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FBIZ vs OVLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Business Financial Services (FBIZ) vs. Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FBIZ (First Business Financial Services) and OVLY (Oak Valley Bancorp) are both small-cap regional bank holding companies, but they serve very different geographic and customer bases.
- FBIZ has delivered stronger recent momentum, with a roughly 28% year-to-date gain compared with a mid-teens advance for OVLY.
- FBIZ trades at a lower valuation on earnings (about 10–11x) and posts a higher return on equity (ROE), while OVLY offers a higher dividend yield and lower beta (a measure of volatility versus the market).
- Both banks are heavily weighted toward commercial real estate and commercial lending, making credit quality and interest-rate trends central risk factors.
- Neither stock is a high-liquidity name; average daily trading volume is modest, which can amplify short-term price swings.
Introduction
Investors evaluating community and regional banks often compare names of similar size and business mix to gauge relative value, momentum, and risk. FBIZ, the parent of First Business Bank in Wisconsin, and OVLY, the parent of Oak Valley Community Bank in California, are both well-established, conservatively run bank holding companies. Yet their recent performance, valuation, and market positioning have diverged in notable ways. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors and traders interested in the regional-banking sector, dividend-paying micro-cap equities, or in understanding how AI-driven analysis might rank two otherwise similar financial institutions under current market conditions.
FBIZ Overview and Recent Performance
First Business Financial Services, Inc. (FBIZ) is a Madison, Wisconsin-based bank holding company operating as a full-service business bank. Its model is centered on commercial banking products, including commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate lending, catering primarily to businesses rather than a broad retail customer base.
In recent market activity, FBIZ has traded near the upper end of its 52-week range, which spans roughly $48 to $74. The stock has posted a year-to-date gain of about 28% and a one-year advance above 40%, reflecting sustained positive momentum. Fundamentals have supported the move: the company carries a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 10–11, a dividend yield around 1.9%, and a return on equity (ROE) in the mid-teens, which compares favorably within its peer group. Sentiment has been reinforced by steady earnings delivery and a relatively low beta near 0.7, indicating the stock has been less volatile than the broader market while still participating meaningfully in the sector rally.
OVLY Overview and Recent Performance
Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) is a bank holding company headquartered in Oakdale, California, operating through Oak Valley Community Bank. Founded in 1990, the institution serves individuals and small- to medium-sized businesses across California's Central Valley and Eastern Sierra regions through a network of roughly 19 full-service branches. Its lending mix leans heavily toward commercial real estate, commercial business loans, and SBA (Small Business Administration) lending.
Over recent weeks, OVLY has traded in the low-to-mid $30s, within a 52-week range of about $26 to $36. Its year-to-date return has been in the mid-teens, with a one-year gain near 30%, though its shorter-term performance has been flatter, with a slight pullback over the past month. The company trades at a P/E ratio near 12, carries a dividend yield around 2.2%, and reports a return on equity near 11–12%. A very low beta near 0.2 reflects the stock's notably low volatility relative to the market, a characteristic that can appeal to defensive, income-oriented investors but also suggests more muted upside participation during broad rallies.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both FBIZ and OVLY are regional banks, their business models differ in focus and geography. FBIZ operates as a business-centric lender concentrated in the upper Midwest, while OVLY is a community bank rooted in California's Central Valley with a broader retail-and-SBA orientation.
On momentum, FBIZ holds the advantage, having delivered roughly double the year-to-date return of OVLY and trading near its 52-week high. On valuation and efficiency, FBIZ also compares favorably, with a lower P/E ratio and a higher ROE. By contrast, OVLY offers a more generous dividend yield and meaningfully lower volatility, traits that may suit income-focused or risk-averse investors.
Risk profiles also differ. Both institutions carry meaningful exposure to commercial real estate, a segment sensitive to property values and interest rates. OVLY's concentration in a single California region introduces geographic concentration risk, while FBIZ's faster appreciation leaves it more vulnerable to profit-taking. Liquidity is limited for both micro-cap names, though FBIZ generally sees higher trading volume than OVLY.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative performance, valuation, and return on equity, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward FBIZ in the current environment. The stock's stronger and more consistent momentum, higher ROE, and more attractive earnings multiple give it an edge in relative positioning. That said, the assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: OVLY's lower volatility and higher yield could appeal under different market regimes, and either name could shift its ranking if momentum, credit trends, or interest-rate expectations change. As with any systematic signal, the AI's preference reflects a current snapshot of data rather than a guarantee of future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FBIZ is a Buy and OVLY is a Buy.
FBIZ's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FBIZ turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where FBIZ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FBIZ as a result. In 57 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
FBIZ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FBIZ advanced for three days, in 186 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for FBIZ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FBIZ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
FBIZ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FBIZ entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FBIZ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.583) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.052) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.130) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.301) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
OVLY in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026
OVLY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 17 of 25 cases where OVLY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 37 of 60 cases where OVLY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
OVLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OVLY advanced for three days, in 148 of 252 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on OVLY as a result. In 57 of 110 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The 10-day moving average for OVLY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OVLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Aroon Indicator for OVLY entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.328) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (12.060) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.210) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.408) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OVLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
FBIZ | OVLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 55 Fair valued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OVLY's Valuation (47) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FBIZ (55) in the Financial Conglomerates industry. This means that OVLY’s stock grew similarly to FBIZ’s over the last 12 months.
FBIZ's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as OVLY (17) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that FBIZ’s stock grew similarly to OVLY’s over the last 12 months.
FBIZ's SMR Rating (31) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as OVLY (46) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that FBIZ’s stock grew similarly to OVLY’s over the last 12 months.
FBIZ's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as OVLY (48) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that FBIZ’s stock grew similarly to OVLY’s over the last 12 months.
OVLY's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FBIZ (18) in the Financial Conglomerates industry. This means that OVLY’s stock grew similarly to FBIZ’s over the last 12 months.
| FBIZ | OVLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 42% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 39% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FBIZ’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while OVLY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FBIZ’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- OVLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FBIZ’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OVLY’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FBIZ’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- OVLY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
FBIZ (@Regional Banks) experienced а +3.45% price change this week, while OVLY (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
FBIZ is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
OVLY is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.71% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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OVLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OVLY has been closely correlated with PKBK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OVLY jumps, then PKBK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To OVLY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVLY | 100% | +3.04% | ||
| PKBK - OVLY | 69% Closely correlated | +2.25% | ||
| FBIZ - OVLY | 67% Closely correlated | +2.26% | ||
| CCNE - OVLY | 67% Closely correlated | +2.03% | ||
| FMBH - OVLY | 67% Closely correlated | +2.76% | ||
| PLBC - OVLY | 67% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| LOWV | 85.27 | -0.31 | -0.36% |
| AB US Low Volatility Equity ETF (LOWV) | |||
| PCEF | 19.08 | -0.18 | -0.93% |
| Invesco CEF Income Composite ETF (PCEF) | |||
| SCHE | 34.95 | -0.83 | -2.32% |
| Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE) | |||
| BOEG | 9.39 | -0.49 | -4.92% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long BA Daily ETF (BOEG) | |||
| NODE | 31.92 | -2.20 | -6.44% |
| VanEck Onchain Economy ETF (NODE) | |||