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CME vs TW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CME Group (CME) vs. Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CME is a global derivatives-exchange leader with a market capitalization near $105 billion, driven by interest-rate, equity, and commodity futures volume.
- TW is a fast-growing electronic trading-platform operator focused on fixed income, rates, and credit, with a market capitalization near $24 billion.
- Tradeweb has delivered notably faster revenue growth, while CME offers stronger scale, higher margins, and a more established dividend.
- Analyst consensus leans Buy for TW and Hold for CME, reflecting differing growth-versus-stability profiles.
- Both stocks have shown positive momentum in recent weeks, with TW posting the sharper short-term rebound and CME trading above key moving averages.
Introduction
Investors evaluating market-infrastructure companies often weigh scale and stability against growth and innovation. CME and TW represent two distinct sides of this trade-off. CME Group operates the world's largest derivatives marketplace, while Tradeweb Markets provides electronic trading networks across global fixed-income and money-market products. Comparing the two is relevant for traders and investors seeking exposure to capital-markets volumes, interest-rate dynamics, and financial technology. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, market positioning, and recent developments to clarify how each might fit within a diversified portfolio in the current environment.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group operates global derivatives exchanges offering futures and options across interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), energy, agriculture, and metals, alongside a central clearinghouse that manages counterparty risk. The company benefits from a scalable electronic model and recurring market-data revenue. In recent weeks, CME shares have traded above their 50-day moving average, reflecting renewed upward momentum after a mid-year pullback. Average daily volume (ADV) rose roughly 10% year over year in the first half of 2026, while open interest increased about 8% to 127 million contracts. Market-data and information-services revenue climbed approximately 20% to a record in the most recent quarter, and the company continues to expand into areas such as cryptocurrency trading and extended gold hours. With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 23 and a low beta of roughly 0.2, CME is positioned as a comparatively defensive, dividend-paying holding within the capital-markets sector.
TW Overview and Recent Performance
Tradeweb Markets operates electronic marketplaces for trading rates, credit, equities, money markets, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), connecting institutional, wholesale, and retail clients. The company has grown rapidly by converting historically voice-based fixed-income trading into electronic execution. Recent market activity has been supportive: Tradeweb reported first-quarter revenues up roughly 21% year over year, with international revenue up about 29%, and average daily volume climbing more than 30% to $3.3 trillion. Net income rose approximately 39% in the same period. In recent weeks, TW shares have rebounded strongly off their summer lows and now trade near the upper portion of their recent range, though they remain below earlier 2026 highs. The stock carries a higher valuation than CME, with a forward P/E near 26, and a modest dividend yield near 0.5%. Its beta of roughly 0.6 indicates lower-than-market volatility despite its faster growth profile.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is scale and stability versus growth and momentum. CME generates the majority of its revenue from derivatives trading and clearing, giving it deep moats, exceptionally high net margins, and a long record of dividends and buybacks. TW, by contrast, is a technology-enabled platform company whose revenue scales with the secular shift toward electronic fixed-income trading, producing faster top-line growth but thinner margins and a smaller dividend. Sector exposure also differs: CME is heavily tied to interest-rate futures and clearing activity, while Tradeweb's fortunes are linked to bond-market liquidity, issuance, and electronification trends. On valuation, TW trades at a premium forward P/E, reflecting higher expected earnings growth, whereas CME trades at a lower multiple with a higher yield. Recent momentum has favored TW in the short term, though both names have recovered from mid-year weakness.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward TW in the current environment, driven by its stronger revenue and earnings momentum, a more favorable analyst consensus, and a more consistent recent uptrend. Tradeweb's accelerating volume growth and expanding international footprint provide clearer near-term catalysts than CME's steadier but slower trajectory. That said, the assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: CME offers greater stability, higher margins, and a more substantial income stream, which may appeal more to risk-averse investors. The relative positioning ultimately depends on whether an investor prioritizes growth momentum or defensive consistency.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CME is a Hold and TW is a Buy.
CME in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CME as a result. In 57 of 106 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CME just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CME's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
CME moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CME advanced for three days, in 170 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CME declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
CME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CME entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.149) is normal, around the industry mean (4.019). P/E Ratio (25.821) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.786). CME's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.578) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. CME's P/S Ratio (14.535) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.166).
TW in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TW as a result. In 61 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TW just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where TW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
TW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.11% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TW advanced for three days, in 202 of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 132 of 246 cases where TW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
TW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.876) is normal, around the industry mean (3.532). P/E Ratio (28.952) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.846). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.632) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (7.708) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.930) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
CME | TW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 46 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 58 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 78 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TW's Valuation (94) in the Internet Software Or Services industry is in the same range as CME (97) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that TW’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (58) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's SMR Rating (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (59) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (40) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TW (78) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew somewhat faster than TW’s over the last 12 months.
| CME | TW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 41% | 10 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 34% | 1 day ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CME’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CME’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CME’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CME’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +3.57% price change this week, while TW (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +8.83% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +2.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.53%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -5.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -17.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.36%.
Reported Earning Dates
CME is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
TW is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+2.74% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-5.38% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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CME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CME has been loosely correlated with ICE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CME jumps, then ICE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | 100% | +3.45% | ||
| ICE - CME | 49% Loosely correlated | +3.90% | ||
| TW - CME | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.57% | ||
| NDAQ - CME | 36% Loosely correlated | +7.47% | ||
| MKTX - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| MSCI - CME | 26% Poorly correlated | +2.61% | ||
More | ||||
TW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TW has been loosely correlated with MKTX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TW jumps, then MKTX could also see price increases.