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FR vs SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- FR and SPG are both equity real estate investment trusts (REITs), but they operate in sharply different property sectors: industrial logistics versus retail malls and outlets.
- Both companies posted strong 2025 results, with FR growing full-year FFO (funds from operations) about 12% and SPG reporting record annual FFO.
- SPG carries a larger scale, a higher dividend yield, and an "A" credit rating, while FR offers faster cash rent growth tied to logistics demand.
- FR has drawn activist attention aimed at narrowing a perceived valuation gap, whereas SPG has benefited from insider buying and Taubman integration momentum.
- Their relative performance reflects different drivers: e-commerce and supply-chain real estate for FR, versus retail traffic and tenant sales for SPG.
2) Introduction
Investors weighing commercial real estate exposure often face a choice between fast-growing industrial assets and cash-generative retail properties. This stock comparison examines FR, First Industrial Realty Trust, an industrial and logistics REIT, alongside SPG, Simon Property Group, a global owner of premier shopping, dining, and mixed-use destinations. Both are prominent income-oriented equities, yet their business models, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. Income investors, sector allocators, and those tracking AI-driven trading signals may find this relative performance analysis useful for understanding how the two names are positioned in the current market environment and where their respective strengths and trade-offs lie.
3) FR Overview and Recent Performance
FR (First Industrial Realty Trust) is a self-administered, fully integrated REIT focused on owning, developing, and managing industrial warehouses and logistics facilities across major U.S. markets. Recent market activity has reflected firm operating momentum: the company grew NAREIT FFO per share from $0.71 to $0.77 in the fourth quarter and raised full-year FFO from $2.65 to $2.96 per share. Cash rental rate growth on new and renewal leases reached roughly 32% for 2025, and same-store NOI (net operating income, a core REIT profitability measure) rose about 7.1% for the year.
Sentiment has also been shaped by an activist campaign from Land & Buildings, which publicly argued the company trades below the value of its warehouse assets and urged asset sales and a strategic review. Around the same period, the board declared a 12.4% dividend increase to $0.50 per share, signaling confidence in cash flow. Management guided 2026 FFO to a midpoint near $3.14 per share with same-store NOI growth of 5% to 6%, while remaining cautious about new supply and lease-up execution.
4) SPG Overview and Recent Performance
SPG (Simon Property Group) is an S&P 100 REIT that owns premier shopping centers, premium outlets, and mixed-use destinations across North America, Europe, and Asia. Its recent performance has been anchored by record financial results: fourth-quarter FFO reached $3.49 per share, and full-year FFO set a record of $12.73 per share. Domestic property NOI grew 4.8% for the quarter, occupancy held near 96.4%, and retailer sales per square foot climbed about 8.1% to $799.
Investor sentiment has been supported by insider buying from a director and positive commentary on the integration of Taubman Realty Group, a wholly owned subsidiary. The company increased its quarterly dividend 4.8% to $2.20 per share and ended 2025 with roughly $9.1 billion in liquidity and investment-grade credit ratings (A from S&P and A3 from Moody's). Management guided 2026 FFO to between $13.00 and $13.25 per share, reflecting confidence in traffic and tenant sales trends.
5) Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large and growing library of AI-powered trading bots, with hundreds of automated robots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers across varied strategies, timeframes, and risk profiles. Rather than surfacing every available bot, Tickeron curates only the strongest performers into its Trending AI Robots section, where bots are evaluated for how well they fit current market conditions. Each bot operates with its own trading style, performance statistics, and basket of tickers, so no two are identical. Traders and investors comparing names such as FR and SPG can explore these AI signals to see which setups are currently favored. To review the curated selection, visit Trending AI Robots.
6) Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two REITs is sector exposure. FR is tied to logistics and e-commerce, a structural growth theme driven by warehouse demand, tight supply, and powerful rent mark-to-market potential. SPG, by contrast, depends on consumer spending, foot traffic, and tenant sales at its malls and outlets, making it more sensitive to retail cycles and discretionary demand.
Scale and balance-sheet strength also differ. SPG is far larger, holds an "A"-rated balance sheet, and offers a higher dividend yield with a long record of payout increases. FR is smaller and carries more development exposure, which can boost growth but also introduces lease-up and construction risk. On momentum, FR has posted exceptional cash rent growth and attracted activist support, while SPG has delivered record FFO and re-rated toward the upside with insider buying. Risk-wise, FR faces potential industrial supply normalization, while SPG faces retail bankruptcies and elevated redevelopment spending.
7) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely view both names as fundamentally sound but would lean toward SPG for its steadier, more diversified cash flows, stronger credit profile, and larger, more liquid trading base. The company's record FFO, high occupancy, and insider buying suggest durable, high-conviction positioning. That said, FR presents a more dynamic growth profile, with superior rent spreads and an activist catalyst that could compress its valuation gap. The AI's preference would likely depend on the prevailing market regime: favoring FR in momentum-driven conditions and SPG when stability and yield take precedence.
8) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FR is a Hold and SPG is a Buy.
FR's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for FR entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 168 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 87 of the 168 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 52%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FR as a result. In 41 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FR turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.
The 50-day moving average for FR moved below the 200-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for FR's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 27 of 61 cases where FR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Following a +2.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FR advanced for three days, in 163 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
FR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.641) is normal, around the industry mean (2.540). P/E Ratio (20.105) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.274). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.120) is also within normal values, averaging (11.190). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.050) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.718) is also within normal values, averaging (8.208).
SPG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPG turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SPG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPG as a result. In 67 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
SPG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPG advanced for three days, in 191 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
SPG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SPG entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SPG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SPG's P/B Ratio (15.613) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.646). P/E Ratio (14.964) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.201). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.576) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.042) settles around the average of (305.774) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.515) is also within normal values, averaging (6.739).
FR | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 76 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FR's Valuation (78) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as SPG (100). This means that FR’s stock grew similarly to SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FR (71). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than FR’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (12) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FR (60). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than FR’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FR (58). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to FR’s over the last 12 months.
FR's P/E Growth Rating (76) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as SPG (87). This means that FR’s stock grew similarly to SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| FR | SPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 8 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 48% | 10 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SPG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FR (@Miscellaneous Manufacturing) experienced а -5.94% price change this week, while SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was +4.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry was +2.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.96%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was +0.90%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
FR is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Miscellaneous Manufacturing (+2.01% weekly)Miscellaneous manufacturing refers to a diverse range of products that cannot readily be categorized into other specific sectors of manufacturing. Major U.S. players in this industry include AMETEK, Inc.( analytical instruments, precision components and specialty materials), Dover Corporation (solutions for efficiency and safety of extracting oil and gas, e.g. rod lifts, progressing cavity pumps, gas lifts etc.; solutions for the transportation/transformation of solid waste; products for safe handling of critical fluids for various industries; systems for commercial-refrigeration, heating and cooling, and food and beverage packaging), and Carlisle Companies Incorporated (niche markets including commercial roofing, energy, lawn and garden, mining and construction equipment, aerospace and electronics, dining and food delivery, and healthcare), among others.
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (+0.90% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
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FR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FR has been closely correlated with PLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FR jumps, then PLD could also see price increases.
SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with CUZ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then CUZ could also see price increases.
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