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CPA vs VLRS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Copa Holdings (CPA) vs. Volaris (VLRS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Copa Holdings is delivering industry-leading profitability, with a 2025 net profit of US$671.6 million and a net margin of 18.6%, while Volaris posted a full-year net loss of US$104 million amid engine-related disruptions.
- Copa carries far less financial risk, closing 2025 with an adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 0.6 times, versus roughly 3.1 times for Volaris.
- Volaris has a potential structural catalyst in its fleet-normalization plan and a proposed airline group with Viva Aerobus, but those catalysts remain execution-dependent.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Copa Holdings (CPA) — the AI currently favors CPA for its superior trend consistency, profitability, and lower leverage.
- For more detail on each name, explore CPA Major News and CPA Today's Price Move, as well as VLRS Major News and VLRS Today's Price Move.
- To see which automated strategies are best suited to current conditions, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Both CPA and VLRS operate in the Latin American and cross-border aviation market, yet they represent very different business models and risk profiles. Copa Holdings is a Panama-based full-service network carrier, while Volaris is a Mexican ultra-low-cost airline. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a consistently profitable, dividend-paying operator against a higher-risk, turnaround-oriented name with meaningful catalysts. Understanding the relative performance, market positioning, and balance-sheet strength of each can help traders and longer-term investors decide which profile better matches their objectives in the current market environment.
CPA Overview and Recent Performance
Copa Holdings (CPA), the parent of Copa Airlines, runs a hub-and-spoke network centered on its Panama City hub, connecting destinations across the Americas. In recent weeks, its fundamentals have stood out within the airline sector. For full-year 2025, the company reported a net profit of US$671.6 million, or US$16.28 per share, up 11.9% year over year, with an operating margin of 22.6% and a net margin of 18.6%. The company ended the year with roughly US$1.6 billion in cash and investments and an adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) ratio of about 0.6 times.
Recent market activity has been shaped by disciplined capacity expansion and stable demand. Capacity, measured in available seat miles (ASM), grew 7.8% in 2025, and management guided to 11%–13% growth in 2026. Copa has also returned capital to shareholders, approving a 2026 quarterly dividend of US$1.71 per share, while continuing to be recognized as one of the most punctual carriers in the region. Modest pressure on unit revenue, reflected in a slight decline in revenue per available seat mile (RASM), has been offset by cost control and a strong load factor.
VLRS Overview and Recent Performance
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación (Volaris) is an ultra-low-cost carrier headquartered in Mexico City, operating a large network across Mexico, the United States, and Central and South America. Its recent performance reflects meaningful operational headwinds. In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue rose 5.6% year over year to about US$882 million, but earnings per share came in at only US$0.04, a wide miss versus analyst expectations. For full-year 2025, the company reported a net loss of US$104 million, even as EBITDAR (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and aircraft rent) held up at US$988 million, a 32.5% margin.
The core challenge has been aircraft-on-ground (AOG) disruptions tied to Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF) engine inspections, which have limited productive fleet capacity. Management has framed 2026 as an inflection point, guiding to roughly 7% ASM growth as grounded aircraft return to service. Volaris has also pursued consolidation, agreeing with Viva Aerobus to form a new Mexican airline group under a holding-company structure, a move aimed at expanding low-fare travel and connectivity. These catalysts have drawn analyst attention, but profitability remains constrained while the fleet normalizes.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two names diverge sharply on profitability and leverage. CPA operates with net margins near 19% and net debt of only about 0.6 times EBITDA, reflecting a mature, cash-generative model with a shareholder dividend. VLRS, by contrast, is navigating a turnaround: negative full-year earnings, a net debt-to-EBITDAR ratio near 3.1 times, and fleet constraints from engine inspections. On growth, Copa is expanding capacity at a double-digit rate from a position of strength, while Volaris is deliberately moderating growth to match supply with demand.
Sector exposure also differs. Copa's hub model depends heavily on connecting traffic through Panama and broader Latin American demand, exposing it to regional currency and geopolitical dynamics. Volaris leans on high-volume, price-sensitive cross-border and domestic traffic, making it more sensitive to U.S.–Mexico travel sentiment and consumer spending. Market sentiment has favored Copa's consistency, while Volaris carries both higher risk and a potential re-rating story tied to fleet recovery and its proposed combination with Viva Aerobus.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently favor Copa Holdings (CPA). The company exhibits stronger trend consistency, sustained profitability, and a conservative balance sheet, alongside a recurring dividend and disciplined capacity growth. Volaris offers a potentially larger upside through fleet normalization and consolidation, but those catalysts are execution-dependent and carry meaningfully higher leverage and earnings volatility. Using probabilistic language rather than certainty, the AI's relative positioning leans toward CPA for its stability and lower-risk profile in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CPA is a StrongBuy and VLRS is a Buy.
CPA in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
CPA moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 36 of 40 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CPA as a result. In 68 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CPA just turned positive on November 03, 2026. Looking at past instances where CPA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The 10-day moving average for CPA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CPA advanced for three days, in 226 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CPA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
CPA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 6 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CPA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.029) is normal, around the industry mean (2.379). P/E Ratio (9.376) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.762). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.020) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.048) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. CPA's P/S Ratio (1.319) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.529).
VLRS in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026
The 10-day moving average for VLRS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VLRS as a result. In 68 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VLRS just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where VLRS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
VLRS moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +8.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLRS advanced for three days, in 245 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLRS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
VLRS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for VLRS entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 8 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: VLRS's P/B Ratio (13.405) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.379). P/E Ratio (-4.956) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.762). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). VLRS has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.025). P/S Ratio (0.220) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VLRS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VLRS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.
CPA | VLRS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 47 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 12 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 99 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 6 | 8 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLRS's Valuation (12) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CPA (53). This means that VLRS’s stock grew somewhat faster than CPA’s over the last 12 months.
CPA's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Airlines industry is significantly better than the same rating for VLRS (100). This means that CPA’s stock grew significantly faster than VLRS’s over the last 12 months.
CPA's SMR Rating (43) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VLRS (99). This means that CPA’s stock grew somewhat faster than VLRS’s over the last 12 months.
VLRS's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as CPA (40). This means that VLRS’s stock grew similarly to CPA’s over the last 12 months.
CPA's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as VLRS (48). This means that CPA’s stock grew similarly to VLRS’s over the last 12 months.
| CPA | VLRS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 56% | 17 days ago 81% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 85% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CPA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VLRS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CPA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLRS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CPA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLRS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CPA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- VLRS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CPA (@Airlines) experienced а +8.87% price change this week, while VLRS (@Airlines) price change was +24.78% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +5.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
CPA is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
VLRS is expected to report earnings on Mar 01, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+5.74% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
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VLRS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLRS has been loosely correlated with LTM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if VLRS jumps, then LTM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLRS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLRS | 100% | +2.74% | ||
| LTM - VLRS | 66% Loosely correlated | -1.19% | ||
| UAL - VLRS | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| ALGT - VLRS | 58% Loosely correlated | -2.59% | ||
| DAL - VLRS | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| ALK - VLRS | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.38% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
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| DDDD | 34.66 | 0.13 | +0.39% |
| YieldMax U.S. Stocks Target Double Distribution ETF | |||
| LDSF | 18.58 | -0.05 | -0.27% |
| First Trust Low Duration Strategic Focus ETF (LDSF) | |||
| NMAY | 29.21 | -0.08 | -0.29% |
| Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - May (NMAY) | |||
| DISV | 42.41 | -0.22 | -0.52% |
| Dimensional International Small Cap Value ETF (DISV) | |||
| NUKZ | 56.28 | -0.74 | -1.30% |
| Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ) | |||