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CG vs KKR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Carlyle Group (CG) vs. KKR & Co. (KKR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CG and KKR are leading alternative asset managers, but they operate at different scales: KKR manages roughly $758 billion in assets under management (AUM), versus approximately $485 billion for Carlyle.
- KKR is more diversified across private equity, credit, real assets, insurance, and strategic holdings, while CG is more concentrated in private equity and global credit.
- Both stocks have pulled back sharply from 52-week highs in recent weeks, reflecting a broad repricing of alternative asset managers.
- KKR posted record fee-related earnings with a roughly 70% margin, while CG delivered record fee-related earnings of $358 million and an earnings beat.
- Near-term headwinds center on monetization timing and market volatility, which have softened forward earnings visibility for both firms.
Introduction
Alternative asset managers have become a focal point for investors seeking exposure to private markets, credit, and infrastructure. This stock comparison evaluates two of the industry's most recognizable names: The Carlyle Group and KKR & Co. Although both firms compete for institutional and high-net-worth capital, their business mixes, scale, and recent relative performance differ meaningfully. Traders and long-term investors alike may find this comparison useful when assessing market positioning, growth drivers, and how each stock has behaved under recent market stress. Understanding these contrasts can help clarify which profile better aligns with a given strategy or risk tolerance.
CG Overview and Recent Performance
The Carlyle Group is a global investment firm operating across three core segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Investment Solutions (its AlpInvest platform). As of mid-2026, the firm reported total AUM of approximately $485 billion, including roughly $334 billion in fee-earning AUM. This concentration in private equity and credit means CG performance is closely tied to deal activity, fundraising cycles, and realization (exit) volumes.
In recent market activity, CG shares have traded well below their 52-week high, with the stock down meaningfully on a year-to-date basis. The decline reflects a broader repricing across the alternative asset management sector rather than a company-specific deterioration. Notably, Carlyle's most recent quarterly results were solid: adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beat estimates, and fee-related earnings reached a record, supported by transaction fees that roughly doubled year over year. Analysts have remained broadly constructive, with at least one major firm initiating coverage with an Overweight rating in recent weeks. Still, the stock's pullback suggests the market is weighing near-term earnings visibility against a longer-term fundraising story management has described as a "super cycle."
KKR Overview and Recent Performance
KKR & Co. is a larger, more diversified alternative asset manager with a platform spanning private equity, real assets, credit and liquid strategies, insurance, and strategic holdings. The firm reported total AUM of roughly $758 billion and fee-paying AUM near $615 billion in its most recent disclosures. Its recent acquisition of Arctos Partners added a sports-investing and general partner (GP) solutions franchise, reinforcing diversification across asset classes.
On the earnings front, KKR has reported record fee-related earnings with a margin around 70%, and management noted that about 85% of segment earnings now come from recurring sources such as fees, insurance, and strategic holdings income. Fundraising has also been strong, with the firm exceeding its multi-year capital-raising target ahead of schedule. However, KKR shares have declined sharply from their 52-week high in recent months, and the company removed its prior full-year adjusted net income (ANI) target, citing reduced visibility on monetization timing. This tension between strong underlying fundamentals and near-term guidance uncertainty has defined the stock's recent performance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is scale and diversification. KKR manages substantially more capital and has built out recurring earnings through insurance and strategic holdings, which tends to smooth results. CG remains more levered to traditional private equity and credit cycles, making its earnings more sensitive to realization activity and transaction fees.
On recent momentum, both have faced selling pressure, though CG has experienced a steeper one-month drawdown from its prior levels. In terms of profitability, KKR currently shows a higher fee-related earnings margin, while CG carries a notably higher dividend yield, which may appeal to income-oriented investors. Risk factors differ as well: KKR faces questions about monetization timing after withdrawing formal guidance, whereas CG faces concentration risk tied to fewer, larger business segments. Both are exposed to the same macro backdrop of market volatility and shifting investor appetite for private markets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings durability, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward KKR at present. The firm's larger scale, more diversified revenue mix, record fee-related earnings, and higher proportion of recurring income suggest a more stable earnings foundation, even as both stocks trade below their highs. That said, the AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive: CG offers a higher yield and a potentially sharper recovery trajectory if private equity realizations reaccelerate. Traders should weigh KKR's relative stability against CG's cyclical upside when forming their own view.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CG is a StrongBuy and KKR is a StrongBuy.
CG's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CG turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where CG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CG as a result. In 46 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +2.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CG advanced for three days, in 234 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
CG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for CG entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.634) is normal, around the industry mean (2.383). P/E Ratio (38.366) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.559). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.646) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.356) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for KKR turns positive, indicating new upward trend
KKR saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 70 of the 89 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KKR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KKR just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where KKR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +4.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KKR advanced for three days, in 234 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
KKR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for KKR moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KKR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for KKR entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. KKR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KKR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.885) is normal, around the industry mean (2.383). P/E Ratio (27.349) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.559). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.398) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.382) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CG | KKR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 9 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 72 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 71 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 90 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KKR's Valuation (84) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (88). This means that KKR’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
KKR's Profit vs Risk Rating (72) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (100). This means that KKR’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's SMR Rating (59) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as KKR (67). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to KKR’s over the last 12 months.
KKR's Price Growth Rating (71) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (73). This means that KKR’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Investment Managers industry is significantly better than the same rating for KKR (90). This means that CG’s stock grew significantly faster than KKR’s over the last 12 months.
| CG | KKR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 72% | 14 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while KKR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KKR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KKR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- KKR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CG (@Investment Managers) experienced а +5.99% price change this week, while KKR (@Investment Managers) price change was +5.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
CG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
KKR is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+0.37% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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CG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CG has been closely correlated with TPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CG jumps, then TPG could also see price increases.