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CVI vs MPC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CVR Energy (CVI) vs. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CVI and MPC have delivered exceptional year-to-date gains, but their scale, business mix, and risk profiles differ sharply.
- MPC is a large-cap, integrated refiner with a diversified midstream arm, while CVI is a smaller, more leveraged refiner with fertilizer exposure.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: The AI currently favors MPC, reflecting stronger trend consistency, superior margin capture, and a more diversified cash-flow base.
- CVI carries elevated regulatory and balance-sheet risk, including Renewable Fuel Standard compliance costs, despite its powerful momentum.
- For deeper context, explore CVI Major News and CVI Today's Price Move, as well as MPC Major News and MPC Today's Price Move.
- To see which stocks the market's leading automated strategies are trading right now, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Refining stocks have been among the market's standout performers in recent months, driven by stronger crack spreads (the margin between crude oil costs and refined product prices) and resilient demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Against this backdrop, investors are weighing two very different ways to gain refining exposure: CVI, a mid-cap diversified holding company, and MPC, one of the largest integrated downstream energy companies in the United States. This stock comparison examines relative performance, business model, momentum, and risk to help traders and investors understand how these two names position themselves in the current market environment.
CVI Overview and Recent Performance
CVR Energy is a Sugar Land, Texas-based diversified holding company engaged in renewable fuels and petroleum refining and marketing, alongside a nitrogen fertilizer business through its roughly 37% interest in CVR Partners. This structure gives CVI exposure to both refining margins and agricultural fertilizer economics.
In recent weeks, CVI shares have climbed sharply, with year-to-date gains well above 100% amid favorable crack spreads and geopolitical supply disruptions. A UBS price-target increase and reports of insider buying added to the positive tone. However, the company's profile is not without strain: recent quarters have included net losses tied to refinery downtime, elevated Renewable Fuel Standard compliance costs, and high leverage. This contrast between strong share-price momentum and thinner, more volatile profitability is central to how investors are evaluating CVI today.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operates as an integrated downstream energy company across three segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream (through its majority interest in MPLX), and Renewable Diesel. This diversification provides a steadier cash-flow base than a pure-play refiner.
Recent performance has been strong, with MPC delivering triple-digit year-to-date returns and repeatedly setting new highs. Second-quarter results reflected a sharp recovery, including adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of roughly $8.5 billion and a Refining & Marketing margin capture rate above 110%. The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 10% and continues substantial share repurchases. These factors support investor confidence, though the stock's rapid appreciation has prompted debate about how much good news is already reflected in its price.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page is a curated selection of the platform's AI trading bots, chosen from hundreds of automated strategies that trade thousands of different tickers. Because only the bots best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this section, the page offers a focused way to see which strategies are gaining traction in real time. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the sets of tickers they trade, so no single approach dominates. For traders looking to complement their own analysis of names like CVI and MPC, exploring Trending AI Robots can offer an additional, data-driven perspective on current momentum.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is scale and diversification. MPC operates a nationwide refining system processing nearly 3 million barrels per day, paired with a growing midstream business that generates steadier fee-based income. CVI is far smaller, with a market capitalization of roughly $6 billion versus MPC's roughly $125 billion, and it leans on a narrower refining footprint plus fertilizer.
Growth drivers also differ. MPC benefits from high utilization, strong margin capture, disciplined capital allocation, and dividend and buyback growth. CVI is more sensitive to swings in crack spreads and carries heavier compliance and leverage burdens, which can amplify earnings volatility in both directions. In terms of market positioning, MPC has outperformed several major refining peers over the past six months and trades at a valuation below its sub-industry average, while CVI's valuation remains the subject of wider analyst disagreement.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor MPC over CVI. The larger company's combination of sustained momentum, superior refining margin capture, diversified midstream cash flows, and robust capital returns suggests a more resilient trend profile. CVI has delivered impressive gains, but its higher leverage and greater sensitivity to regulatory costs introduce more variability. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects current market conditions rather than a forecast of future prices.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVI is a Hold and MPC is a Hold.
CVI in -11.35% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on November 06, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CVI declined for three days, in 207 of 278 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CVI as a result. In 60 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CVI turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
CVI moved below its 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CVI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +8.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVI advanced for three days, in 263 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
CVI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 208 of 250 cases where CVI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 43, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CVI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.301) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). CVI's P/E Ratio (55.261) is considerably higher than the industry average of (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.490) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.629) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
MPC in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026
MPC moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 26 of 43 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPC as a result. In 46 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 54%.
The 10-day moving average for MPC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MPC's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 288 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
MPC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 269 of 351 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 43, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.487) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). P/E Ratio (12.902) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CVI | MPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 51 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 85 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (84) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (97). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVI (45). This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVI’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVI (59). This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVI’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (60). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
CVI's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for MPC (85). This means that CVI’s stock grew significantly faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| CVI | MPC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 30 days ago 78% | 29 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 74% | 6 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MPC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CVI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVI (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -20.35% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -8.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -5.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.64%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVI is expected to report earnings on Feb 23, 2027.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-5.18% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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CVI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVI has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVI jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| CCFE | 25.90 | -0.05 | -0.18% |
| Concourse Capital Focused Equity ETF (CCFE) | |||
| VABS | 23.79 | -0.07 | -0.29% |
| Virtus Newfleet Securitized Income ETF (VABS) | |||
| QB | 45.81 | -0.15 | -0.32% |
| ProShares Nasdaq-100 Dynamic Buffer ETF (QB) | |||
| USCI | 102.00 | -0.81 | -0.79% |
| United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI) | |||
| PFXF | 16.40 | -0.15 | -0.91% |
| VanEck Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF (PFXF) | |||