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CGAU vs WPM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Centerra Gold (CGAU) vs. Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CGAU is a traditional gold and copper miner, while WPM is a precious metals streaming and royalty company that does not operate mines.
- Both stocks have benefited from a historic rally in gold and silver prices, but their business models respond to rising metals prices in different ways.
- Wheaton recently completed the largest transaction in its history, a $4.3 billion silver stream on BHP's Antamina mine, while Centerra is advancing its own organic growth pipeline.
- Centerra has delivered a larger share-price gain over the past year, though analysts have issued a more mixed set of ratings on the stock.
- Wheaton carries a streaming model's higher multiple and lower operational risk, while Centerra offers more direct leverage to production and project execution.
Introduction
Investors evaluating precious metals exposure often face a choice between owning a miner that operates mines and a streaming company that finances them. This stock comparison examines CGAU (Centerra Gold Inc.) and WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.) to help traders and investors understand how their relative performance and market positioning differ in the current environment. Both names have surged amid rising gold and silver prices, yet they represent fundamentally distinct risk profiles. This analysis is relevant for investors weighing direct commodity leverage against a diversified, capital-light royalty model, as well as for those tracking momentum and trend signals in the precious metals sector.
CGAU Overview and Recent Performance
CGAU, or Centerra Gold Inc., is a Toronto-based mining company that produces gold, copper, and molybdenum. Its principal operating assets are the Mount Milligan mine in Canada and the Öksüt mine in Turkey. In recent weeks and quarters, the company has delivered sharply improved financial results, driven by higher realized metal prices and stronger operational execution. Recent reporting showed quarterly revenue rising more than 60% year over year, with net earnings and free cash flow expanding considerably as the company grew its cash balance above $500 million.
Centerra's share price has climbed roughly 150% over the past year, outpacing the broader market. Sentiment has been supported by a robust growth pipeline that includes the Kemess and Goldfield projects, a planned restart of the Thompson Creek mine, and an extension of Mount Milligan's mine life. At the same time, analyst views have been mixed, with some firms maintaining Buy ratings while others hold more cautious positions, and recent insider selling has added a note of caution to an otherwise strong rally.
WPM Overview and Recent Performance
WPM, or Wheaton Precious Metals Corp., is a Vancouver-based streaming and royalty company. Rather than operating mines itself, Wheaton provides upfront capital to mining partners in exchange for the right to purchase future production at fixed, low per-ounce prices, then sells that metal at prevailing market rates. This model generates high margins without direct exposure to mining operating costs.
In recent quarters, Wheaton posted record results, with revenue roughly doubling year over year and net earnings more than doubling as gold and silver prices surged. The company completed its largest transaction ever, a $4.3 billion silver stream agreement with BHP tied to the Antamina mine in Peru, and added new streams and royalties in Australia and Canada. Wheaton's shares have risen more than 50% over the past year, and the company raised its quarterly dividend by 18%, reflecting management's confidence in sustained cash flow.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is their business model. CGAU is an operator that bears the full range of mining risks, including cost inflation, permitting, and geopolitical exposure in Turkey, but it also captures the full upside of its own production growth. WPM is a financier that avoids most operational risk, diversifies across dozens of assets and jurisdictions, and earns a highly scalable margin on rising metal prices, though it trades at a correspondingly higher valuation multiple.
On growth drivers, Centerra is focused on self-funded project development and mine-life extensions, while Wheaton is expanding through acquisitions of streams and royalties, such as the Antamina deal. Recent momentum has favored Centerra in percentage terms, yet Wheaton's record earnings and cash flow underscore the leverage of its streaming structure. Key risk factors differ as well: Centerra faces execution and cost risk at its mines, whereas Wheaton is exposed to counterparty performance, competition for new deals, and concentration in a handful of large assets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative stability, and positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely view WPM as the more favorable candidate in the current environment. Wheaton's diversified, capital-light model, record cash flow, and reduced operational risk tend to produce more stable trend signals, while its recent strategic transactions provide durable catalysts. CGAU has demonstrated stronger recent share-price momentum and offers more direct leverage to metal prices, but its heavier exposure to operational execution and mixed analyst sentiment introduces greater variability. This assessment reflects probabilistic, model-based analysis rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CGAU is a Hold and WPM is a Hold.
CGAU in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026
CGAU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 36 cases where CGAU's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 65 cases where CGAU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +4.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CGAU advanced for three days, in 238 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CGAU as a result. In 64 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CGAU turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 65%.
CGAU moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CGAU crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CGAU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for CGAU entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 36 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.823) is normal, around the industry mean (1.817). P/E Ratio (6.454) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-14.125). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.358) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.544) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CGAU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
WPM's RSI Indicator slumps oversold zone
The RSI Indicator for WPM moved into overbought territory on October 30, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +3.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WPM advanced for three days, in 249 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
WPM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on WPM as a result. In 48 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
WPM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WPM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WPM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for WPM entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WPM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.464) is normal, around the industry mean (1.817). P/E Ratio (25.815) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-14.125). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.400) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.358) among similar stocks. WPM's P/S Ratio (21.053) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.321).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CGAU | WPM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 36 Fair valued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CGAU's Valuation (36) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WPM (77) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew somewhat faster than WPM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the null industry is in the same range as WPM (34) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to WPM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's SMR Rating (31) in the null industry is in the same range as WPM (41) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to WPM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Price Growth Rating (40) in the null industry is in the same range as WPM (49) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to WPM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's P/E Growth Rating (53) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WPM (89) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew somewhat faster than WPM’s over the last 12 months.
| CGAU | WPM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CGAU’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while WPM’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CGAU’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WPM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CGAU’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WPM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CGAU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- WPM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CGAU (@Precious Metals) experienced а -0.25% price change this week, while WPM (@Precious Metals) price change was -3.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -4.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
CGAU is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
WPM is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-4.21% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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CGAU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CGAU has been closely correlated with WPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CGAU jumps, then WPM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CGAU | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGAU | 100% | -1.13% | ||
| WPM - CGAU | 89% Closely correlated | -5.42% | ||
| AEM - CGAU | 89% Closely correlated | -5.99% | ||
| IAG - CGAU | 88% Closely correlated | -7.71% | ||
| PAAS - CGAU | 86% Closely correlated | -6.80% | ||
| ARIS - CGAU | 86% Closely correlated | -9.13% | ||
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