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CMG vs SG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) vs. Sweetgreen (SG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) operates as a scaled, profitable fast-casual restaurant chain with annual revenue exceeding $11 billion, while Sweetgreen (SG) remains a smaller growth-stage salad concept with revenue near $680 million and ongoing net losses.
- Recent market activity shows CMG shares trading near $32 amid preparation for second-quarter results, reflecting broader sector pressures and a year-to-date decline of approximately 14%.
- SG shares have exhibited higher volatility, recently hovering near $6 following swings tied to produce-related concerns and operational updates, with elevated short interest above 20%.
- CMG benefits from established brand strength, consistent profitability, and lower beta around 0.93, contrasting with SG's higher beta of 2.17 and focus on menu innovation and automation.
- Both companies face consumer spending sensitivity in the fast-casual sector, though CMG's balance sheet supports share repurchases while SG has pursued liquidity measures.
- Relative positioning favors CMG for stability-oriented strategies, while SG offers higher-risk exposure to potential turnaround catalysts.
Introduction
This comparison examines Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Sweetgreen (SG), two publicly traded companies in the fast-casual restaurant sector. The analysis highlights differences in scale, financial profiles, and recent market behavior to assist investors and traders evaluating relative performance and positioning. Portfolio managers seeking established cash-flow generators and growth-oriented traders monitoring turnaround potential may find the side-by-side review relevant for assessing sector exposure and risk-adjusted opportunities in the current environment.
CMG Overview and Recent Performance
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) operates a large network of fast-casual restaurants specializing in customizable Mexican-inspired meals. The company maintains a market capitalization in the range of $44 billion and generates consistent operating cash flow supported by its scale. In recent weeks, shares have traded near $32, reflecting a year-to-date decline of about 14% amid broader market conditions and sector headwinds. Key influences on sentiment include anticipation of second-quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for July 29, alongside news of international expansion into markets such as Mexico. Performance has shown modest resilience on select positive developments, though overall momentum remains tempered by input cost pressures and consumer spending patterns.
SG Overview and Recent Performance
Sweetgreen (SG) operates a chain of fast-casual salad restaurants emphasizing fresh, plant-forward menu items and technology-driven operations. The company holds a market capitalization near $800 million and continues to focus on scaling while reporting net losses. Recent market activity has featured notable volatility, with shares trading around $6 following swings associated with produce supply concerns and menu innovations such as limited-time offerings. Year-to-date performance includes periods of gains offset by pullbacks, with same-store sales trends from the first quarter showing declines. Sentiment has been shaped by operational updates and broader industry challenges, resulting in elevated trading volume on both positive and negative news.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Sweetgreen (SG) differ markedly in business model and scale. CMG benefits from a mature, profitable platform with diversified geographic reach and strong brand recognition, supporting disciplined capital returns such as buybacks. SG emphasizes technology integration, menu experimentation, and a smaller footprint, positioning it for potential higher growth but exposing it to execution risks during the path to profitability. Recent momentum shows CMG maintaining relatively steadier trading ranges compared with SG’s sharper swings. Risk factors for CMG center on margin compression from costs, while SG contends with higher volatility and short interest. Sector exposure overlaps in consumer discretionary dining, yet CMG’s lower beta offers more defensive characteristics versus SG’s amplified sensitivity to market moves. Market sentiment reflects greater stability around the larger operator amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, financial stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign higher probabilistic favorability to Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) over Sweetgreen (SG). The assessment emphasizes CMG’s established profitability, lower volatility profile, and stronger balance sheet as providing a more consistent foundation for trend-following approaches. While SG presents legitimate catalysts through operational initiatives, its negative earnings trajectory and elevated risk metrics introduce greater uncertainty that algorithmic models typically weigh more conservatively. This relative preference remains dynamic and subject to shifts in earnings momentum or technical signals.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMG is a StrongBuy and SG is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSG’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CMG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMG’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CMG (@Restaurants) experienced а +17.08% price change this week, while SG (@Restaurants) price change was +7.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Restaurants industry was +4.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.34%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMG is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
SG is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Restaurants (+4.07% weekly)The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald`s Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.
| CMG | SG | CMG / SG | |
| Capitalization | 47.2B | 766M | 6,162% |
| EBITDA | 2.3B | 92.6M | 2,481% |
| Gain YTD | 0.595 | -4.586 | -13% |
| P/E Ratio | 34.46 | 53.75 | 64% |
| Revenue | 12.4B | 675M | 1,837% |
| Total Cash | 672M | 157M | 428% |
| Total Debt | 5.42B | 356M | 1,522% |
CMG | SG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 97 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 88 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 65 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 37 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMG's Valuation (83) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as SG (97) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that CMG’s stock grew similarly to SG’s over the last 12 months.
CMG's Profit vs Risk Rating (89) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as SG (100) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that CMG’s stock grew similarly to SG’s over the last 12 months.
CMG's SMR Rating (20) in the Restaurants industry is significantly better than the same rating for SG (88) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that CMG’s stock grew significantly faster than SG’s over the last 12 months.
CMG's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as SG (65) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that CMG’s stock grew similarly to SG’s over the last 12 months.
SG's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as CMG (62) in the Restaurants industry. This means that SG’s stock grew similarly to CMG’s over the last 12 months.
| CMG | SG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 45% | 4 days ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 87% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 88% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 7 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 63% | 11 days ago 88% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 85% |
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CMG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMG has been loosely correlated with FRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CMG jumps, then FRSH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 100% | -3.37% | ||
| FRSH - CMG | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.84% | ||
| SG - CMG | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.53% | ||
| CAVA - CMG | 49% Loosely correlated | -1.82% | ||
| BJRI - CMG | 44% Loosely correlated | -8.96% | ||
| CAKE - CMG | 43% Loosely correlated | +0.11% | ||
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SG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SG has been loosely correlated with CMG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SG jumps, then CMG could also see price increases.