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BX vs CG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Blackstone (BX) vs. The Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap: BX is the world's largest alternative asset manager with roughly $1.3 trillion in assets under management (AUM), versus about $475 billion for CG.
- Recent momentum diverged: BX posted double-digit distributable-earnings growth, while CG swung to a quarterly net loss driven by investment markdowns.
- Different growth engines: BX is leaning into AI infrastructure and private credit; CG is emphasizing its AlpInvest secondaries platform and 2028 targets.
- Both stocks pulled back in 2026 amid private-credit concerns and market volatility, reshaping relative performance.
- Sentiment contrast: BX trades as a diversified, scale-driven franchise, while CG carries a turnaround-and-execution narrative.
Introduction
Blackstone (BX) and The Carlyle Group (CG) are two of the most recognized names in alternative asset management, yet they sit at different points on the industry's scale and strategy spectrum. Both generate revenue from management fees and performance-related income across private equity, credit, and other strategies, making this a natural stock comparison for investors seeking exposure to private markets. The comparison is especially relevant for traders and long-term investors weighing a diversified, institutional-scale platform against a smaller, restructuring-focused firm. This article examines each company's recent performance, business model, and market positioning to help readers assess their relative performance in the current environment.
BX Overview and Recent Performance
BX is the world's largest alternative asset manager, operating across private equity, real estate, credit and insurance, and hedge fund solutions. In recent market activity, the firm has demonstrated resilience in fundraising, reporting roughly $68.5 billion of inflows in its most recent quarter and crossing $1.3 trillion in total AUM, with fee-earning AUM of about $937.6 billion. Distributable earnings rose approximately 25% year over year, supported by higher management and advisory fees and a sharp increase in performance allocations.
Sentiment around BX has been shaped by two competing forces. On one side, the firm has deepened its exposure to AI infrastructure, including a reported financing role tied to AI-related computing demand, and management has highlighted broad appreciation across flagship strategies. On the other side, concerns around private-credit quality and redemption activity in certain wealth-focused funds have tempered enthusiasm, and the stock has declined materially from its levels earlier in the year. Analysts remain broadly constructive but have trimmed price targets in response to fee and flow headwinds.
CG Overview and Recent Performance
CG is a global investment firm headquartered in Washington, D.C., deploying private capital across three segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest. As of its latest reporting, the firm managed approximately $475 billion in AUM. In recent weeks, CG's results have been more volatile: it posted a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net loss in its most recent quarter, driven by a large investment loss, while revenue declined sharply year over year.
Despite the headline loss, management has emphasized operational momentum, including record U.S. buyout realizations and strong fundraising within AlpInvest, which reached a record level of AUM. Fee-related earnings (FRE) held relatively steady, and the firm entered the period with a record level of "dry powder," or uninvested capital. CG's stock has also retreated during 2026, and analyst sentiment reflects a mixed view: several firms have initiated or maintained constructive ratings, while others note margin and realization "lumpiness" as persistent risks as the firm works toward its stated 2028 financial targets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between BX and CG is scale and diversification. BX's larger, multi-asset platform spans real estate, credit, infrastructure, and private equity, generating steadier fee revenue and significant inflows even in turbulent periods. CG's narrower footprint is more concentrated in private equity and credit, with AlpInvest providing a growing secondaries and co-investment engine.
Growth drivers also differ. BX is increasingly associated with AI infrastructure financing and private-wealth distribution, while CG's narrative centers on AlpInvest expansion, wealth-channel fundraising, and execution toward multi-year earnings targets. On recent momentum, BX has shown more consistency in distributable earnings, whereas CG's results have been lumpier, with investment markdowns creating headline volatility.
Risk profiles reflect these differences. BX faces scrutiny around private-credit exposure and redemptions in certain retail-oriented funds; CG faces margin compression, realization timing, and a heavier reliance on performance income. In terms of market sentiment, both names have experienced 2026 drawdowns, but BX's scale and fee durability have generally supported a steadier, higher-confidence profile among analysts relative to CG's execution-dependent outlook.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor BX in the current environment. The firm's larger and more diversified platform, consistent fundraising, positive appreciation across flagship strategies, and steadier distributable-earnings growth suggest a more consistent trend and stronger relative positioning than CG, whose recent results have been shaped by investment markdowns and more variable realizations. While CG's turnaround and AlpInvest momentum could narrow the gap over time, BX's scale and fee durability currently present a more stable profile. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current, observable conditions rather than a definitive prediction of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BX is a StrongBuy and CG is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for BX turns positive, indicating new upward trend
BX saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 78 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 78 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BX just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where BX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +3.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BX advanced for three days, in 199 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for BX moved below the 200-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
BX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BX entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BX's P/B Ratio (9.868) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.410). P/E Ratio (26.512) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.016). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.048) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.148) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
CG's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for CG moved out of oversold territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CG as a result. In 54 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CG just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where CG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +5.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CG advanced for three days, in 231 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
CG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CG entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.731) is normal, around the industry mean (2.410). P/E Ratio (39.782) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.016). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.646) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.356) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
BX | CG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 98 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CG's Valuation (88) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as BX (91). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to BX’s over the last 12 months.
BX's Profit vs Risk Rating (79) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (98). This means that BX’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
BX's SMR Rating (32) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (59). This means that BX’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
BX's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as CG (61). This means that BX’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Investment Managers industry is significantly better than the same rating for BX (83). This means that CG’s stock grew significantly faster than BX’s over the last 12 months.
| BX | CG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 86% | 4 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | 4 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 69% | 20 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BX’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while CG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BX (@Investment Managers) experienced а +0.46% price change this week, while CG (@Investment Managers) price change was +4.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
BX is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
CG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+0.34% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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BX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BX has been closely correlated with KKR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BX jumps, then KKR could also see price increases.
CG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CG has been closely correlated with TPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CG jumps, then TPG could also see price increases.