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ESS vs SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Essex Property Trust (ESS) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ESS, a West Coast multifamily REIT (real estate investment trust), trades at around $264 with a ~3.9% dividend yield, showing YTD gains of ~3% but lagging broader markets over one year at -3% to -7%.
- SPG, a leading retail REIT, commands a $66B market cap at ~$202 per share with a higher 4.3% yield, delivering stronger YTD performance of ~10% and 30% one-year returns.
- Recent catalysts include ESS's Q1 core FFO (funds from operations) beat at $4.06/share and share buybacks, versus SPG's resilient leasing amid retail recovery.
- Analyst consensus leans "Hold" for both, with ESS targets ~$283 (7% upside) and SPG ~$200-$210 (modest upside), reflecting balanced sector sentiment.
- SPG offers superior scale and momentum, while ESS provides stability in high-demand apartment markets.
Introduction
Essex Property Trust (ESS) and Simon Property Group (SPG) represent distinct segments within the REIT landscape: multifamily residential versus premier retail properties. This stock comparison evaluates their relative performance, business models, and market positioning amid evolving interest rates and economic conditions. Investors seeking income through dividends or growth via operational resilience, as well as traders monitoring REIT sector rotation, will find value in understanding how these S&P 500 constituents stack up in recent market activity. With both offering yields above 3.5%, the analysis highlights trade-offs in risk, momentum, and catalysts for informed portfolio decisions.
ESS Overview and Recent Performance
Essex Property Trust (ESS), an S&P 500 REIT, focuses on acquiring, developing, and managing over 250 multifamily communities totaling 63,000+ apartment homes in supply-constrained West Coast markets like Southern California, Northern California, and Seattle. In recent weeks, ESS shares have consolidated around $260-$267, reflecting stability amid broader REIT pressures from interest rate sensitivity.
Key influences include a strong Q1 2026 core FFO of $4.06 per share, surpassing estimates, driven by 2.9% same-property revenue growth and 4.1% NOI (net operating income) increase. The company initiated a $259M share repurchase program, repurchased $62M YTD at ~$244/share, and raised its annual dividend 0.8% to $10.36 (yield ~3.9%). YTD returns stand at ~3%, with one-year performance down -3% to -7% versus S&P 500's 30%+. Sentiment benefits from West Coast demand tied to tech and return-to-office trends, though elevated supply in some submarkets tempers gains. Analyst upgrades, like Piper Sandler's to Overweight, cite Bay Area rebound potential.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group (SPG), the largest retail REIT and an S&P 100 member, owns and manages ~230 premium shopping centers, malls, outlets, and mixed-use properties spanning 183M sq ft across North America, Europe, and Asia. Recent market activity has seen SPG shares fluctuate around $200-$205, buoyed by consumer spending resilience.
Performance drivers include robust leasing spreads and high occupancy, with YTD returns of ~10% outperforming the S&P 500's 8% and one-year gains near 30%. The forward dividend yield sits at ~4.3% ($8.65 annualized), supported by NOI growth. Shares hit 52-week highs near $208 amid retail recovery, though rising yields pressured valuations recently. Upcoming Q1 earnings on May 11, 2026, are anticipated to reflect continued momentum from premium destinations. Positive sentiment stems from diversification into experiential retail and international exposure, balancing e-commerce risks with strong tenant demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ESS (~$17B market cap, P/E ~30) emphasizes multifamily stability in barrier-to-entry markets, with lower beta (~0.7) versus SPG (~$66B cap, P/E ~14 trailing/~30 forward). Growth drivers differ: ESS leverages same-store NOI from rent growth (recent 4%+), while SPG benefits from retail leasing momentum and outlet traffic.
Recent momentum favors SPG (10% YTD vs. ESS's 3%), but ESS shows steadier price action. Risk factors include interest rate exposure (both sensitive, but SPG's scale aids liquidity) and sector headwinds—multifamily supply for ESS, e-commerce for SPG. Sector exposure contrasts residential demand (tech-driven) with retail recovery (consumer spending). Market sentiment tilts positive for both "Hold" ratings, with SPG enjoying stronger historical multi-year gains (119% 3-year).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors SPG due to superior trend consistency, higher YTD/one-year momentum, elevated dividend yield, and scale advantages in a retail rebound environment. While ESS offers West Coast stability and recent operational beats, SPG's relative positioning and catalysts like leasing strength suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term, barring rate shocks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ESS is a Hold and SPG is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ESS’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSPG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ESS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ESS’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ESS’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ESS (@Media Conglomerates) experienced а -1.48% price change this week, while SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was +1.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Media Conglomerates industry was -3.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.29%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was -2.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.63%.
Reported Earning Dates
ESS is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Media Conglomerates (-3.26% weekly)Companies that operate in these three (or more) areas: broadcasting, cable TV, publishing and movies/entertainment. The companies usually have a large share in these markets. Walt Disney Co . is an example.
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (-2.76% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
| ESS | SPG | ESS / SPG | |
| Capitalization | 17.6B | 68.1B | 26% |
| EBITDA | 1.48B | 8.23B | 18% |
| Gain YTD | 7.044 | 15.937 | 44% |
| P/E Ratio | 30.87 | 14.59 | 212% |
| Revenue | 1.91B | 6.65B | 29% |
| Total Cash | 135M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 6.86B | 29B | 24% |
ESS | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 33 Fair valued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 70 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 19 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ESS's Valuation (33) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (96). This means that ESS’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ESS (79). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than ESS’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (11) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ESS (70). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than ESS’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (19) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as ESS (31). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to ESS’s over the last 12 months.
ESS's P/E Growth Rating (38) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (89). This means that ESS’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| ESS | SPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 37% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 51% | 6 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 39% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 48% |
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ESS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ESS has been closely correlated with AVB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ESS jumps, then AVB could also see price increases.
SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with FR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then FR could also see price increases.