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FR vs SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FR and SPG both delivered strong YTD returns around 10%, with 1-year gains exceeding 30%, reflecting solid REIT sector momentum.
- FR, an industrial REIT, reported robust Q1 2026 leasing with 41% cash rental rate growth, supporting occupancy in key logistics markets.
- SPG, a retail REIT giant, offers a higher dividend yield of approximately 4.3% versus FR's 3.2%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- SPG trades at a lower P/E ratio of 14.3 compared to FR's 24.2, suggesting relative value in retail real estate.
- Recent market activity shows modest monthly gains for both, with FR up about 4% and SPG up 1%, amid stabilizing industrial fundamentals and retail resilience.
- AI analysis favors SPG for its scale, yield advantage, and valuation in the current environment.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines FR (First Industrial Realty Trust) and SPG (Simon Property Group), two prominent real estate investment trusts (REITs) with distinct sector exposures. FR focuses on industrial logistics properties, benefiting from e-commerce and supply chain demands, while SPG dominates retail malls and outlets, capitalizing on consumer spending recovery. Traders seeking momentum in logistics or retail, and investors prioritizing dividends or growth, will find value in understanding their relative performance, valuations, and market positioning amid recent economic shifts. This analysis draws on current data to highlight contrasts in recent market activity.
FR Overview and Recent Performance
First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) is a leading owner, operator, developer, and acquirer of industrial logistics properties, with approximately 71.6 million square feet across 15 major U.S. markets as of Q1 2026. The company targets high-quality facilities for multinational and regional supply chain needs.
In recent market activity, FR shares traded around $62.75, with YTD returns of 10.53% and 1-year gains of 31.42%. Monthly performance showed a 3.84% increase, supported by Q1 2026 results featuring 41% cash rental rate growth on new and renewal leases, including a major Southern California renewal, and 8.7% cash same-store NOI (net operating income) growth. Stabilizing national industrial vacancy at 6.7% and disciplined new supply bolstered sentiment, despite a slight FFO miss. Analyst updates, such as Baird raising its price target to $68, reflect optimism on leasing momentum.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group (SPG) is a self-administered REIT owning and managing premier shopping, dining, and mixed-use destinations, including malls, Premium Outlets, and international properties totaling 183 million square feet across North America, Asia, and Europe.
Recent weeks saw SPG shares near $202, posting YTD returns of about 10% and 1-year appreciation of 30%. One-month gains approximated 0.7%, with the stock showing resilience ahead of Q1 earnings. Positive analyst projections anticipate a potential FFO beat, driven by revenue growth estimates of 6.43%. Retail fundamentals, including occupancy and consumer traffic at premium assets, have supported performance, despite sector headwinds. Leadership transition and acquisition activity further influenced sentiment, with shares outperforming peers on select trading days.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FR and SPG represent contrasting REIT subsectors: industrial logistics versus retail malls. FR's business model emphasizes development and leasing in supply-chain hubs, with growth drivers like e-commerce demand and low vacancy (6.7%), though exposed to construction cycles and activist pressures. SPG leverages a vast premium retail portfolio for stable occupancy, benefiting from experiential shopping trends but vulnerable to consumer spending shifts.
Recent momentum favors FR slightly on monthly gains (3.84% vs. 0.7%), but SPG edges on scale ($77B market cap vs. $8.6B) and yield (4.3% vs. 3.2%). Risk profiles differ: FR's beta of 1.09 indicates lower volatility than SPG's 1.36, yet retail faces e-commerce erosion while industrial enjoys structural tailwinds. Valuations highlight SPG's appeal at a P/E of 14.3 versus FR's 24.2. Sentiment tilts positive for both amid REIT recovery, with SPG drawing earnings buzz.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward SPG, citing its superior scale, higher dividend yield, lower P/E valuation, and resilient retail positioning amid stabilizing consumer trends. While FR offers industrial growth stability and recent leasing strength, SPG's broader portfolio and income profile provide a probabilistic edge in the prevailing market environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FR is a StrongBuy and SPG is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSPG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- FR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FR (@Miscellaneous Manufacturing) experienced а +3.23% price change this week, while SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was +5.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry was +3.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.58%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was +3.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.95%.
Reported Earning Dates
FR is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Miscellaneous Manufacturing (+3.31% weekly)Miscellaneous manufacturing refers to a diverse range of products that cannot readily be categorized into other specific sectors of manufacturing. Major U.S. players in this industry include AMETEK, Inc.( analytical instruments, precision components and specialty materials), Dover Corporation (solutions for efficiency and safety of extracting oil and gas, e.g. rod lifts, progressing cavity pumps, gas lifts etc.; solutions for the transportation/transformation of solid waste; products for safe handling of critical fluids for various industries; systems for commercial-refrigeration, heating and cooling, and food and beverage packaging), and Carlisle Companies Incorporated (niche markets including commercial roofing, energy, lawn and garden, mining and construction equipment, aerospace and electronics, dining and food delivery, and healthcare), among others.
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (+3.49% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
| FR | SPG | FR / SPG | |
| Capitalization | 8.43B | 71B | 12% |
| EBITDA | 633M | 8.23B | 8% |
| Gain YTD | 11.978 | 21.008 | 57% |
| P/E Ratio | 24.54 | 15.23 | 161% |
| Revenue | 745M | 6.65B | 11% |
| Total Cash | 37.1M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 2.58B | 29B | 9% |
FR | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 64 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 15 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 5 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FR's Valuation (14) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for SPG (96). This means that FR’s stock grew significantly faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FR (50). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to FR’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (11) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FR (64). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than FR’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FR (47). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to FR’s over the last 12 months.
FR's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (88). This means that FR’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| FR | SPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 46% | 14 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 39% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 38% | 3 days ago 50% |
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FR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FR has been closely correlated with EGP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FR jumps, then EGP could also see price increases.
SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with FR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then FR could also see price increases.