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CAVA vs CMG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CAVA Group (CAVA) vs. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CAVA has delivered year-to-date (YTD) gains of over 55%, significantly outperforming CMG's approximately 11% rise amid strong growth momentum.
- Analysts have recently raised price targets for CAVA, signaling confidence in its same-store sales and expansion plans.
- CMG reported Q1 2026 revenue growth of 7.4% but faced margin pressures and modest comparable restaurant sales (comps) increase of 0.5%.
- CAVA trades at a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 168, reflecting growth expectations, compared to CMG's more moderate 30.
- Both stocks operate in the fast-casual dining sector, but CAVA offers higher growth potential with elevated volatility (beta 2.04) versus CMG's stability (beta 1.06).
- Market sentiment favors CAVA for near-term upside, while CMG provides a larger scale with consistent unit economics.
Introduction
CAVA Group (CAVA) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) represent leading players in the fast-casual restaurant sector, blending quick service with premium, health-focused offerings. This comparison analyzes their recent market performance, growth trajectories, and positioning amid evolving consumer preferences for Mediterranean and Mexican cuisines. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye CAVA's rapid expansion, while long-term investors might prefer CMG's established footprint and profitability. With both navigating labor costs and economic headwinds, understanding their relative strengths aids informed portfolio decisions in today's dynamic market.
CAVA Overview and Recent Performance
CAVA Group, Inc. operates a Mediterranean fast-casual chain with customizable bowls, pitas, and dips, emphasizing fresh ingredients across over 300 U.S. locations. In recent market activity, CAVA shares have surged, posting YTD gains exceeding 55% and trading near $91 as of early May 2026. This momentum stems from robust same-store sales growth expectations and analyst price target hikes, reflecting confidence in its expansion to 74-76 new units in 2026. Sentiment has improved on strong revenue trajectory—TTM at $1.18 billion—and upcoming Q1 results on May 19, though high P/E of 168 signals growth pricing amid volatility.
CMG Overview and Recent Performance
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a multinational fast-casual leader offering burritos, bowls, and tacos with responsibly sourced ingredients, operating thousands of restaurants globally. Recent weeks have seen CMG shares around $33 post its 2024 stock split, with YTD returns of about 11% and 1-year gains near 34%. Q1 2026 earnings highlighted 7.4% revenue growth to $3.1 billion and 0.5% comps increase, driven by new openings, but restaurant-level margins faced pressure from investments. Plans for 350 units in 2026 support systemwide sales, bolstering sentiment despite softer transaction trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CAVA and CMG thrive in fast-casual dining but differ in scale: CMG's $42B market cap dwarfs CAVA's $10.6B, enabling broader sector exposure. Growth drivers contrast CAVA's aggressive unit openings and Mediterranean niche versus CMG's mature expansion with Chipotlanes. Recent momentum favors CAVA's superior YTD performance, but CMG offers higher profitability (12% margins vs. 5%) and lower beta for stability. Risks include CAVA's elevated valuation vulnerability to slowdowns and CMG's comps sensitivity to consumer spending. Sentiment tilts toward CAVA for upside potential amid relative strength.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently lean toward CAVA due to its consistent upward trend, analyst upgrades, and superior recent relative performance versus CMG. Factors like growth catalysts and market positioning suggest higher probabilistic near-term gains for CAVA, though CMG remains attractive for stability seekers.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CAVA is a Hold and CMG is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAVA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileCMG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CAVA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CMG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAVA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CMG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAVA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CMG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CAVA (@Restaurants) experienced а -10.32% price change this week, while CMG (@Restaurants) price change was -0.19% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Restaurants industry was -2.28%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAVA is expected to report earnings on May 19, 2026.
CMG is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Restaurants (-2.28% weekly)The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald`s Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.
| CAVA | CMG | CAVA / CMG | |
| Capitalization | 9.31B | 40.9B | 23% |
| EBITDA | 153M | 2.31B | 7% |
| Gain YTD | 36.292 | -13.730 | -264% |
| P/E Ratio | 148.13 | 29.28 | 506% |
| Revenue | 1.18B | 12.1B | 10% |
| Total Cash | 393M | 869M | 45% |
| Total Debt | 466M | 5.25B | 9% |
CMG | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 95 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 37 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| CAVA | CMG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 84% | 6 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 60% |
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| DMB | 11.14 | 0.03 | +0.27% |
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CAVA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CAVA has been loosely correlated with SG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CAVA jumps, then SG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CAVA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA | 100% | +0.74% | ||
| SG - CAVA | 52% Loosely correlated | -3.71% | ||
| CMG - CAVA | 46% Loosely correlated | -1.75% | ||
| BROS - CAVA | 42% Loosely correlated | -3.00% | ||
| CAKE - CAVA | 41% Loosely correlated | -0.78% | ||
| SHAK - CAVA | 39% Loosely correlated | -8.04% | ||
More | ||||
CMG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMG has been loosely correlated with FRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CMG jumps, then FRSH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 100% | -1.75% | ||
| FRSH - CMG | 61% Loosely correlated | -2.49% | ||
| SG - CMG | 49% Loosely correlated | -3.71% | ||
| CAKE - CMG | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.78% | ||
| CAVA - CMG | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| WING - CMG | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.77% | ||
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