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CBOE vs CME
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) vs. CME Group (CME) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) reported record Q2 2026 net revenue of $731.6 million, up 25% year-over-year, with diluted EPS rising 50% to $3.35.
- CME Group (CME) delivered record July 2026 average daily volume of 27 million contracts, up 23% year-over-year, and beat Q2 earnings estimates.
- CBOE shares have declined approximately 22% over the past three months amid broader market volatility, while CME stock has posted modest year-to-date gains of 0.53%.
- Both exchanges benefited from elevated trading activity in derivatives, with CBOE highlighting strength in options and CME noting broad-based futures growth.
- CBOE raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook following strong results, whereas CME faces ongoing investor questions regarding perpetual futures products.
- Relative performance reflects contrasting momentum, with CBOE showing sharper earnings expansion and CME demonstrating volume resilience in a mixed market environment.
Introduction
Publicly traded exchange operators Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) and CME Group (CME) provide critical infrastructure for derivatives trading, including options and futures contracts used by institutional and retail participants for hedging and speculation. This comparison examines their recent financial results, trading volumes, and stock performance to assist investors and traders evaluating exposure to the financial exchanges sector. Market participants focused on relative value, sector rotation, or AI-driven quantitative strategies may find the analysis useful when assessing positioning within broader equity and alternatives portfolios.
CBOE Overview and Recent Performance
Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) operates global markets for equity, index, and multi-asset derivatives, with a significant presence in options trading. In recent weeks, the company released second-quarter 2026 results that included record net revenue of $731.6 million, representing a 25% increase from the prior year. Diluted earnings per share reached $3.35, up 50%, while adjusted diluted EPS rose 45% to $3.56. July 2026 volume data showed continued strength, including record average daily volume in mini-SPX options and growth in zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) contracts. The stock has experienced pressure over the past three months, declining around 22%, even as the firm raised its 2026 growth outlook. Sentiment has been supported by robust options activity but tempered by broader market concerns affecting exchange valuations.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group (CME) operates the world’s largest futures and options exchange, offering products across interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, commodities, and energy. Recent market activity featured a record July 2026 average daily volume of 27 million contracts, an increase of 23% year-over-year, driven by broad participation across asset classes. Second-quarter 2026 earnings exceeded analyst expectations, supported by hedging demand, though clearing and transaction fees faced some pressure. The stock has shown limited year-to-date appreciation of 0.53% and has underperformed the broader market amid investor attention on potential competition from perpetual futures products. Expansion of trading hours for silver futures beginning in September represents an effort to capture additional global and retail demand. Overall sentiment reflects volume resilience alongside questions about long-term product evolution.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) and CME Group (CME) both derive revenue primarily from transaction and clearing fees tied to derivatives volume, yet their product mixes differ. CBOE maintains a heavier emphasis on equity and index options, while CME offers wider exposure to interest-rate, commodity, and foreign-exchange futures. Recent momentum favors CBOE following its stronger earnings growth and raised guidance, whereas CME has delivered steadier volume gains but faced share-price stagnation. Risk factors include regulatory developments around new contract types for CME and potential shifts in retail options activity for CBOE. Sector exposure remains concentrated in financial infrastructure, with both entities benefiting from elevated market volatility yet sensitive to overall trading participation levels. Market sentiment currently reflects greater near-term optimism around CBOE’s results compared with CME’s more measured response to volume records.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings acceleration, revenue growth consistency, and volume trends in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable relative performance to Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) over CME Group (CME). The assessment incorporates recent-quarter outperformance in profitability metrics and guidance updates, alongside comparable volume strength at both exchanges. Probabilistic weighting also considers shorter-term price behavior and sector positioning, though outcomes remain subject to broader macroeconomic influences and trading environment changes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CBOE is a Buy and CME is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CBOE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileCME’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CBOE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- CME’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CBOE’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CME’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CBOE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CME’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CBOE (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +3.34% price change this week, while CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +2.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +0.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
CBOE is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
CME is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+0.38% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
| CBOE | CME | CBOE / CME | |
| Capitalization | 30.9B | 97B | 32% |
| EBITDA | 2.07B | 6.1B | 34% |
| Gain YTD | 18.524 | -0.283 | -6,555% |
| P/E Ratio | 23.08 | 22.88 | 101% |
| Revenue | 5.06B | 6.77B | 75% |
| Total Cash | 2.39B | 2.28B | 105% |
| Total Debt | 1.58B | 3.42B | 46% |
CBOE | CME | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 79 Overvalued | 49 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 51 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 37 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 65 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CME's Valuation (49) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CBOE (79). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to CBOE’s over the last 12 months.
CBOE's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (51). This means that CBOE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CBOE's SMR Rating (37) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (55). This means that CBOE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CBOE's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CME (55). This means that CBOE’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (65) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CBOE (71). This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to CBOE’s over the last 12 months.
| CBOE | CME | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 38% | 6 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 55% |
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CBOE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor tells us that CBOE and MKTX have been poorly correlated (+29% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that CBOE and MKTX's prices will move in lockstep.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CBOE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE | 100% | +1.04% | ||
| MKTX - CBOE | 29% Poorly correlated | -0.02% | ||
| TW - CBOE | 29% Poorly correlated | +0.72% | ||
| ICE - CBOE | 27% Poorly correlated | -0.33% | ||
| NDAQ - CBOE | 26% Poorly correlated | -0.58% | ||
| ARBK - CBOE | 22% Poorly correlated | +1.05% | ||
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CME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CME has been loosely correlated with CBOE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CME jumps, then CBOE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | 100% | +0.97% | ||
| CBOE - CME | 60% Loosely correlated | +1.04% | ||
| ICE - CME | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.33% | ||
| TW - CME | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.72% | ||
| MKTX - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | -0.02% | ||
| NDAQ - CME | 32% Poorly correlated | -0.58% | ||
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