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CARR vs TT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Carrier Global (CARR) vs. Trane Technologies (TT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CARR delivered Q1 2026 revenue of $5.34 billion, up 2.4% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $0.57 beating estimates, driven by over 500% growth in data center orders.
- TT reported stronger Q1 revenue growth at 6% to $4.97 billion and raised full-year EPS guidance to $14.85 midpoint, backed by a record $10.7 billion backlog.
- Year-to-date, both stocks have gained around 22-25%, outperforming the S&P 500, with recent weeks showing solid monthly advances of 14-18% amid HVAC sector demand.
- TT exhibits superior recent momentum and backlog visibility, while CARR benefits from residential and data center exposure.
- Over the past year, TT has outperformed CARR with returns near 20-22% versus flat to negative.
Introduction
Carrier Global (CARR) and Trane Technologies (TT) are leading players in the heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVACR) sector, competing in intelligent climate solutions amid rising demand for energy-efficient systems and data center cooling. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business drivers, and market positioning, offering insights for investors tracking industrials and growth-oriented traders eyeing sector tailwinds like commercial HVAC and AI infrastructure. With both delivering earnings beats in recent quarters, understanding relative momentum and catalysts helps evaluate opportunities in this cyclical market.
CARR Overview and Recent Performance
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is a global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, spanning HVAC, refrigeration, and residential systems. In recent market activity, CARR shares have shown resilience, with year-to-date gains around 22-24% and monthly advances of 14-18%. The stock recently traded near $64-66, reflecting volatility but positive momentum post-Q1 2026 earnings.
Q1 results highlighted revenue of $5.34 billion, up 2.4% year-over-year and beating estimates by 6.8%, with adjusted EPS of $0.57 exceeding forecasts by 12.1%. Key drivers included over 500% growth in data center orders, fully backlogging expected 2026 sales, and 35% rise in commercial HVAC bookings. Organic sales dipped 1% due to residential softness, but foreign currency aided growth. Management reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance near $2.80, supported by pricing actions and data center momentum, though margins faced pressure from under-absorption and restructuring. Sentiment has improved on AI-related cooling demand, positioning CARR for potential upside in high-growth end-markets.
TT Overview and Recent Performance
Trane Technologies plc (TT) designs, manufactures, and services HVAC, transport refrigeration, and building efficiency solutions worldwide. Recent performance mirrors sector strength, with year-to-date returns of 22-25% and recent monthly gains of 14-15%, trading around $477-486 amid broader industrials rally.
In Q1 2026, TT posted revenue of $4.97 billion, up 6% year-over-year and topping estimates by 3.1%, with adjusted EPS of $2.63 beating consensus by 3.9%. Organic bookings surged 24%, building a record $10.7 billion backlog, up over 30% from year-end 2025, fueled by commercial HVAC and acquisitions like Stellar Energy for data center cooling. Management raised full-year revenue growth outlook to 9.5% reported (7% organic) and adjusted EPS to $14.75-$14.95. Despite operating margin contraction to 15.6% from inflation, strong visibility and services growth (double-digit) bolster sentiment, with data center and decarbonization trends enhancing positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CARR and TT operate in HVACR with sector exposure to commercial, residential, and emerging data centers, but TT's broader industrial footprint yields higher revenue scale ($21B+ TTM vs. CARR's ~$22B projected) and growth (recent quarterly 6% vs. 2.4%). Growth drivers diverge: CARR leans on residential aftermarket and transport refrigeration, while TT emphasizes services (double-digit growth) and acquisitions enhancing data center capabilities.
Recent momentum favors TT with sharper YTD outperformance and backlog strength, versus CARR's data center surge offsetting residential weakness. Risk factors include cyclical end-markets, input cost inflation, and restructuring for both, though TT's larger size ($107B market cap vs. $54B) offers stability at higher beta. Market sentiment tilts to TT on guidance raises, while CARR trades at a relative discount with steady dividends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor TT over CARR, citing superior trend consistency, backlog-driven visibility, and relative YTD strength amid commercial HVAC and data center catalysts. TT's raised guidance signals higher near-term outperformance probability, though CARR holds appeal for value plays with data center upside.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CARR is a Hold and TT is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CARR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileTT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CARR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CARR’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TT’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CARR’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CARR (@Building Products) experienced а +2.15% price change this week, while TT (@Building Products) price change was -2.05% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was +5.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.77%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.90%.
Reported Earning Dates
CARR is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
TT is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (+5.31% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
| CARR | TT | CARR / TT | |
| Capitalization | 54.5B | 103B | 53% |
| EBITDA | 3.16B | 4.26B | 74% |
| Gain YTD | 25.049 | 20.449 | 122% |
| P/E Ratio | 43.71 | 35.73 | 122% |
| Revenue | 21.9B | 21.6B | 101% |
| Total Cash | 1.37B | 1.07B | 128% |
| Total Debt | 12.6B | 4.62B | 273% |
CARR | TT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 71 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CARR's Valuation (66) in the null industry is in the same range as TT (84). This means that CARR’s stock grew similarly to TT’s over the last 12 months.
TT's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (55). This means that TT’s stock grew somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
TT's SMR Rating (26) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (71). This means that TT’s stock grew somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
TT's Price Growth Rating (39) in the null industry is in the same range as CARR (51). This means that TT’s stock grew similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
TT's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the null industry is in the same range as CARR (63). This means that TT’s stock grew similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
| CARR | TT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 66% | 19 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 5 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 2 days ago 64% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| VHT | 272.93 | 4.98 | +1.86% |
| Vanguard Health Care ETF | |||
| XHYT | 33.76 | -0.06 | -0.16% |
| BondBloxx US HY Telecm Md Tech Sctr ETF | |||
| IBGA | 24.13 | -0.15 | -0.60% |
| iShares iBonds Dec 2044 Term Trsy ETF | |||
| KSA | 38.75 | -0.40 | -1.02% |
| iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF | |||
| GSEE | 67.48 | -2.34 | -3.35% |
| Goldman Sachs MarketBeta Emer Mkt Eq ETF | |||
CARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CARR has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CARR jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARR | 100% | -0.49% | ||
| IR - CARR | 76% Closely correlated | -1.99% | ||
| LII - CARR | 74% Closely correlated | -2.48% | ||
| TT - CARR | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| BXC - CARR | 58% Loosely correlated | -3.58% | ||
| JCI - CARR | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.52% | ||
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