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CXW vs GEO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CoreCivic (CXW) vs. The GEO Group (GEO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CXW and GEO are leveraged to rising federal spending on immigration enforcement and detention capacity, yet their business mixes differ meaningfully.
- GEO has posted stronger recent momentum, roughly doubling year to date, while CXW has also gained substantially but pulled back in recent weeks.
- GEO carries a lower earnings multiple and has aggressively reset its balance sheet through asset sales, debt redemption, and an expanded buyback authorization.
- CXW offers a more real-estate-oriented model and recently underwent a chief executive transition, a factor that has added near-term uncertainty.
- Both names face shared policy and regulatory risk, including a new California tax on private detention operators and election-related headline risk.
- You can get more details on each company's major news and today's price moves on their dedicated pages — explore CXW Major News, CXW Today's Price Move, GEO Major News, and GEO Today's Price Move.
- For a data-driven view of current market opportunities, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors tracking the private detention and government-services sector often weigh CXW (CoreCivic) and GEO (The GEO Group) side by side. Both companies provide correctional, detention, and reentry services to federal and state agencies, and both have benefited from increased federal funding for immigration enforcement. However, their business models, balance-sheet strategies, and recent stock performance have diverged in ways that matter to traders evaluating relative strength and market positioning. This comparison is most relevant for investors seeking exposure to policy-driven government-services names who want to understand where the two stocks differ beyond their shared headlines.
CXW Overview and Recent Performance
CoreCivic operates and owns partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities, alongside a government real estate solutions segment. Its customers are primarily federal, state, and local agencies. In recent quarters, CXW has reported accelerating revenue growth tied to reactivated facilities and new federal contracts, with full-year 2025 revenue rising roughly 13% and net income up sharply. Occupancy has improved, supporting higher incremental margins as idle beds are filled.
Despite this fundamental momentum, the stock has been choppy in recent weeks, pulling back from earlier highs. Sentiment has been shaped by several developments, including the resignation of its chief executive for health reasons and the appointment of a successor, a terminated detention-facility contract in Texas, and a newly enacted California tax on private detention operators. Longer term, CXW has delivered strong shareholder returns, and the company has used asset sales and share repurchases to reduce debt and return capital, though its valuation multiple sits above many commercial-services peers.
GEO Overview and Recent Performance
The GEO Group is a diversified government-services provider spanning secure facilities, processing centers, community reentry, and — notably — electronic monitoring and case management under its ISAP program with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). This monitoring and services footprint gives GEO revenue streams beyond owned and leased beds, including transportation and technology-based supervision. Its operations extend across the United States and select international markets.
Recent market activity has favored GEO, with the stock roughly doubling year to date and trading near 52-week highs. The company has aggressively restructured its balance sheet, completing a $950 million sale of its Adelanto, California ICE processing complex, redeeming higher-cost senior secured notes, extending its revolving credit facility, and increasing its share repurchase authorization to $1.25 billion. Revenue has expanded alongside new and reactivated ICE contracts, and the firm raised guidance in recent quarters. Like its peer, it remains exposed to policy shifts and regulatory scrutiny, but its diversification and capital-return activity have underpinned strong relative performance.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a library of hundreds of AI trading bots that actively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, and performance statistics. Because not every bot suits every market environment, Tickeron curates a focused Trending AI Robots section highlighting only those currently best aligned with prevailing market conditions. These bots span approaches from swing trading to longer-horizon strategies, and their track records can vary widely by volatility and sector regime. For traders and investors comparing names like CXW and GEO, reviewing the Trending AI Robots page can offer a complementary, data-driven perspective on where algorithmic momentum is currently concentrated.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two stocks is their business mix. CXW is more concentrated in owned and leased real estate and facility operations, making it a purer play on detention capacity and occupancy. GEO, by contrast, blends secure facilities with a growing electronic-monitoring and case-management platform, offering broader revenue diversification.
On momentum, GEO has been the stronger performer recently, aided by decisive balance-sheet actions — asset monetization, debt paydown, and a large buyback authorization — that have improved its financial flexibility and earnings-per-share trajectory. CXW has also repurchased shares and reduced debt but has contended with a leadership transition and contract headwinds that have tempered near-term sentiment.
Valuation adds another trade-off. GEO trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple relative to CXW, which carries a premium that reflects its asset-heavy, higher-occupancy leverage. Both carry concentrated exposure to federal immigration policy and shared regulatory risks, so sector-wide catalysts and setbacks tend to move them together even as their individual execution differs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward GEO as the more favorably positioned of the two. The stock has demonstrated stronger and more consistent momentum, a more diversified revenue base, and a recently improved balance sheet supported by concrete capital-return catalysts. CXW retains meaningful long-term operating leverage, but its recent leadership change and contract-related headwinds introduce comparatively more near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: policy shifts, contract outcomes, and election-related developments could quickly alter the relative ranking between the two names.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CXW is a Hold and GEO is a StrongBuy.
CXW in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CXW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
CXW moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CXW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for CXW entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 53 cases where CXW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CXW as a result. In 64 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CXW just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where CXW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +3.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CXW advanced for three days, in 234 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
CXW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CXW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.085) is normal, around the industry mean (2.993). P/E Ratio (23.882) is within average values for comparable stocks, (2.637). CXW's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (55.830) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.749). Dividend Yield (0.058) settles around the average of (0.297) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.442) is also within normal values, averaging (2.085).
GEO in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026
GEO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 32 of 37 cases where GEO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GEO's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 26 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GEO as a result. In 80 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Following a +3.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GEO advanced for three days, in 230 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GEO turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 66%.
GEO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GEO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for GEO entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GEO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.421) is normal, around the industry mean (2.993). P/E Ratio (12.972) is within average values for comparable stocks, (2.637). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.337) is also within normal values, averaging (5.749). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.297) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.511) is also within normal values, averaging (2.085).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CXW | GEO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 88 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 54 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 75 | 88 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GEO's Valuation (54) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CXW (90). This means that GEO’s stock grew somewhat faster than CXW’s over the last 12 months.
CXW's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GEO (48). This means that CXW’s stock grew somewhat faster than GEO’s over the last 12 months.
CXW's SMR Rating (75) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as GEO (88). This means that CXW’s stock grew similarly to GEO’s over the last 12 months.
CXW's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as GEO (41). This means that CXW’s stock grew similarly to GEO’s over the last 12 months.
CXW's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for GEO (89). This means that CXW’s stock grew significantly faster than GEO’s over the last 12 months.
| CXW | GEO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 84% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 86% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 75% | 8 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CXW’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while GEO’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CXW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- GEO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CXW’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GEO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CXW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- GEO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CXW (@Miscellaneous Commercial Services) experienced а +1.54% price change this week, while GEO (@Miscellaneous Commercial Services) price change was +1.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry was -0.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
CXW is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
GEO is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Miscellaneous Commercial Services (-0.20% weekly)The sector produces general business services, and are not classified elsewhere. For example, FleetCor Technologies provides fuel cards and workforce payment products and services; Copart, Inc. provides online vehicle auction and remarketing services across various nations; Equifax Inc. collects and aggregates credit information on consumers and businesses worldwide, along with selling credit monitoring and fraud-prevention services. Many of the companies in this category have multi-billion market capitalizations.
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CXW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CXW has been closely correlated with GEO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CXW jumps, then GEO could also see price increases.
GEO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GEO has been closely correlated with CXW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GEO jumps, then CXW could also see price increases.
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