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CPA vs LTM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Copa Holdings (CPA) vs. LATAM Airlines Group (LTM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CPA posted an industry-leading operating margin near 25% in its most recent quarter, driven by a low-cost structure and a high load factor (the share of available seats filled).
- LTM delivered double-digit revenue growth but trimmed its full-year earnings outlook as sharply higher jet fuel prices compressed margins.
- Both companies benefit from resilient Latin American travel demand, but CPA has shown stronger relative price momentum and analyst conviction in recent weeks.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: CPA is the favored ticker in this comparison, based on trend consistency, profitability, and a stronger earnings-revision backdrop.
- Explore more on these pages: CPA Major News, CPA Today's Price Move, LTM Major News, and LTM Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI trading bots are positioning for current market conditions, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors tracking Latin American aviation often weigh two distinct business models: Copa Holdings (CPA), a Panama-based carrier built around a single, efficient hub, and LATAM Airlines Group (LTM), the region's largest airline group by network scale. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating how operational efficiency and geographic diversification translate into relative performance and market positioning. While both companies serve the same broad travel demand, their cost profiles, fleet strategies, and recent momentum differ meaningfully. Understanding these contrasts can help readers assess which name currently offers a more compelling risk-and-reward setup in a fuel-price-sensitive industry.
CPA Overview and Recent Performance
Copa Holdings, S.A. operates Copa Airlines, a leading provider of passenger and cargo service connecting North, Central, and South America and the Caribbean through its "Hub of the Americas" in Panama City. The company's model emphasizes structural low unit costs, a simplified single-type Boeing 737 fleet, and strong operational reliability.
In recent quarters, CPA has demonstrated resilient profitability even amid elevated jet fuel prices. Its most recent results showed double-digit revenue growth, an operating margin near 25%, and a load factor above 87%, reflecting sustained passenger demand. Capacity expansion, a rising yield (revenue per passenger mile), and disciplined cost management have supported sentiment. The company has also maintained a regular dividend and a conservative balance sheet with substantial liquidity. Analysts have broadly maintained a constructive stance, with a consensus rating near "Strong Buy" and price targets implying further upside, positioning CPA as a high-quality, efficiency-driven operator within the sector.
LTM Overview and Recent Performance
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is Latin America's largest airline group, operating an extensive passenger and cargo network across South America and long-haul international routes. The company leverages scale, a diversified fleet, and a growing loyalty program to serve a broad customer base.
In its most recent quarter, LTM reported revenue growth of roughly 18% year over year, with net income rising double digits and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) exceeding consensus. However, average jet fuel prices jumped more than 50% from a year earlier, adding hundreds of millions of dollars in costs and pushing the adjusted operating margin down to about 12.5%. Management consequently lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance while raising its revenue forecast, signaling that fuel-cost pass-through has limits. On a positive note, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings both upgraded the company's credit rating to BB+, reflecting an improved balance sheet. Despite solid fundamentals, LTM shares have lagged recently, with negative near-term momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between CPA and LTM lies in business model and scale. CPA pursues a focused, low-cost hub-and-spoke strategy that produces best-in-class margins and high load factors, but concentrates its exposure in a single geography and fleet type. LTM offers broader geographic and revenue diversification—including a sizable cargo business and loyalty program—but carries a more complex cost base and greater sensitivity to currency and fuel swings.
On growth drivers, both benefit from resilient regional travel demand. LTM is expanding premium and cargo revenue, while CPA is adding capacity and destinations from a structurally lower cost position. Recent momentum, however, favors CPA, which has held up better on a relative basis, whereas LTM has faced selling pressure following its guidance revision. Risk factors differ: CPA is exposed to single-hub concentration and fleet concentration, while LTM faces greater fuel-price and foreign-exchange volatility. Market sentiment reflects these trade-offs, with analysts generally more positive on CPA's near-term trajectory.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward CPA as the favored name in this comparison. The stock's combination of consistent profitability, an industry-leading operating margin, a high and stable load factor, and a regular dividend suggests a more dependable trend profile. Relative momentum and a stronger earnings-revision backdrop further support the case, particularly when contrasted with LTM's recent guidance cut and softer near-term price action. This is a probabilistic assessment grounded in trend consistency, stability, and catalyst positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and conditions can shift as fuel prices and demand evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CPA is a StrongBuy and LTM is a Buy.
CPA in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
CPA moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 36 of 40 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CPA as a result. In 67 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CPA just turned positive on November 03, 2026. Looking at past instances where CPA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The 10-day moving average for CPA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +0.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CPA advanced for three days, in 226 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CPA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
CPA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CPA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.029) is normal, around the industry mean (2.379). P/E Ratio (9.376) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.762). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.020) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.048) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. CPA's P/S Ratio (1.319) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.529).
LTM's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for LTM moved out of oversold territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 8 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 7 of the 8 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LTM as a result. In 37 of 44 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LTM just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where LTM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 17 of 21 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
LTM moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.46% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LTM advanced for three days, in 110 of 148 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LTM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
LTM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LTM entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. LTM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.839) is normal, around the industry mean (2.379). P/E Ratio (8.811) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.762). LTM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (13.980) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.908) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
CPA | LTM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CPA's Valuation (53) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LTM (78). This means that CPA’s stock grew similarly to LTM’s over the last 12 months.
CPA's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LTM (32). This means that CPA’s stock grew similarly to LTM’s over the last 12 months.
LTM's SMR Rating (13) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as CPA (43). This means that LTM’s stock grew similarly to CPA’s over the last 12 months.
CPA's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LTM (50). This means that CPA’s stock grew similarly to LTM’s over the last 12 months.
CPA's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LTM (73). This means that CPA’s stock grew somewhat faster than LTM’s over the last 12 months.
| CPA | LTM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 2 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 56% | 17 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 43% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CPA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while LTM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CPA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- LTM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CPA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LTM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CPA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- LTM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CPA (@Airlines) experienced а +8.87% price change this week, while LTM (@Airlines) price change was +13.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +5.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
CPA is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+5.74% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
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LTM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LTM has been closely correlated with CPA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LTM jumps, then CPA could also see price increases.
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