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CP vs CSX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) vs. CSX Corporation (CSX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CP operates the only single-line railroad connecting Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, while CSX is focused on the Eastern U.S. market.
- CP delivered an industry-leading operating ratio of 55.9% in its latest quarter, versus CSX's operating margin of 31.6% (different efficiency measures).
- CP's full-year 2025 revenue grew about 4% and core earnings per share (EPS) rose 8%, while CSX's revenue fell roughly 3% and adjusted EPS declined 12%.
- Both railroads face soft industrial demand, but CSX is leaning harder on cost cuts and workforce reductions to protect margins.
- CP guided to low double-digit EPS growth for 2026; CSX guided to low single-digit revenue growth and 200–300 basis points of margin expansion.
- On trend consistency and relative positioning, CP currently presents the more favorable setup on observable fundamentals.
Introduction
Investors weighing North American freight transportation often compare CP and CSX because both are Class I railroads, yet they serve different geographies and face distinct demand drivers. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and longer-term investors seeking exposure to rail, intermodal, and industrial freight cycles. The two companies compete in overlapping markets but diverge in network reach, commodity mix, and recent relative performance. Understanding these contrasts helps clarify market positioning and which name offers a more consistent operational trajectory in the current environment.
CP Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian Pacific Kansas City, traded as CP, is the only single-line transnational railway linking Canada, the United States, and Mexico, with a network of roughly 20,000 route miles and direct access to ports from Vancouver to the Gulf Coast. In recent market activity, CP has demonstrated relatively steady execution, reporting an industry-best operating ratio of 55.9% in its latest quarter, an improvement of 120 basis points year over year. Full-year revenue rose about 4%, and core EPS increased roughly 8%. The company has cited tariffs, softer forest products and automotive demand, and weather as headwinds, but its diversified commodity base and the integration of its Mexico corridor have supported sentiment. Management guided to low double-digit EPS growth for 2026, backed by mid-single-digit volume growth, a 15% reduction in capital expenditures, and a new 5% share repurchase program.
CSX Overview and Recent Performance
CSX, headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, operates an extensive rail network serving the Eastern United States, with exposure to chemicals, coal, agricultural products, automotive, and intermodal freight. Recent performance has been more subdued. Latest-quarter revenue declined about 1% year over year, full-year revenue fell roughly 3%, and adjusted EPS dropped approximately 12%, reflecting lower export coal revenue and weaker merchandise volume. Intermodal was a relative bright spot, growing volume and revenue. Under new leadership, CSX has emphasized productivity, cost control, and capital discipline, including management job eliminations and conductor furloughs, while completing a multi-year buyback. Management's 2026 outlook calls for low single-digit revenue growth, 200–300 basis points of operating margin improvement, and at least 50% growth in free cash flow.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two railroads is geographic reach and demand exposure. CP benefits from a unique three-country corridor that positions it for North American trade flows and near-shoring trends, while CSX is more tied to Eastern U.S. industrial activity and export coal. On efficiency, CP's operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, where lower is better) of 55.9% ranks among the best in the industry; CSX reports an operating margin (operating income as a percentage of revenue, where higher is better) of 31.6%, with management targeting meaningful expansion. Growth dynamics also differ: CP is guiding for double-digit earnings growth and capital expenditure reduction, whereas CSX is guiding for only low single-digit revenue growth and is relying more heavily on restructuring to restore profitability. Both names carry macro risks from tariffs, soft manufacturing, and coal headwinds, but CP's diversified, cross-border network and steadier margin trajectory give it a comparatively more consistent fundamental profile, while CSX offers a cost-recovery and turnaround narrative with intermodal strength as a potential catalyst.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, operating efficiency, growth guidance, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CP over CSX in the current environment. CP's industry-leading operating ratio, positive full-year revenue and earnings growth, and constructive 2026 guidance suggest a more stable, catalyst-rich setup. CSX's turnaround story is credible but depends more heavily on cost discipline and a recovery in industrial demand, introducing greater execution uncertainty. As with any quantitative assessment, this reflects probabilities rather than certainties, and individual strategy objectives should guide final decisions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CP is a Hold and CSX is a Hold.
CP | CSX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 39 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CSX's Valuation (88) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CP (90). This means that CSX’s stock grew similarly to CP’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Railroads industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CP (65). This means that CSX’s stock grew somewhat faster than CP’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's SMR Rating (39) in the Railroads industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CP (76). This means that CSX’s stock grew somewhat faster than CP’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CP (50). This means that CSX’s stock grew similarly to CP’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CP (20). This means that CSX’s stock grew similarly to CP’s over the last 12 months.
| CP | CSX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 56% | 9 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 51% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while CSX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CSX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CSX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- CSX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CP (@Railroads) experienced а -3.39% price change this week, while CSX (@Railroads) price change was -1.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -4.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
CP is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
CSX is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-4.68% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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CSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CSX has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CSX jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.