Advertisement
CBOE vs CME
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) vs. CME Group (CME) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is the dominant U.S. options and index-derivatives venue, while CME Group (CME) is the world's largest futures and clearing exchange.
- CBOE has shown stronger recent momentum, helped by a 25-year extension of its exclusive S&P 500 options license and record index-options volumes.
- CME delivers a larger, more diversified revenue base, with strength in interest-rate, commodity, and equity futures and an active new-product pipeline.
- Both names carry premium valuations relative to their growth, making relative momentum and catalysts a key differentiator for traders.
- Volatility levels are a shared driver: elevated market swings tend to lift volumes and revenue for both operators.
Introduction
Investors tracking market infrastructure often weigh two heavyweights: CBOE, the Chicago-based leader in options and volatility products, and CME, the world's dominant futures exchange and clearinghouse. Although both generate revenue from trading volumes, market data, and clearing fees, they differ meaningfully in product mix, growth drivers, and risk exposure. This stock comparison is especially relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand relative performance, market positioning, and which franchise may be better aligned with the current environment of evolving retail participation, prediction markets, and shifting volatility regimes.
CBOE Overview and Recent Performance
Cboe Global Markets operates the largest U.S. options exchange and holds exclusive rights to list options on the S&P 500 Index, along with the widely followed Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a benchmark often described as the market's "fear gauge." In recent quarters, CBOE has delivered accelerating growth, reporting record results driven by strong demand for index options and short-dated contracts. Average daily volume (ADV) in its proprietary index options reached record highs, supported by both institutional hedging and rising retail participation.
A pivotal recent development was the extension of CBOE's exclusive S&P Dow Jones Indices licensing agreement through 2051, which removed a long-standing risk tied to the company's largest revenue stream. The company also announced a strategic realignment, including a workforce reduction, while raising its organic growth outlook. Its push into new "prediction market" products—binary contracts tied to company-specific key performance indicators—has drawn analyst attention as a potential new growth avenue, though it remains unproven and subject to regulatory approval. This combination of de-risking and optionality has contributed to notable positive momentum in recent weeks.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group operates the world's largest derivatives marketplace, spanning interest-rate, equity-index, agricultural, energy, and metals futures, plus foreign exchange and a growing cryptocurrency complex. It also clears the overwhelming majority of U.S. futures transactions. CME's scale is reflected in its financials, with quarterly revenue in the range of roughly $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion and operating margins approaching 70%, supported by its clearinghouse's dominant network position.
Recent performance has been more mixed than CBOE's, with the share price trading in a relatively narrow, choppy range in recent months. CME has remained active on the product front, introducing new contracts such as AI compute-capacity futures, additional cryptocurrency futures, and smaller "micro" contracts aimed at retail traders. At the same time, it paused certain planned launches, such as a 24/7 crude oil contract, reflecting a more measured approach. Analysts have been broadly constructive, with several raising price targets, though sentiment remains tempered by valuation and the sensitivity of results to volatility-driven volumes.
Trending AI Robots
For traders who prefer a systematic, data-driven approach to navigating comparisons like this one, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of its AI trading technology. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that monitor thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and statistics. Because no single bot fits every market condition, only the strongest and most suitable performers are featured in the Trending AI Robots section, where they are selected based on their recent results and alignment with the current market environment. Browsing this section can help traders identify strategies with demonstrated momentum rather than manually filtering through the full library of bots.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply in business model and growth profile. CBOE is concentrated in options and index derivatives, with a large portion of its revenue tied to S&P 500 options and VIX products—a concentration that creates both a powerful franchise and a degree of single-product risk, now mitigated by the long-term license extension. CME, by contrast, is diversified across interest rates, commodities, equities, and FX, which smooths out dependence on any single product line but also leaves it more exposed to macro-level volatility across multiple asset classes.
On momentum, CBOE has outperformed in recent months, reflecting its de-risked franchise and emerging optionality in prediction markets. CME offers a larger revenue base and a steadier, dividend-paying profile with a history of share repurchases, but its stock has traded more range-bound. On valuation, both trade at premium price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples relative to the broader financial sector, meaning neither screens as a clear value. Risk factors diverge as well: CBOE's fortunes hinge on options volumes and the success of new product categories, while CME's depend on interest-rate and commodity volatility plus regulatory shifts in clearing.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CBOE in the current environment. The stock has demonstrated stronger and more consistent recent momentum, and the long-term S&P license extension materially reduces a previously significant risk while the prediction-market initiative adds a potential, though unproven, growth catalyst. CME remains a high-quality, diversified franchise, but its more range-bound price action and greater sensitivity to broad volatility suggest a comparatively less favorable near-term setup. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting current data and momentum rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CBOE is a Buy and CME is a Hold.
CBOE sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for CBOE moved above the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CBOE as a result. In 58 of 96 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CBOE just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where CBOE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
CBOE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CBOE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +4.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CBOE advanced for three days, in 197 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CBOE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
CBOE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CBOE entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CBOE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.918) is normal, around the industry mean (4.019). P/E Ratio (24.772) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.786). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.241) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.615) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
CME in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CME as a result. In 57 of 106 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CME just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CME's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
CME moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CME advanced for three days, in 170 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CME declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
CME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CME entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.149) is normal, around the industry mean (4.019). P/E Ratio (25.821) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.786). CME's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.578) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. CME's P/S Ratio (14.535) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.166).
CBOE | CME | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 97 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 37 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 41 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CBOE's Valuation (88) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (97). This means that CBOE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CBOE's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (34). This means that CBOE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CBOE's SMR Rating (37) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (54). This means that CBOE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CBOE's Price Growth Rating (14) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (23). This means that CBOE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CBOE (55). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to CBOE’s over the last 12 months.
| CBOE | CME | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 47% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 41% | 23 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 34% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CBOE’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while CME’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CBOE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CME’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CBOE’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CME’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CBOE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CME’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CBOE (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +6.11% price change this week, while CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +3.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +2.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
CBOE is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
CME is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+2.74% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
Advertisement
CBOE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CBOE has been loosely correlated with CME. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CBOE jumps, then CME could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CBOE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE | 100% | +2.79% | ||
| CME - CBOE | 61% Loosely correlated | +3.45% | ||
| MKTX - CBOE | 29% Poorly correlated | +0.24% | ||
| TW - CBOE | 29% Poorly correlated | +1.57% | ||
| ICE - CBOE | 28% Poorly correlated | +3.90% | ||
| ARBK - CBOE | 22% Poorly correlated | -4.91% | ||
More | ||||
CME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CME has been loosely correlated with ICE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CME jumps, then ICE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | 100% | +3.45% | ||
| ICE - CME | 49% Loosely correlated | +3.90% | ||
| TW - CME | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.57% | ||
| NDAQ - CME | 36% Loosely correlated | +7.47% | ||
| MKTX - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| MSCI - CME | 26% Poorly correlated | +2.61% | ||
More | ||||