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CARR vs JCI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) vs. Johnson Controls International (JCI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CARR and JCI are leveraged to the same megatrend — rising data center and AI-driven cooling demand — but differ sharply in business mix and market positioning.
- Johnson Controls has shown stronger recent relative performance, with its shares trading near 52-week highs, while Carrier has been more volatile and pulled back materially from its mid-2026 peak.
- Carrier is a more focused, pure-play climate and energy business, whereas Johnson Controls spans broader building technology, services, and management systems.
- Both companies reported record backlogs and raised full-year guidance, but Carrier is contending with margin compression from input costs and tariffs.
- Johnson Controls has demonstrated clearer margin expansion and earnings conversion in recent quarters.
Introduction
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) and Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) are two of the largest publicly traded names in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and building technology. Both have become central to the artificial-intelligence infrastructure trade, as data centers require high-performance, energy-efficient cooling systems. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders seeking to understand how two companies exposed to the same demand cycle can diverge in momentum, profitability, and risk. By examining business models, recent financial results, and market sentiment, readers can better assess which of these industrial leaders currently offers the more compelling risk-reward profile.
CARR Overview and Recent Performance
Carrier Global Corporation is a pure-play provider of intelligent climate and energy solutions, focused on residential and commercial HVAC, heat pumps, transportation refrigeration, and data center cooling. Following a multi-year portfolio realignment that included the sale of its fire and security and commercial refrigeration businesses, plus the completed divestiture of its Riello burner-and-boiler unit, Carrier now concentrates almost entirely on climate and energy.
In recent market activity, CARR has been notably volatile. The stock climbed to a 52-week high near $76 in late June 2026 before retracing, reflecting a market that is weighing strong order growth against persistent profitability concerns. In its most recent quarterly report, Carrier beat revenue and earnings estimates and raised full-year guidance, with data center orders rising more than 300% and total backlog exceeding $8 billion. However, adjusted operating margin compressed roughly 190 basis points as higher input costs, tariffs, and an unfavorable product mix offset pricing gains. This tension between accelerating demand and margin pressure has shaped investor sentiment in recent weeks.
JCI Overview and Recent Performance
Johnson Controls International plc is a global building technology and solutions company headquartered in Cork, Ireland, with operations spanning applied HVAC, building management systems, controls, and lifecycle services. Its portfolio is more service- and systems-oriented than Carrier's, and it maintains a large field-service organization supporting commercial and institutional buildings.
In recent market activity, JCI has exhibited comparatively steadier momentum, trading near its 52-week high after a sustained uptrend. The company's recent fiscal quarters showed strong demand conversion: orders rose roughly 30% in one quarter and about 27% organically in the following period, driving backlog to a record of approximately $20–21 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew at a double-digit rate, and management expanded margins across all regions while raising full-year guidance. Data center activity, led by large-scale cooling projects in the Americas, has been the primary growth driver, supported by strength in pharmaceuticals, biologics, and advanced manufacturing end markets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is business focus. Carrier is a concentrated climate-and-energy pure play with meaningful residential and light commercial exposure, which makes it more sensitive to housing cycles and consumer-driven replacement demand. Johnson Controls is a broader building-technology platform with heavier weighting toward applied commercial HVAC, controls, and recurring service revenue, giving it a more diversified and, arguably, more resilient demand base.
On growth drivers, both benefit from data center cooling, but Johnson Controls has shown more consistent conversion of orders into margin expansion and earnings growth, while Carrier is still navigating input-cost and mix headwinds. On risk factors, Carrier carries greater leverage and earnings-conversion uncertainty, whereas Johnson Controls faces exposure to Europe and the Middle East, where recent results have been softer. In terms of market sentiment and relative performance, Johnson Controls has outperformed in 2026, with its shares near highs, while Carrier's pullback reflects a market still debating whether its growth can translate into durable profit expansion.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely currently favor JCI over CARR. Johnson Controls has demonstrated stronger trend consistency, clearer margin expansion, and steadier relative momentum, with its shares trading near highs and supported by record backlog. Carrier offers an arguably more aggressive data center growth story, but its margin compression and higher volatility introduce greater uncertainty around near-term earnings conversion. A probabilistic, trend-following framework would therefore tend to lean toward Johnson Controls for stability and momentum, while recognizing that Carrier remains a higher-beta candidate for investors specifically seeking concentrated climate-and-energy exposure.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CARR is a StrongBuy and JCI is a StrongBuy.
CARR's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CARR turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where CARR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CARR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 61 cases where CARR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +0.46% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CARR advanced for three days, in 208 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
CARR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CARR as a result. In 58 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The 50-day moving average for CARR moved below the 200-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CARR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for CARR entered a downward trend on September 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CARR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.462) is normal, around the industry mean (3.054). P/E Ratio (37.815) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.089) is also within normal values, averaging (1.212). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.076) is also within normal values, averaging (2.201).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CARR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
JCI in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
JCI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 40 of 52 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for JCI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JCI advanced for three days, in 220 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 189 of 300 cases where JCI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for JCI moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 66%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on JCI as a result. In 44 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for JCI turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JCI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
JCI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JCI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.659) is normal, around the industry mean (3.054). P/E Ratio (26.004) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.702) is also within normal values, averaging (1.212). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.470) is also within normal values, averaging (2.201).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CARR | JCI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 84 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 75 | 39 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 76 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CARR's Valuation (73) in the null industry is in the same range as JCI (80) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that CARR’s stock grew similarly to JCI’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for CARR (84) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew significantly faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's SMR Rating (39) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (75) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as CARR (50) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
CARR's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JCI (76) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that CARR’s stock grew somewhat faster than JCI’s over the last 12 months.
| CARR | JCI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 15 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 66% | 5 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CARR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while JCI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CARR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- JCI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CARR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while JCI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CARR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- JCI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CARR (@Building Products) experienced а -0.38% price change this week, while JCI (@Building Products) price change was -4.63% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was -0.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.23%.
Reported Earning Dates
CARR is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
JCI is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (-0.83% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
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JCI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JCI has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JCI jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JCI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCI | 100% | +1.89% | ||
| IR - JCI | 77% Closely correlated | -0.04% | ||
| TT - JCI | 75% Closely correlated | +1.34% | ||
| SPXC - JCI | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.28% | ||
| CARR - JCI | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.38% | ||
| AAON - JCI | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.18% | ||
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