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ESS vs SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Essex Property Trust (ESS) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ESS is a West Coast apartment real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on high-barrier coastal markets, while SPG owns premium malls, outlets, and mixed-use retail destinations.
- Both companies topped consensus funds from operations (FFO) estimates in their most recent quarters, but SPG has shown stronger recent momentum and raised full-year guidance.
- SPG carries a higher dividend yield and larger market capitalization, while ESS offers a lower-beta, more defensive profile with a 32-year streak of dividend increases.
- ESS has underperformed the broader market year to date, whereas SPG has outperformed, supported by robust leasing and retail operating metrics.
- Key risk differences: ESS faces regional rent and supply dynamics on the West Coast, while SPG contends with e-commerce and consumer-spending headwinds.
Introduction
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a common way for investors to gain exposure to property income, but not all REITs are alike. ESS (Essex Property Trust) and SPG (Simon Property Group) sit at opposite ends of the sector: one owns apartments, the other owns retail centers. This stock comparison is relevant for income-oriented investors and traders weighing defensive residential exposure against a higher-growth, retail-led recovery story. By examining business models, recent performance, risk factors, and market positioning, this article aims to clarify how these two names compare in the current environment.
ESS Overview and Recent Performance
Essex Property Trust (ESS) is a self-administered REIT that owns, operates, and develops apartment communities concentrated in supply-constrained West Coast markets, primarily Northern and Southern California and the Seattle metro. Its investment thesis centers on limited new housing supply and durable rental demand in high-barrier coastal regions.
In its most recent quarterly results, ESS reported core funds from operations (FFO) per share above consensus, supported by same-property net operating income (NOI) growth of roughly 4% and financial occupancy near 96.5%. Scheduled rents and improving delinquency trends drove the property-level momentum. The company also raised its annual dividend modestly, extending a record of consecutive annual increases spanning more than three decades, and reaffirmed its full-year core FFO outlook.
Despite solid operating fundamentals, the stock has lagged the broader market over recent weeks. Analysts have trimmed price targets amid a more cautious view of apartment REIT valuations and regional dynamics. ESS trades with a beta below the market average, reflecting its defensive, income-focused character, and carries investment-grade credit ratings from Moody's and S&P.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group (SPG) is one of the largest retail-focused REITs in the world, owning and operating premier malls, Premium Outlets, and mixed-use destinations across the U.S. and internationally. Its portfolio skews toward Class A properties that continue to draw foot traffic even as weaker malls struggle.
Recent results have been notably strong. SPG topped FFO and revenue estimates, with occupancy at U.S. malls and outlets near 96% and new lease rates well above prior-year levels. Management raised its full-year FFO guidance, increased its quarterly dividend, and continued buybacks, while reporting healthy retailer sales per square foot and rising base rents. Liquidity remains ample, and the company holds A/A3 investment-grade ratings.
This momentum has translated into share-price outperformance relative to the market year to date, and SPG currently offers a dividend yield above that of ESS. However, the stock has pulled back from its 52-week high in recent months, and valuation multiples remain elevated after a multi-year rally, leaving some investors focused on whether the retail recovery can be sustained.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between ESS and SPG is their sector exposure. ESS provides residential income with comparatively low volatility and modest but steady NOI growth, making it a defensive holding. SPG offers a retail-driven growth narrative with stronger recent momentum, a higher yield, and a significantly larger market capitalization, but with greater cyclical sensitivity to consumer spending and e-commerce competition.
On growth drivers, SPG benefits from redevelopment projects, mixed-use conversions, and digital initiatives, whereas ESS relies on organic rent growth in supply-constrained coastal markets. On risk, SPG faces structural retail headwinds and interest-rate sensitivity, while ESS contends with regional rent trends, higher insurance and operating costs, and a softer outlook for apartment REITs. In terms of relative performance, SPG has outperformed the market this year while ESS has trailed, though ESS's lower beta and longer dividend streak may appeal to stability-seeking investors.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SPG in the current environment. The stock exhibits stronger trend consistency, upward estimate revisions, rising guidance, and more compelling near-term catalysts from leasing, redevelopment, and capital returns. ESS remains a high-quality, defensive income name, but its relatively softer momentum and neutral analyst positioning suggest a more range-bound profile at present. This assessment reflects current market positioning and is probabilistic in nature, not a definitive prediction or investment recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ESS is a Buy and SPG is a Buy.
ESS's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ESS turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where ESS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ESS as a result. In 46 of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
ESS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ESS advanced for three days, in 166 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ESS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
ESS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ESS entered a downward trend on September 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ESS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.410) is normal, around the industry mean (2.134). P/E Ratio (43.995) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.256). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (7.018) is also within normal values, averaging (6.209). Dividend Yield (0.037) settles around the average of (1.976) among similar stocks. ESS's P/S Ratio (9.066) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.317).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ESS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 96, placing this stock better than average.
SPG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPG turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SPG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPG as a result. In 67 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
SPG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPG advanced for three days, in 191 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
SPG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SPG entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SPG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SPG's P/B Ratio (15.613) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.646). P/E Ratio (14.964) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.201). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.576) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.042) settles around the average of (305.774) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.515) is also within normal values, averaging (6.739).
ESS | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 93 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ESS's Valuation (93) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as SPG (100). This means that ESS’s stock grew similarly to SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for ESS (93). This means that SPG’s stock grew significantly faster than ESS’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (12) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ESS (77). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than ESS’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as ESS (49). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to ESS’s over the last 12 months.
ESS's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for SPG (87). This means that ESS’s stock grew significantly faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| ESS | SPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 8 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 45% | 10 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 29% | 2 days ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ESS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SPG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ESS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ESS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ESS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ESS (@Media Conglomerates) experienced а +4.74% price change this week, while SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was +4.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Media Conglomerates industry was +1.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.67%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was +0.90%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
ESS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Media Conglomerates (+1.25% weekly)Companies that operate in these three (or more) areas: broadcasting, cable TV, publishing and movies/entertainment. The companies usually have a large share in these markets. Walt Disney Co . is an example.
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (+0.90% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
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SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with CUZ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then CUZ could also see price increases.