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CGAU vs PAAS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) vs. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CGAU is a gold-and-copper producer with a debt-free balance sheet and roughly $450 million-plus in cash, while PAAS is one of the world's largest primary silver miners with diversified precious-metals output across the Americas.
- CGAU has delivered strong relative performance over the past year, supported by higher gold prices and operational execution, whereas PAAS has pulled back in recent weeks as silver prices softened.
- PAAS announced an expanded shareholder-return framework targeting up to $1 billion in 2026 distributions, while CGAU has expanded its buyback program and maintained a modest quarterly dividend.
- The two names differ meaningfully in commodity mix: CGAU leans on gold and copper, while PAAS carries greater leverage to silver prices.
- Analyst sentiment is broadly constructive on both, but recent rating and price-target activity has diverged, reflecting different near-term momentum and commodity exposures.
Introduction
Investors tracking the precious-metals sector often weigh gold-focused producers against silver-focused miners, and that is precisely the contrast between Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) and Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS). Although both generate revenue from precious metals, they operate with different commodity mixes, cost profiles, geographic footprints, and growth catalysts. This stock comparison examines recent performance, key developments, and market positioning to help traders and investors understand how the two names stack up in the current environment. It is especially relevant for those weighing a gold-and-copper producer against a diversified silver major amid shifting metals prices.
CGAU Overview and Recent Performance
Centerra Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold and copper mining company whose core operations include the Mount Milligan mine in British Columbia and the Öksüt mine in Turkey. The company has been repositioning toward North American growth, advancing projects such as Thompson Creek, Goldfield, and Kemess while reducing its reliance on Turkish output. A notable feature of CGAU is its balance-sheet strength: the company has reported zero long-term debt and a growing cash position.
In recent market activity, CGAU shares have risen sharply over the past year, with some analyses citing gains of roughly 150% or more, outpacing the broader S&P 500 by a wide margin. The advance has been driven by elevated gold prices, stronger production and free cash flow, and a series of analyst upgrades. Recent results showed rising gold output, robust realized metal prices, and increased full-year production guidance, while the company has also expanded its share-buyback program. Sentiment remains broadly positive, though the stock's substantial run-up has prompted some profit-taking and valuation debates.
PAAS Overview and Recent Performance
Pan American Silver Corp. is a leading primary silver producer with a diversified portfolio of mines across Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, and Canada, along with meaningful gold and base-metals by-product output. The company has scaled up through acquisitions and development projects, positioning itself as one of the largest silver miners globally.
PAAS delivered strong recent financial results, reporting robust quarterly revenue and net income alongside a sharp reduction in all-in sustaining costs (AISC), a measure of the full cost of producing each ounce of metal. Management also unveiled a shareholder-return framework targeting up to $1 billion in 2026 distributions through dividends and buybacks. However, recent weeks have brought a pullback in the share price, coinciding with a decline in silver prices from earlier highs. This price weakness prompted at least one brokerage to trim its price target, reflecting the stock's sensitivity to silver market swings even as the longer-term consensus rating remains favorable.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is commodity exposure. CGAU derives value primarily from gold and copper, giving it a diversified base-metals revenue stream and some insulation from single-metal volatility. PAAS, by comparison, is more heavily leveraged to silver, which tends to exhibit higher volatility than gold, amplifying both upside and downside moves.
Balance-sheet positioning also differs. CGAU stands out for its debt-free status and large cash reserves, which support self-funded growth and shareholder returns. PAAS holds substantial liquidity and strong free cash flow, but its capital program—including major development projects—carries larger reinvestment requirements.
On momentum, CGAU has maintained stronger recent trend consistency amid firm gold prices, while PAAS has experienced a sharper recent correction tied to silver's decline. Risk profiles vary as well: CGAU carries geopolitical exposure through its Turkish asset, whereas PAAS faces commodity-price sensitivity concentrated in silver. Both maintain diversified multi-jurisdiction operations and benefit from disciplined cost management.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CGAU in the current environment. The company combines a debt-free balance sheet, a diversified gold-and-copper revenue base, and sustained upward momentum backed by strong cash generation. PAAS offers compelling scale, improving cost metrics, and a sizable shareholder-return program, but its heavier silver leverage introduces greater near-term volatility that has weighed on recent performance. This view is probabilistic rather than definitive: shifts in gold, silver, and copper prices, or changes in company-specific catalysts, could alter the relative picture at any time.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CGAU is a StrongBuy and PAAS is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for CGAU turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CGAU saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 70 of the 85 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CGAU just turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where CGAU's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +0.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CGAU advanced for three days, in 239 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 44 of 64 cases where CGAU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
CGAU moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CGAU crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CGAU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for CGAU entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.989) is normal, around the industry mean (2.031). P/E Ratio (7.042) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.536). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.341) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.544) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CGAU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PAAS sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On October 16, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for PAAS moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 49 of the 58 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +1.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAAS advanced for three days, in 242 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
PAAS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
PAAS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PAAS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAAS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for PAAS entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.460) is normal, around the industry mean (2.031). P/E Ratio (12.914) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.536). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.341) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.533) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PAAS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CGAU | PAAS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 37 Fair valued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 52 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CGAU's Valuation (37) in the null industry is in the same range as PAAS (47) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAAS (52) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's SMR Rating (31) in the null industry is in the same range as PAAS (43) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Price Growth Rating (38) in the null industry is in the same range as PAAS (60) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
PAAS's P/E Growth Rating (89) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as CGAU (96) in the null industry. This means that PAAS’s stock grew similarly to CGAU’s over the last 12 months.
| CGAU | PAAS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CGAU’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PAAS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CGAU’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PAAS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CGAU’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAAS’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CGAU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PAAS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CGAU (@Precious Metals) experienced а +4.60% price change this week, while PAAS (@Precious Metals) price change was +3.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -5.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -20.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
CGAU is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
PAAS is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-5.98% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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