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CVI vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CVR Energy (CVI) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CVR Energy is a diversified refiner with a nitrogen fertilizer segment, while Valero Energy is a much larger, more complex independent refiner with ethanol and renewable diesel operations.
- Valero has delivered a standout relative performance in 2026, while CVR has posted more modest gains and remains near break-even on earnings.
- Valero swung to strong profitability in its latest quarter, whereas CVR continued to narrow losses while rebuilding its balance sheet and reinstating a dividend.
- The two names differ sharply in scale, margin resilience, shareholder return profile, and exposure to renewable-fuel compliance costs.
Introduction
Investors screening the U.S. refining sector often land on two very different operators: CVI, the diversified holding company behind CVR Energy, and VLO, Valero Energy, one of the world's largest independent refiners. Both stocks are sensitive to the same macro forces—crude differentials, crack spreads, and refined-product demand—yet their market positioning, scale, and recent momentum have diverged meaningfully. This stock comparison is relevant for traders seeking relative performance signals and for longer-horizon investors weighing balance-sheet strength, capital returns, and commodity-cycle exposure across two names with contrasting risk profiles.
CVI Overview and Recent Performance
CVI is CVR Energy, a Sugar Land, Texas–based holding company engaged in petroleum refining and marketing, renewable fuels, and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing through its interest in CVR Partners. Its structure is notable for concentrated ownership: activist investor Carl Icahn controls roughly 70% of the company, a factor that shapes both governance and trading dynamics.
In recent market activity, CVI has shown improvement but remains far from the profitability of larger peers. The company's latest quarterly results reflected sharply higher refining throughput and strong fertilizer utilization, yet it continued to report a net loss that narrowed to near break-even. Management reinstated a modest cash dividend and reaffirmed a deleveraging strategy aimed at returning gross debt toward $1 billion. Sentiment has been influenced by improving crack spreads, cheaper heavy crude differentials, and persistent regulatory headwinds tied to RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard) compliance and RIN (Renewable Identification Number) costs, which continue to pressure margins.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
VLO is Valero Energy, one of the largest independent petroleum refiners in the United States, operating roughly 15 refineries with total throughput capacity near 3.2 million barrels per day, alongside 12 ethanol plants and a 50% stake in the Diamond Green Diesel renewable diesel venture. Its scale, feedstock flexibility, and Gulf Coast footprint give it distinct competitive advantages.
Valero has been among the strongest performers in the energy complex during recent market activity, with its shares posting one of their best annual runs in decades. The company's latest quarterly report showed a decisive swing to profitability, with adjusted earnings well above Wall Street estimates, driven by a rebounding refining segment and improved renewable diesel and ethanol results. It also raised its dividend and returned substantial cash to shareholders. Positive sentiment has been reinforced by tighter global refining capacity, refinery closures in California, and favorable heavy-sour crude differentials, though some analysts now flag valuation as a key risk after the rapid advance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies refine crude oil, their business models diverge considerably. VLO is a diversified, high-complexity refiner with integrated renewable diesel and ethanol arms, giving it multiple margin levers and broad geographic reach. CVI operates a smaller, more concentrated refining base but adds a nitrogen fertilizer segment that can hedge against weaker fuel economics.
On recent momentum, the contrast is stark: Valero's shares have rallied dramatically, benefiting from constrained global capacity and widening crude differentials, while CVR Energy's advance has been comparatively measured. Risk factors also differ—CVI carries elevated RIN and RFS compliance exposure and a controlled-shareholder structure, whereas VLO now faces richer valuation expectations and the integration of recently idled capacity. From a market positioning standpoint, VLO offers scale and cash-return durability, while CVI presents a higher-beta, deleveraging turnaround profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VLO over CVI in the current environment. Valero's trend consistency, confirmed profitability, diversified revenue streams, and sustained positive catalysts—such as tightening refining capacity and improving segment margins—present a more stable and persistent uptrend. CVR Energy's improving operations and reinstated dividend are encouraging, but its near break-even earnings and heavier regulatory cost burden introduce more uncertainty. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: conditions could shift if refining margins normalize quickly or if CVI's deleveraging and fertilizer tailwinds accelerate.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVI is a Hold and VLO is a StrongBuy.
CVI in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026
CVI moved below its 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 44 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CVI as a result. In 58 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CVI turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for CVI's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +8.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVI advanced for three days, in 263 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
CVI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 201 of 250 cases where CVI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 38, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CVI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.306) is normal, around the industry mean (4.823). CVI's P/E Ratio (70.435) is considerably higher than the industry average of (12.693). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.490) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.062) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.629) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
VLO in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026
VLO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 25 of 28 cases where VLO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 287 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 256 of 338 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VLO moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 35 of the 52 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VLO as a result. In 46 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VLO turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
VLO moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 38, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.393) is normal, around the industry mean (4.823). P/E Ratio (15.901) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.693). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.062) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CVI | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 91 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 92 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (88) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (97). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (22). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (59). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
CVI's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (36). This means that CVI’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
CVI's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for VLO (92). This means that CVI’s stock grew significantly faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| CVI | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 78% | 14 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 12 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 89% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CVI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVI (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -15.38% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +0.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -3.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +23.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVI is expected to report earnings on Feb 23, 2027.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-3.04% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | +1.62% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 88% Closely correlated | -0.71% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 85% Closely correlated | -1.13% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 81% Closely correlated | +1.52% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 78% Closely correlated | +3.64% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | -1.22% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| PSIL | 19.51 | 0.43 | +2.25% |
| AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF (PSIL) | |||
| GGRW | 36.32 | 0.54 | +1.51% |
| Gabelli Growth Innovators ETF (GGRW) | |||
| WTPI | 32.25 | -0.03 | -0.09% |
| WisdomTree Equity Premium Income Fund (WTPI) | |||
| SECR | 24.50 | -0.04 | -0.15% |
| NYLIM MacKay Securitized Income ETF (SECR) | |||
| EAGL | 35.68 | -0.06 | -0.17% |
| Eagle Capital Select Equity ETF (EAGL) | |||