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CMC vs RS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. Reliance, Inc. (RS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CMC is a vertically integrated steel producer and manufacturer, while RS operates as a diversified metals service center and distributor — two distinct business models within the same sector.
- Both companies have posted sharply higher year-over-year earnings, driven by firmer steel and metal pricing and strong demand.
- CMC has recently expanded into precast concrete through acquisitions, while RS has benefited from record shipment volumes and multi-year government contracts.
- Relative performance has been strong for both, but RS has outpaced CMC over the past year.
- Analyst sentiment differs: CMC has drawn recent upgrades, while RS carries a broadly neutral-to-hold consensus.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the metals and materials space frequently weigh producers against distributors, and few pairings illustrate that contrast as cleanly as CMC and RS. Commercial Metals Company manufactures long steel products and construction solutions, while Reliance, Inc. is the largest North American metals service center, distributing and processing a wide range of metals. Both companies are cyclical and sensitive to metal prices, yet their market positioning, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and long-term investors seeking to understand relative performance, sector exposure, and which business model may be better suited to the current market environment.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company (CMC), headquartered in Irving, Texas, manufactures and recycles steel, producing long products such as rebar, merchant bar, and wire rod, alongside a growing Construction Solutions Group. The company has also expanded into precast concrete, closing the acquisitions of Concrete Pipe and Precast (CP&P) and Foley Products in December 2025.
Recent market activity has reflected improving fundamentals. In its fiscal third quarter of 2026, CMC reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.73, up sharply from $0.70 a year earlier, with net revenues rising about 23% to $2.48 billion. Core EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) surged as metal margins expanded and the precast platform contributed to results. Over the past year, the stock has gained roughly 49%, supported by firmer steel pricing, efficiency gains from its Transform, Advance, Grow (TAG) program, and resilient construction demand tied to data centers, energy, and public works. In May 2026, UBS upgraded the shares to Buy, citing easing import pressure and an attractive entry point after earlier underperformance.
RS Overview and Recent Performance
Reliance, Inc. (RS), based in Phoenix, Arizona, is a diversified metal solutions provider and the largest metals service center operator in North America. Rather than producing steel, the company purchases, processes, and distributes carbon steel, aluminum, stainless steel, and specialty metals across sectors including manufacturing, construction, aerospace, energy, and semiconductor fabrication.
Recent performance has been notably strong. In the second quarter of 2026, RS reported non-GAAP diluted EPS of $6.27, up 42% year over year, while sales grew about 27% to $4.63 billion. The company achieved record tons sold and benefited from firmer average selling prices. A key catalyst has been multi-year government contracts secured through its AMI Metals subsidiary, including border wall and Joint Strike Fighter work with potential revenue of up to roughly $3 billion. RS has also raised its annualized dividend to $5.00 per share and continues an active share-repurchase program. The stock has gained more than 40% over the past year, though analyst ratings remain predominantly Hold with an average price target near $400.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental distinction is the business model. CMC is an asset-heavy producer whose profitability depends heavily on the spread between steel selling prices and scrap costs, giving it strong operating leverage when metal prices rise. RS, by contrast, is an asset-light distributor whose margins are shaped more by inventory management, processing fees, and the mix of products it handles across a broader array of end markets.
Growth drivers also diverge. CMC is pursuing transformation through its TAG efficiency program and precast acquisitions, deepening its exposure to construction and infrastructure. RS is leveraging scale, domestic mill relationships, and large government contracts to expand volumes and pricing. On risk, CMC carries geographic exposure through its Poland-based Europe Steel Group and sensitivity to import flows and the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while RS faces elevated LIFO (last-in, first-out) accounting expenses and tariff-driven margin distortions, particularly on aluminum under Section 232 tariffs. In terms of momentum, RS has shown stronger recent relative performance, while CMC has attracted more constructive analyst revisions in recent weeks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt in favor of RS on the strength of more consistent momentum, record shipment volumes, improving pricing, and the stability provided by multi-year government contracts and a diversified end-market base. That said, CMC presents a compelling counter-case through expanding margins, positive estimate revisions, and an active transformation story. A probabilistic framework suggests RS currently holds the edge in trend consistency and catalysts, while CMC may offer greater potential upside if steel-price recovery continues and precast integration delivers on synergy targets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a Buy and RS is a StrongBuy.
CMC sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On October 29, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for CMC moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 44 of the 52 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMC as a result. In 62 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMC just turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
CMC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMC advanced for three days, in 214 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
CMC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.604) is normal, around the industry mean (2.950). P/E Ratio (12.303) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.336). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.320) is also within normal values, averaging (0.744). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.028) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.840) is also within normal values, averaging (5901.087).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
RS's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RS turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where RS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RS as a result. In 60 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
RS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for RS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +1.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RS advanced for three days, in 235 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 250 of 377 cases where RS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
RS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 61 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.033) is normal, around the industry mean (2.199). P/E Ratio (25.387) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.655). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.150) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.301) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CMC | RS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 61 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 64 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMC's Valuation (53) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as RS (61) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to RS’s over the last 12 months.
RS's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (30) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that RS’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's SMR Rating (59) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as RS (64) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to RS’s over the last 12 months.
RS's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (57) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that RS’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
RS's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Steel industry is significantly better than the same rating for CMC (95) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that RS’s stock grew significantly faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CMC | RS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 64% | 8 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while RS’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RS’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- RS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +3.32% price change this week, while RS (@Steel) price change was +5.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was +1.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.21%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +1.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Jan 11, 2027.
RS is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (+1.42% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (+1.44% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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CMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMC has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMC jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC | 100% | +2.40% | ||
| STLD - CMC | 73% Closely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| RS - CMC | 68% Closely correlated | +0.58% | ||
| NUE - CMC | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.29% | ||
| MTUS - CMC | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.18% | ||
| WS - CMC | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.61% | ||
More | ||||
RS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RS has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RS jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.