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CVI vs MPC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CVR Energy (CVI) vs. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CVR Energy (CVI) reported stronger-than-expected Q2 2026 results with adjusted EPS of $0.34 and improved EBITDA, driven by high refinery utilization and nitrogen fertilizer segment strength.
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has demonstrated robust recent momentum with double-digit monthly gains, supported by favorable refining margins ahead of its Q2 2026 earnings release.
- Both companies operate in the downstream energy sector but differ in scale, with MPC representing a larger integrated refiner and CVI offering a more specialized refining and fertilizer profile.
- Recent market activity shows CVI experiencing notable price appreciation amid earnings beats, while MPC benefits from sector tailwinds and pre-earnings positioning.
- Risk factors for both include commodity price volatility, regulatory pressures on refining operations, and exposure to crack spreads.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between CVI’s operational leverage in smaller segments and MPC’s broader market presence and dividend stability.
Introduction
CVR Energy (CVI) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) represent two distinct players in the U.S. refining and marketing industry. Investors and traders focused on energy sector exposure often compare these names to assess differences in operational scale, segment diversification, and sensitivity to refining margins. This analysis appeals to those evaluating relative value within downstream energy, particularly individuals monitoring earnings momentum, dividend policies, and positioning ahead of broader market shifts in crude and product pricing. The comparison provides context for understanding how company-specific factors influence stock behavior in the current environment.
CVR Energy (CVI) Overview and Recent Performance
CVR Energy operates petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer production facilities primarily in the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions. In recent weeks, the stock has shown notable appreciation, with gains exceeding 20% over the past month amid favorable earnings developments. The company’s Q2 2026 results highlighted adjusted earnings per share of $0.34, consolidated net income of $46 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $209 million, reflecting improved performance in both the petroleum and fertilizer segments. High crude utilization rates near 98% and strong ammonia production contributed to positive sentiment. Market activity has been influenced by these operational metrics and broader refining margin trends, supporting a constructive tone in recent trading sessions.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum is one of the largest independent petroleum refiners and marketers in the United States, with extensive midstream and retail operations. In recent market activity, the stock has posted solid gains, including approximately 16% over the past month, amid tightening fuel markets and elevated refining margins. The company is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results on August 4, with analysts anticipating substantial year-over-year EPS growth. Earlier quarterly results demonstrated resilient net income, and the firm maintains a consistent dividend policy. Performance has been supported by sector-wide strength in downstream operations and positioning ahead of earnings, contributing to steady investor interest without extreme volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CVR Energy maintains a focused business model centered on refining and fertilizer production, offering higher operational leverage to specific product margins but with greater concentration risk. Marathon Petroleum operates at significantly larger scale with integrated refining, midstream, and retail segments, providing broader diversification and more stable cash flows. Recent momentum favors both names amid supportive refining conditions, though MPC has exhibited steadier sector-relative gains while CVI has reacted more sharply to its earnings release. Risk factors include shared exposure to crude oil volatility and regulatory scrutiny on emissions, with MPC’s larger footprint potentially amplifying sensitivity to national policy changes. Market sentiment remains constructive for downstream energy overall, with CVI showing more pronounced earnings-driven sentiment shifts and MPC benefiting from consistent dividend appeal and scale advantages.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning within the refining sector, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modest probabilistic edge to Marathon Petroleum (MPC). The larger scale and pre-earnings momentum provide a slightly more balanced profile compared with CVR Energy’s (CVI) higher volatility around quarterly results. This assessment reflects statistical patterns rather than definitive forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVI is a StrongBuy and MPC is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMPC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CVI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVI’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVI’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CVI (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +13.85% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +19.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +8.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was +31.16%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVI is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+8.16% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| CVI | MPC | CVI / MPC | |
| Capitalization | 3.55B | 99.8B | 4% |
| EBITDA | 785M | 12.4B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 42.997 | 121.068 | 36% |
| P/E Ratio | 51.10 | 12.32 | 415% |
| Revenue | 8.47B | 135B | 6% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 2.15B | - |
| Total Debt | 1.8B | 34.3B | 5% |
CVI | MPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 36 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 93 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (63) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (80). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (40). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (36) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (60). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVI (41). This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVI’s over the last 12 months.
CVI's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for MPC (93). This means that CVI’s stock grew significantly faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| CVI | MPC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 75% | 22 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 73% |
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CVI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVI has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVI jumps, then DK could also see price increases.