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CVI vs PBF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CVR Energy (CVI) vs. PBF Energy (PBF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CVR Energy operates a diversified model spanning petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer production, while PBF Energy is a pure-play independent refiner with roughly five times greater throughput capacity.
- Both companies have faced significant refinery-specific disruptions in recent quarters — CVI with a planned Coffeyville turnaround and PBF with the Martinez refinery fire — reshaping near-term operational profiles.
- PBF has delivered dramatically stronger share-price momentum over the trailing twelve months, significantly outpacing CVI on a total-return basis, though both stocks operate in a deeply cyclical and margin-sensitive sector.
- Balance-sheet dynamics diverge: CVI carries a higher debt-to-equity ratio but benefits from a diversified revenue stream, while PBF has leaned on insurance recoveries and asset sales to navigate operational headwinds.
- Regulatory exposure — particularly Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) compliance costs and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) obligations — remains a material headwind for both refiners, though the impact has been more pronounced for CVI in recent quarters.
- AI-driven tools such as those available on Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page can help traders evaluate these two stocks systematically by applying pattern recognition, trend analysis, and volatility-adjusted signals.
Introduction
Investors tracking the U.S. refining sector often encounter two mid-cap names that invite direct comparison: CVI (CVR Energy, Inc.) and PBF (PBF Energy Inc.). Both companies convert crude oil into transportation fuels, operate complex refinery assets, and remain highly sensitive to crack spreads — the difference between crude input costs and refined product prices. Yet beneath these surface similarities lie meaningful differences in scale, diversification, geographic footprint, and financial structure. This stock comparison examines how these two refiners stack up against each other in the current market environment, offering traders and investors a clear, fact-based framework for evaluating their relative positioning.
CVI Overview and Recent Performance
CVI (CVR Energy, Inc.) is a diversified holding company headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, with operations spanning petroleum refining, renewable fuels, and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing. Its two refineries — located in Coffeyville, Kansas, and Wynnewood, Oklahoma — have a combined throughput capacity of approximately 206,500 barrels per day. The company also holds a controlling interest in CVR Partners, a publicly traded nitrogen fertilizer partnership that produces ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), providing a secondary revenue stream that many pure-play refiners lack.
In recent quarters, CVR Energy's financial performance has been shaped by a combination of operational disruptions and regulatory headwinds. The planned turnaround at the Coffeyville refinery — a scheduled maintenance event involving extensive equipment overhaul — weighed on throughput volumes and contributed to elevated operating costs. Compounding the challenge, the company recorded an $89 million unfavorable mark-to-market adjustment tied to its Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) obligations, which require refiners to blend renewable fuels or purchase compliance credits known as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) showed resilience relative to prior-year periods, but bottom-line results remained negative. The company also announced a leadership succession plan, with Mark Pytosh set to assume the role of President and CEO, signaling a transitional period ahead. Controlled by entities affiliated with Carl Icahn, CVR Energy carries a concentrated ownership structure that shapes its capital-allocation decisions, including the historical pattern of issuing large special dividends during periods of strong free cash flow.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF (PBF Energy Inc.), based in Parsippany, New Jersey, is one of the largest independent petroleum refiners in the United States, operating six refineries with a combined processing capacity approaching one million barrels per day. Its facilities span the East Coast, Midcontinent, Gulf Coast, and West Coast, giving PBF broad geographic exposure to different crude oil sourcing dynamics and refined product markets. The company's refineries carry a high average Nelson Complexity Index — a measure of a refinery's ability to upgrade lower-cost heavy crude into higher-value products — which provides operational flexibility during favorable margin environments.
Recent performance has been heavily influenced by the aftermath of a fire at PBF's Martinez refinery in California, which occurred earlier in the period and forced the facility to operate at reduced capacity. Partial operations were restored in subsequent months, but throughput in the West Coast region dropped sharply, and per-barrel operating expenses in that region rose materially. A $250 million insurance recovery helped offset some of the financial impact, but adjusted operating loss (excluding special items) widened compared to the prior-year period. System-wide, PBF benefited from seasonally stronger margins across its other operating regions and has been rolling out a Refinery Business Improvement (RBI) initiative aimed at capturing over $200 million in annualized cost savings. The company also sold two non-core logistics terminals, generating proceeds to support balance-sheet flexibility, and has maintained its quarterly dividend despite near-term earnings pressure. Management has expressed a favorable long-term outlook, citing tight global supply-demand balances for refined products.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
At the most fundamental level, scale is the defining contrast between these two refiners. PBF's six-refinery, near-million-barrel-per-day footprint dwarfs CVR Energy's two-refinery, ~206,500-barrel-per-day operation, giving PBF far greater revenue generation — roughly four times CVI's trailing twelve-month top line — and broader geographic diversification. However, scale cuts both ways: PBF's larger operational footprint exposes it to a wider array of regulatory environments, including California's stringent Low Carbon Fuel Standard, while CVI's concentrated Midcontinent positioning has historically provided access to discounted domestic crude and favorable regional crack spreads.
Diversification is another key differentiator. CVR Energy's nitrogen fertilizer segment, operated through CVR Partners, provides a partial buffer against refining-cycle downturns. When gasoline and diesel margins compress, fertilizer earnings — driven by agricultural demand and natural gas input costs — can partially offset weakness. PBF has no comparable non-refining revenue stream, though its joint venture in renewable diesel through St. Bernard Renewables represents a long-term diversification effort.
On the momentum front, PBF shares have delivered substantially stronger returns over the trailing twelve months, reflecting, in part, the market's response to the Martinez recovery trajectory, insurance proceeds, cost-saving initiatives, and a broader re-rating of the refining sector. CVI's share price has appreciated more modestly over the same period, with the market weighing the impact of RFS-related compliance costs and the leadership transition. Balance-sheet comparisons reveal a mixed picture: CVI operates with higher debt-to-equity leverage, while PBF's total debt expanded in recent quarters partly due to working-capital outflows related to the Martinez incident. Both companies maintain active dividend policies, though CVI's historical pattern of variable special dividends contrasts with PBF's fixed quarterly payout approach.
Regulatory risk is a shared vulnerability. Both refiners are obligated under the Renewable Fuel Standard to blend renewable fuels into their products or purchase RIN credits on the open market. Because neither company owns a significant retail network capable of blending and generating its own RINs, both are structural buyers of compliance credits, creating an ongoing cost that can surge when RIN prices spike. This dynamic has been especially painful for CVI in recent quarters, as reflected in the large mark-to-market charges tied to its RFS obligation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, relative momentum, and the presence of operational catalysts, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely favor PBF in the current environment. PBF's significantly stronger price momentum across multiple timeframes, the ongoing recovery narrative at Martinez, the tangible cost-savings potential from its RBI program, and the proceeds from non-core asset sales collectively present a more dynamic near-term catalyst profile. That said, this assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive. CVR Energy's diversified revenue base, its historically strong free cash flow generation during favorable margin cycles, and its unique fertilizer-linked earnings stream mean it could re-emerge as the more attractive relative-value proposition if refining margins improve and RIN-related headwinds moderate. The cyclical nature of the refining sector means that relative positioning between these two names can shift meaningfully with changes in crack spreads, regulatory policy, and operational execution.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVI is a StrongBuy and PBF is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePBF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CVI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PBF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVI’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PBF’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PBF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CVI (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +6.49% price change this week, while PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +17.28% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +3.50%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +17.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +44.35%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVI is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
PBF is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+3.50% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| CVI | PBF | CVI / PBF | |
| Capitalization | 3.58B | 8.57B | 42% |
| EBITDA | 785M | 2.66B | 29% |
| Gain YTD | 42.619 | 170.441 | 25% |
| P/E Ratio | 51.62 | 6.33 | 815% |
| Revenue | 8.47B | 34.4B | 25% |
| Total Cash | 737M | 894M | 82% |
| Total Debt | 1.8B | 2.52B | 72% |
CVI | PBF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 12 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 93 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (12) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVI (77). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVI’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (42). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's SMR Rating (41) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (61). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (37). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
CVI's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for PBF (93). This means that CVI’s stock grew significantly faster than PBF’s over the last 12 months.
| CVI | PBF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 6 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 89% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 83% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 83% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 78% | 5 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 75% | 11 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 77% |
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CVI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVI has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVI jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVI | 100% | -6.46% | ||
| DK - CVI | 76% Closely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| PBF - CVI | 71% Closely correlated | -1.12% | ||
| VLO - CVI | 68% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| DINO - CVI | 68% Closely correlated | -1.05% | ||
| PARR - CVI | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.14% | ||
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PBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | -1.12% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| DK - PBF | 76% Closely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 76% Closely correlated | -1.05% | ||
| MPC - PBF | 73% Closely correlated | +0.76% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 73% Closely correlated | +0.14% | ||
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