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CVI vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CVR Energy (CVI) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- VLO commands a market capitalization of $71.23 billion, dwarfing CVI's $3.26 billion, providing VLO with superior scale in the refining sector.
- VLO's year-to-date (YTD) performance stands at +47.25%, significantly outperforming CVI's +27.32% amid recent energy market volatility.
- Both stocks benefit from robust refining margins in recent weeks, but VLO demonstrates stronger profitability with a 2.03% profit margin versus CVI's 0.38%.
- CVI's higher debt-to-equity ratio of 203.68% contrasts with VLO's manageable 43.99%, highlighting differing risk profiles.
- Analysts project substantial EPS growth for VLO's upcoming quarter, positioning it favorably relative to CVI ahead of earnings releases.
- Recent pricing of senior notes by both companies reflects ongoing capital management strategies in a dynamic oil environment.
Introduction
CVR Energy (CVI) and Valero Energy (VLO) are prominent players in the independent oil refining sector, processing crude into fuels amid fluctuating global energy demand. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and market positioning, offering insights for energy sector investors and traders navigating refining crack spreads (the difference between crude oil and refined product prices) and macroeconomic shifts. With both companies reporting Q1 earnings imminently, traders may find value in evaluating relative momentum, financial health, and growth catalysts in the current market environment.
CVI Overview and Recent Performance
CVR Energy (CVI), a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises, operates in petroleum refining, renewable diesel production, and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing. Its Petroleum segment refines crude at facilities in Kansas and Oklahoma, while Renewables focuses on soybean and corn oil feedstocks, and Nitrogen Fertilizer produces ammonia and UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) from pet coke gasification. Trading around $32 per share with a 52-week range of $17.95 to $41.67, CVI has gained 27.32% YTD, supported by elevated refining margins in recent weeks. Sentiment has been influenced by commodity price swings, insider purchases totaling $16.4 million over recent months, and a recent private placement of senior notes totaling $1 billion. However, its elevated trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of 119.96 and slim 0.38% profit margin reflect profitability pressures from low EPS of $0.27 (TTM) and high leverage. Investors await Q1 results on April 29 for updates on refinery throughput and fertilizer demand.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy (VLO) is a leading independent refiner with operations spanning the U.S., Canada, and internationally, producing gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals. It operates through Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol segments, marketing brands like Valero and Diamond Green Diesel for sustainable aviation fuel precursors. At approximately $238 per share, with a 52-week range of $112.23 to $258.43, VLO has delivered a robust 47.25% YTD return, though dipping 3.57% over the past month amid broader sector rotations. Recent performance reflects resilience from higher throughput, dividend hikes to $1.20 per share, and notes offerings, buoyed by strong diesel and jet fuel cracks. With a trailing P/E of 31.47, EPS of $7.58 (TTM), and 2.03% profit margin, VLO maintains solid fundamentals despite energy price volatility. Q1 earnings on April 30 are expected to show 255% EPS growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, both focus on refining but VLO's global scale and diversified renewables/ethanol exposure provide broader revenue streams than CVI's regional refineries plus fertilizer. Growth drivers favor VLO, with analysts forecasting 119% EPS expansion for 2026 versus CVI's more modest outlook, amid VLO's $132B revenue projection. Recent momentum shows VLO's superior three-month gain of +30% over CVI, though both face crack spread sensitivity. Risk factors include CVI's elevated debt (203% debt-to-equity) and ownership concentration, contrasting VLO's lower leverage and ROA of 5.02%. Sector exposure is similar in downstream energy, but VLO benefits from stronger market sentiment, evidenced by higher price targets ($250 average vs. CVI's $31) and consistent analyst upgrades.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors VLO over CVI due to its larger scale, superior YTD relative performance, robust earnings growth trajectory, and lower risk profile. VLO's trend consistency and positive analyst revisions position it better for sustained refining tailwinds, though CVI offers potential upside from niche catalysts like renewables and fertilizer recovery. This assessment reflects observable market data rather than guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVI is a Hold and VLO is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CVI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
CVI (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -7.48% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +1.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -0.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVI is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-0.01% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| CVI | VLO | CVI / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 3.08B | 76.8B | 4% |
| EBITDA | 600M | 9.51B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 22.799 | 60.629 | 38% |
| P/E Ratio | 126.41 | 18.89 | 669% |
| Revenue | 7.5B | 125B | 6% |
| Total Cash | 512M | 5.73B | 9% |
| Total Debt | 1.8B | 11.5B | 16% |
CVI | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 89 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 15 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 8 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (80) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (90). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (15) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVI (55). This means that VLO’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVI’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (50) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVI (95). This means that VLO’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVI’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (8) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVI (55). This means that VLO’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVI’s over the last 12 months.
CVI's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for VLO (96). This means that CVI’s stock grew significantly faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| CVI | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 77% | 12 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 10 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 72% |
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CVI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVI has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVI jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVI | 100% | +0.92% | ||
| DK - CVI | 76% Closely correlated | +0.32% | ||
| PBF - CVI | 70% Closely correlated | +1.85% | ||
| VLO - CVI | 68% Closely correlated | +1.20% | ||
| DINO - CVI | 67% Closely correlated | +1.95% | ||
| PARR - CVI | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.79% | ||
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VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | +1.20% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 86% Closely correlated | +1.06% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 82% Closely correlated | +0.76% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 77% Closely correlated | +1.95% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 77% Closely correlated | +1.85% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | +0.79% | ||
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