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FPI vs FR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI) vs. First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FPI is a small-cap farmland REIT focused on U.S. cropland, while FR is a large-cap industrial logistics REIT with a national footprint.
- The two companies operate in sharply different real estate niches, exposing investors to very different demand drivers and risk profiles.
- FR has demonstrated stronger recent momentum in fundamentals, including rising rents, improved occupancy, and raised guidance.
- FPI has faced softer agricultural conditions, asset dispositions, and reduced funds-from-operations guidance.
- Both stocks offer comparable dividend yields near 3.4%, but their growth trajectories and volatility profiles diverge considerably.
Introduction
Investors evaluating real estate investment trusts (REITs, companies that own and operate income-producing property) often weigh diversification against growth. This stock comparison examines FPI and FR, two publicly traded REITs that anchor very different corners of the property market. Farmland Partners Inc. concentrates on North American agricultural land, while First Industrial Realty Trust owns and develops logistics warehouses. Their relative performance and market positioning offer a useful lens for traders weighing defensive, inflation-linked assets against growth-oriented industrial real estate in the current environment.
FPI Overview and Recent Performance
Farmland Partners Inc. is an internally managed REIT that owns roughly 70,400 acres of farmland across 11 U.S. states and also originates loans to farmers secured by agricultural assets. Its portfolio spans row crops and permanent crops, with exposure to markets such as Illinois, Arkansas, California, and Nebraska.
In recent market activity, FPI has traded in a relatively modest range, with a market capitalization near $450 million and a beta (a measure of volatility versus the broader market) well below 1.0, reflecting its defensive character. Recent quarters have featured asset sales as part of a strategy to crystallize land value and reduce leverage. The company also redeemed its outstanding preferred units using incremental debt, lifting total borrowings. Meanwhile, funds from operations (FFO, a key REIT earnings metric that adds back depreciation) guidance was trimmed, and management has cited softer conditions for certain permanent-crop assets, particularly in California, alongside broader commodity price pressure. These factors have contributed to a cautious analyst posture and modest downward revisions to price targets in recent weeks.
FR Overview and Recent Performance
First Industrial Realty Trust is a U.S.-focused owner, operator, developer, and acquirer of logistics properties, with roughly 72 million square feet concentrated across 15 target metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs, or major urban markets). Its tenant base includes multinational corporations and regional supply-chain operators.
FR carries a market capitalization near $8 billion and a beta near 1.0. Recent quarters have shown improving fundamentals: occupancy reached about 94.9%, cash rental rates on signed new and renewal leases rose roughly 39%, and same-store net operating income (NOI, or property-level income before financing and corporate costs) grew solidly. Management raised its full-year FFO guidance and increased its dividend by 12.4% to $0.50 per share quarterly. The company also authorized a $250 million share repurchase program amid a contested proxy campaign, while continuing to advance its development pipeline. This momentum contrasts with the more muted backdrop facing FPI.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast is business model and sector exposure. FPI derives income from agricultural rents and farm loans, tying its performance to crop prices, farmland values, and regional weather conditions. FR depends on logistics demand, e-commerce, supply-chain reshoring, and industrial construction cycles. These drivers rarely move in tandem, making the two names complementary from a portfolio-construction perspective rather than direct substitutes.
On growth drivers, FR currently shows clearer catalysts: rising cash rents, higher occupancy, an active development pipeline, and shareholder-friendly capital returns. FPI, by contrast, is managing through asset sales, elevated debt following its preferred redemption, and softer permanent-crop fundamentals. On risk factors, FPI carries lower market beta and inflation-linked land collateral but faces concentration in agricultural markets. FR faces supply-and-demand swings in industrial space and higher sensitivity to interest rates and broader market moves.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, fundamental momentum, and catalyst positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor FR in the current environment. The stock's improving occupancy, substantial rental-rate growth, raised guidance, and rising dividend reflect a more consistent positive trajectory than FPI, which faces guidance reductions and agricultural headwinds. That said, FPI's lower volatility and inflation-sensitive land holdings may appeal to more defensive positioning. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current market conditions rather than a definitive prediction of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FPI is a Hold and FR is a Hold.
FPI in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
The 10-day moving average for FPI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FPI as a result. In 39 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FPI turned negative on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 21 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.
FPI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FPI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
FPI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FPI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FPI advanced for three days, in 164 of 282 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 131 of 223 cases where FPI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FPI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.948) is normal, around the industry mean (1.757). P/E Ratio (18.182) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.005). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.020) is also within normal values, averaging (2.612). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. FPI's P/S Ratio (9.606) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.594).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FPI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
FR's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for FR entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 168 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 87 of the 168 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 52%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FR as a result. In 41 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FR turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.
The 50-day moving average for FR moved below the 200-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for FR's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 27 of 61 cases where FR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Following a +2.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FR advanced for three days, in 163 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
FR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.641) is normal, around the industry mean (2.540). P/E Ratio (20.105) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.274). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.120) is also within normal values, averaging (11.190). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.050) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.718) is also within normal values, averaging (8.208).
FPI | FR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 98 | 71 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 83 | 60 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 76 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FPI's Valuation (70) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FR (78). This means that FPI’s stock grew similarly to FR’s over the last 12 months.
FR's Profit vs Risk Rating (71) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FPI (98). This means that FR’s stock grew similarly to FPI’s over the last 12 months.
FR's SMR Rating (60) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FPI (83). This means that FR’s stock grew similarly to FPI’s over the last 12 months.
FR's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FPI (60). This means that FR’s stock grew similarly to FPI’s over the last 12 months.
FPI's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for FR (76). This means that FPI’s stock grew significantly faster than FR’s over the last 12 months.
| FPI | FR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 44% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 44% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 53% | 5 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FPI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while FR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- FPI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- FR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FPI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- FR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FPI (@Specialty Telecommunications) experienced а -5.21% price change this week, while FR (@Miscellaneous Manufacturing) price change was -5.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Telecommunications industry was -1.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.04%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry was +1.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
FPI is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
FR is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Specialty Telecommunications (-1.13% weekly)Companies belonging to the specialty telecommunications sector provide voice and data transmission via a single method, such as fixed lines, digital subscriber lines (DSL), wireless technology, the internet or competitive local exchange carriers. Telefonica, Liberty Broadband Corp., and Zayo Group Holdings, Inc. are some of the big specialty telecom companies in the U.S.
@Miscellaneous Manufacturing (+1.97% weekly)Miscellaneous manufacturing refers to a diverse range of products that cannot readily be categorized into other specific sectors of manufacturing. Major U.S. players in this industry include AMETEK, Inc.( analytical instruments, precision components and specialty materials), Dover Corporation (solutions for efficiency and safety of extracting oil and gas, e.g. rod lifts, progressing cavity pumps, gas lifts etc.; solutions for the transportation/transformation of solid waste; products for safe handling of critical fluids for various industries; systems for commercial-refrigeration, heating and cooling, and food and beverage packaging), and Carlisle Companies Incorporated (niche markets including commercial roofing, energy, lawn and garden, mining and construction equipment, aerospace and electronics, dining and food delivery, and healthcare), among others.
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FPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FPI has been loosely correlated with LAND. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FPI jumps, then LAND could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FPI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 100% | +1.63% | ||
| LAND - FPI | 64% Loosely correlated | +2.56% | ||
| STAG - FPI | 43% Loosely correlated | +0.14% | ||
| EGP - FPI | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.30% | ||
| FR - FPI | 42% Loosely correlated | -6.92% | ||
| IVT - FPI | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.55% | ||
More | ||||
FR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FR has been closely correlated with PLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FR jumps, then PLD could also see price increases.