset by margin pressures from tariffs (~$400-450M impact) and organic sales dip of 1%. Analyst targets average $75.51, signaling potential upside.
JCI Overview and Recent Performance
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) delivers building efficiency solutions, including HVAC, fire/security systems, and smart building tech via its OpenBlue platform. Recently, JCI shares hovered near $145, nearing a 52-week high of $147.32, with ~21% YTD gains and robust 1-year performance of ~63%. Ahead of Q2 2026 earnings, expectations stand at $6.1B revenue (up 7.4% YoY) and $1.12 adjusted EPS (up 36.6% YoY), building on a history of beats. Key influences include data center cooling initiatives and record orders, though rising operating expenses pose margin risks. Market cap exceeds $88B, with trailing P/E at 48.6. Analyst targets average $144.86, reflecting steady sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CARR and JCI share HVAC and data center exposure but diverge in business models: CARR emphasizes pure-play climate solutions with higher focus on residential/commercial products (87% of sales), while JCI offers broader building tech including security and automation. Growth drivers align on AI-fueled cooling demand, with CARR posting 500% data center order growth vs. JCI's reference designs. Recent momentum favors JCI (1-month +8-9% vs. CARR's +15-18%, but stronger long-term). Risk factors include tariffs and China softness for both; CARR has lower beta (1.38) but higher forward P/E trade-off. JCI's larger scale ($24B TTM revenue vs. $22B) and ROE (12.6%) contrast CARR's focused efficiency. Sentiment tilts positive for both amid industrials strength.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors JCI due to its superior 1-year relative performance, larger market positioning, and consistent earnings beats ahead of Q2 results. Stronger long-term momentum, broader diversification, and record orders provide probabilistic edge over CARR's data center surge amid tariff headwinds, though both exhibit solid trend consistency in HVAC/data centers.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CARR is a StrongBuy and JCI is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CARR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileJCI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CARR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- JCI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CARR’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while JCI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CARR’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- JCI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CARR (@Building Products) experienced а -6.28% price change this week, while JCI (@Building Products) price change was -3.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was -1.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
CARR is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
JCI is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (-1.86% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
| CARR | JCI | CARR / JCI | |
| Capitalization | 51B | 82.6B | 62% |
| EBITDA | 3.16B | 3.52B | 90% |
| Gain YTD | 17.190 | 13.434 | 128% |
| P/E Ratio | 40.96 | 41.41 | 99% |
| Revenue | 21.9B | 24.4B | 90% |
| Total Cash | 1.37B | 698M | 196% |
| Total Debt | 12.6B | 9.52B | 132% |
CARR | JCI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 69 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 60 Fair valued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 71 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CARR's Valuation (60) in the null industry is in the same range as JCI (79) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that CARR’s stock grew similarly to JCI’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (59) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's SMR Rating (40) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as CARR (71) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as CARR (49) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (70) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
| CARR | JCI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 66% | 7 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 61% |
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JCI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JCI has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JCI jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JCI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCI | 100% | -1.38% | ||
| IR - JCI | 77% Closely correlated | -2.04% | ||
| TT - JCI | 64% Loosely correlated | -2.70% | ||
| CARR - JCI | 55% Loosely correlated | -4.76% | ||
| SPXC - JCI | 49% Loosely correlated | -2.33% | ||
| TREX - JCI | 44% Loosely correlated | -5.08% | ||
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