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ESS vs SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Essex Property Trust (ESS) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ESS (Essex Property Trust) delivered solid Q2 2026 results with core funds from operations (FFO) beating expectations and raised full-year guidance, supporting steady residential REIT performance.
- SPG (Simon Property Group) has shown stronger year-to-date total returns of approximately 20-23% compared to ESS's roughly 10-11%, driven by retail sector demand.
- Both stocks operate as real estate investment trusts (REITs) but target different property types: ESS focuses on West Coast apartments while SPG emphasizes retail malls and shopping centers.
- Recent market activity shows ESS trading near $288 with positive operational momentum, while SPG trades around $223 amid analyst caution following new highs.
- Sector exposure differs significantly, with ESS sensitive to housing trends and SPG more tied to consumer spending and retail recovery.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between stability in residential real estate and growth potential in retail properties.
Introduction
Essex Property Trust (ESS) and Simon Property Group (SPG) represent two established real estate investment trusts (REITs) with distinct property portfolios. This comparison examines their business models, recent performance, and market positioning in the current environment. Professional investors and traders evaluating REIT allocations may find the analysis relevant for understanding sector-specific dynamics, risk profiles, and relative momentum between residential and retail real estate exposure.
ESS Overview and Recent Performance
Essex Property Trust, Inc. owns, operates, and develops apartment communities primarily along the West Coast. In recent weeks, the company reported second-quarter 2026 results that exceeded guidance, with core FFO per share rising 1.2% year-over-year and same-property net operating income (NOI) contributing positively. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance, citing operational outperformance. The stock has traded in a range near $288 amid broader market activity, reflecting investor focus on housing fundamentals and interest rate sensitivity. Sentiment has been supported by consistent execution in a stable residential segment.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group, Inc. is a leading owner and operator of retail real estate, including malls and premium outlets. Recent market activity shows the stock trading around $223 following strong year-to-date gains. The company is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings soon, with analysts anticipating revenue near $1.71 billion. Institutional interest has remained elevated, though some analysts have adopted a more cautious stance after the shares reached elevated levels. Performance has been influenced by retail tenant demand and broader consumer spending patterns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ESS and SPG differ markedly in business focus: ESS concentrates on multifamily residential properties with exposure to regional housing markets, while SPG operates in the retail sector with sensitivity to discretionary spending. Growth drivers for ESS center on occupancy rates and rental growth in coastal markets; SPG benefits from tenant sales trends and property redevelopment. Recent momentum has favored SPG on a year-to-date basis, though ESS has demonstrated steadier operational beats in its latest reporting. Risk factors include interest rate impacts on both, with ESS facing potential regional economic softness and SPG contending with retail cyclicality. Market sentiment reflects these contrasts, with ESS viewed through a defensive residential lens and SPG positioned for retail recovery upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to SPG due to its stronger recent total returns and retail sector tailwinds, while acknowledging ESS’s operational stability and guidance raises as supportive elements. The assessment remains conditional on continued market conditions and does not constitute investment advice.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ESS is a Hold and SPG is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ESS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSPG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ESS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ESS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPG’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ESS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ESS (@Media Conglomerates) experienced а -0.20% price change this week, while SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was -1.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Media Conglomerates industry was +0.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.52%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was -0.48%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
ESS is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Media Conglomerates (+0.57% weekly)Companies that operate in these three (or more) areas: broadcasting, cable TV, publishing and movies/entertainment. The companies usually have a large share in these markets. Walt Disney Co . is an example.
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (-0.48% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
| ESS | SPG | ESS / SPG | |
| Capitalization | 18.5B | 71B | 26% |
| EBITDA | 1.31B | 8.23B | 16% |
| Gain YTD | 13.152 | 21.307 | 62% |
| P/E Ratio | 44.79 | 61.98 | 72% |
| Revenue | 1.93B | 6.65B | 29% |
| Total Cash | 150M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 6.75B | 29B | 23% |
ESS | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 65 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 99 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 90 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ESS's Valuation (74) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as SPG (99). This means that ESS’s stock grew similarly to SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for ESS (90). This means that SPG’s stock grew significantly faster than ESS’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (11) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for ESS (79). This means that SPG’s stock grew significantly faster than ESS’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as ESS (50). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to ESS’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as ESS (9). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to ESS’s over the last 12 months.
| ESS | SPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 51% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 41% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 47% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 44% | 5 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 42% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 52% |
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ESS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ESS has been closely correlated with EQR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ESS jumps, then EQR could also see price increases.
SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with FR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then FR could also see price increases.