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CVI vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CVR Energy (CVI) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CVI and VLO both operate in petroleum refining, but their scale, diversification, and recent profitability differ sharply.
- VLO has delivered record earnings and a historically strong rally, while CVI has narrowed losses and returned closer to break-even.
- VLO benefits from a large, geographically diversified refinery network and a comparatively strong balance sheet.
- CVI carries meaningful exposure to Renewable Fuel Standard compliance costs that continue to pressure margins.
- Both names are highly sensitive to refining margins, crude differentials, and geopolitical supply disruptions.
- Relative performance has favored VLO, though its elevated valuation introduces a different risk profile than CVI.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to U.S. refining frequently compare CVI and VLO, two publicly traded energy names with very different footprints. This stock comparison examines how these companies differ in business model, market positioning, and recent momentum, helping both experienced traders and newer readers assess relative performance in a volatile energy environment. While both benefit from tight global fuel markets, their scale, balance sheets, and cost structures create distinct risk-reward profiles that matter to anyone evaluating a refining-focused position.
CVI Overview and Recent Performance
CVI (CVR Energy) is a diversified holding company headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, primarily engaged in petroleum refining and marketing, as well as nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing through its interest in CVR Partners. In recent weeks, the company has shown a notable improvement in operating performance, reporting a near break-even result with high utilization rates across its refining and ammonia operations.
Recent quarterly results reflected crude utilization around 98 percent and ammonia plant utilization near 99 percent, a meaningful step up from prior-year losses. Management has attributed part of the improving backdrop to tightness across energy and fertilizer markets tied to global conflicts. Still, the stock has faced ongoing headwinds from Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) compliance costs and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) obligations, which continue to weigh on margins. A leadership transition in mid-2026, with the promotion of a new chief executive, has also shaped the company's recent narrative as it pursues growth and deleveraging.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
VLO (Valero Energy) is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of petroleum-based and low-carbon transportation fuels, operating 14 refineries across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom with combined throughput capacity of roughly 3.0 million barrels per day. The company also owns a renewable diesel joint venture and 12 ethanol plants, giving it three distinct earnings engines.
Recent market activity has been exceptionally strong for VLO, driven by a surge in global refining margins following supply disruptions in the Middle East and attacks on Russian refining capacity. The company posted record quarterly earnings, with refining margins per barrel rising sharply versus the prior year, and returned billions of dollars to shareholders. The stock has rallied substantially over the past year and reached record levels, although analysts have noted that the shares trade at a premium valuation and that a normalization of margins could pose a pullback risk.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between CVI and VLO is scale. VLO operates a much larger, more geographically diversified refining system, which provides feedstock flexibility and the ability to capture wide crude differentials, particularly for heavy sour crude on the U.S. Gulf Coast. CVI runs a smaller refining footprint supplemented by its fertilizer segment, which adds a degree of diversification but does not match the throughput or margin scale of VLO.
On growth drivers, VLO is expanding high-value product output through projects such as a fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit optimization at its St. Charles refinery, while also benefiting from a rebounding renewable diesel segment. CVI is focused on operational execution and a brownfield ammonia expansion at its East Dubuque fertilizer facility. Risk factors also diverge: CVI faces pronounced regulatory cost exposure through RIN and RFS compliance, whereas VLO contends with elevated valuation and the durability of historically high margins. Sentiment has clearly favored VLO in recent months, but CVI offers a lower-priced, higher-volatility alternative for investors seeking leveraged exposure to refining fundamentals.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VLO in the current environment. The stock has demonstrated stronger and more sustained momentum, backed by record earnings, a robust balance sheet, and multiple operating segments contributing positive results. CVI has shown operational improvement, but its thinner margin structure and regulatory cost burden introduce comparatively greater uncertainty. As with any probabilistic assessment, this verdict reflects current market conditions rather than a guarantee of future performance, and relative positioning could shift as refining margins, crude differentials, and regulatory developments evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVI is a Hold and VLO is a Hold.
Aroon Indicator for CVI shows an upward move is likely
CVI's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 13, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 242 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 199 of the 242 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVI as a result. In 66 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVI just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where CVI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +8.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVI advanced for three days, in 263 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
CVI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 35, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CVI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.718) is normal, around the industry mean (46.814). P/E Ratio (73.551) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.488). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.490) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.629) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
VLO's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VLO turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where VLO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VLO as a result. In 65 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +5.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 284 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 251 of 332 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
VLO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 35, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.486) is normal, around the industry mean (46.814). P/E Ratio (16.246) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.488). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CVI | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 93 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 5 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (74) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (93). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (12). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (59). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (5) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (35). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
CVI's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for VLO (99). This means that CVI’s stock grew significantly faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| CVI | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 75% | 15 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CVI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CVI (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +9.93% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +8.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +2.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.80%, and the average quarterly price growth was +52.35%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVI is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+2.42% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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CVI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVI has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVI jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVI | 100% | +7.15% | ||
| DK - CVI | 76% Closely correlated | +4.42% | ||
| PBF - CVI | 73% Closely correlated | +7.23% | ||
| DINO - CVI | 72% Closely correlated | +4.33% | ||
| VLO - CVI | 68% Closely correlated | +4.69% | ||
| PARR - CVI | 66% Loosely correlated | +8.13% | ||
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