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JCI vs TT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Johnson Controls International (JCI) vs. Trane Technologies (TT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- JCI (Johnson Controls International) has posted stronger recent momentum, gaining roughly 30% year to date versus about 19% for TT (Trane Technologies).
- Both companies are commercial HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) leaders, but JCI adds a substantial fire-and-security business, while TT is a more concentrated HVAC and transport-refrigeration pure play.
- Data center cooling demand is a shared growth catalyst, reflected in sharply rising backlogs at both firms.
- TT commands higher margins and returns on capital, while JCI carries a richer near-term earnings multiple as its business mix resets.
- Both stocks sit near or below recent highs after a period of consolidation, keeping relative strength and trend consistency central to the comparison.
Introduction
Johnson Controls International and Trane Technologies are two of the most closely watched names in commercial building climate and energy solutions, making them a natural head-to-head for investors seeking exposure to commercial HVAC, building automation, and the fast-growing data center cooling market. Although the two companies compete directly in applied HVAC, their business models differ meaningfully in breadth and focus, which can produce different risk and return profiles. This comparison examines recent market activity, business fundamentals, and relative positioning to help traders and investors understand where each stock stands today.
JCI Overview and Recent Performance
JCI, or Johnson Controls International, is a global provider of building products and technology solutions spanning commercial HVAC and refrigeration as well as fire, security, and building-automation systems. Following the 2025 sale of its residential and light-commercial HVAC business to Bosch, the company is now concentrated on commercial buildings, with commercial HVAC contributing roughly 60% of revenue and fire and security products and services accounting for most of the remainder.
In recent weeks, JCI shares have climbed toward the upper end of their 52-week range, supported by favorable analyst activity and an upbeat earnings report. The company beat consensus estimates for its most recent quarter, and management highlighted a sharp acceleration in orders and a growing backlog, driven in part by data center cooling demand. A fresh "Overweight" initiation from a major bank and maintained positive ratings from other institutions have reinforced the constructive tone. Broader momentum has also been notable: JCI has outperformed over recent weeks and months, reflecting improving sentiment around its refocused commercial strategy.
TT Overview and Recent Performance
TT, or Trane Technologies, designs, manufactures, and services heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and transport refrigeration systems under brands including Trane and Thermo King. Unlike its more diversified rival, TT operates as a more concentrated pure play on climate solutions, which has historically translated into stronger margins and higher returns on invested capital.
Over recent weeks, TT has recovered from a pullback after earlier reaching record highs. The shares remain elevated on a longer-term basis but have shown choppier near-term action than JCI, with a modestly negative three-month return offsetting gains. The fundamental backdrop remains robust: the company has reported record enterprise bookings and a backlog that has expanded sharply year over year. A series of recent product launches targeting AI data centers and liquid cooling underscore its push into high-growth segments, while an AI-focused acquisition has broadened its building-optimization capabilities.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is business-model breadth versus concentration. JCI offers a more diversified revenue mix through its fire-and-security operations, which can dampen cyclicality but also produce somewhat lower margins. TT, by comparison, is a more focused and operationally efficient business, reflected in stronger returns on equity and capital.
Momentum currently favors JCI, which has delivered stronger year-to-date and one-month gains and sits closer to its 52-week high. TT has been consolidating below its prior peak after a period of outperformance, even as its underlying bookings and backlog growth remain impressive. On valuation, JCI trades at a higher near-term earnings multiple partly because its post-divestiture earnings are still normalizing, while TT carries a premium multiple backed by superior margins. Data center cooling is a shared catalyst, but TT has been more explicit in productizing AI-specific solutions, whereas JCI benefits from broader commercial building exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean slightly toward JCI in the current environment, driven by stronger recent trend consistency, positive analyst revisions, and a refocused business that is compounding order and backlog growth. That said, TT remains the higher-quality operator with superior margins and returns on capital, and its deep backlog and AI-driven product cycle could reassert leadership if its consolidation resolves to the upside. The two profiles serve different priorities: momentum and diversification favor JCI, while operational quality and a pure-play growth thesis favor TT. Any single-stock conclusion should be treated as probabilistic rather than definitive.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JCI is a StrongBuy and TT is a Buy.
JCI in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
JCI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 40 of 52 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for JCI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JCI advanced for three days, in 220 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 189 of 300 cases where JCI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for JCI moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 66%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on JCI as a result. In 44 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for JCI turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JCI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
JCI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JCI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.659) is normal, around the industry mean (3.054). P/E Ratio (26.004) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.702) is also within normal values, averaging (1.212). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.470) is also within normal values, averaging (2.201).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
TT in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 14, 2026
TT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 25 of 36 cases where TT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
TT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +1.68% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TT advanced for three days, in 230 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 166 of 267 cases where TT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TT moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 50 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 50%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 62 cases where TT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TT as a result. In 52 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TT turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.866) is normal, around the industry mean (3.054). P/E Ratio (34.965) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.596) is also within normal values, averaging (1.212). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. TT's P/S Ratio (4.241) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.201).
JCI | TT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 39 | 28 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 76 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JCI's Valuation (80) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as TT (87) in the null industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew similarly to TT’s over the last 12 months.
TT's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the null industry is in the same range as JCI (12) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that TT’s stock grew similarly to JCI’s over the last 12 months.
TT's SMR Rating (28) in the null industry is in the same range as JCI (39) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that TT’s stock grew similarly to JCI’s over the last 12 months.
TT's Price Growth Rating (50) in the null industry is in the same range as JCI (50) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that TT’s stock grew similarly to JCI’s over the last 12 months.
TT's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JCI (76) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that TT’s stock grew somewhat faster than JCI’s over the last 12 months.
| JCI | TT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 62% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 55% | 6 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 7 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JCI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TT’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- JCI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JCI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JCI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
JCI (@Building Products) experienced а -4.63% price change this week, while TT (@Building Products) price change was -2.62% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was -1.69%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.19%.
Reported Earning Dates
JCI is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
TT is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (-1.69% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
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JCI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JCI has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JCI jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JCI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCI | 100% | +1.89% | ||
| IR - JCI | 77% Closely correlated | -0.04% | ||
| TT - JCI | 75% Closely correlated | +1.34% | ||
| SPXC - JCI | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.28% | ||
| CARR - JCI | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.38% | ||
| AAON - JCI | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.18% | ||
More | ||||
TT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TT has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TT jumps, then IR could also see price increases.