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GGB vs SID
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Gerdau S.A. (GGB) vs. Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GGB (Gerdau S.A.) has outperformed recently, supported by resilient North American demand and a strong, low-leverage balance sheet.
- SID (Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, or CSN) is a diversified steel, mining, cement, logistics, and energy group, but faces elevated leverage and consecutive quarterly losses.
- GGB's net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of roughly 0.69x contrasts sharply with SID's approximately 3.5x, a key driver of differing market positioning.
- Both companies face pressure from cheap Chinese steel imports into Brazil, but GGB's geographic diversification cushions this exposure more effectively.
- SID's recent CEO transition and asset-sale program have lifted sentiment, while GGB benefits from steadier earnings momentum.
- On observable trend and stability factors, GGB currently presents a more consistent relative-performance profile than SID.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two of Brazil's most prominent steel producers that trade on the New York Stock Exchange as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). GGB, or Gerdau S.A., is a globally diversified long-steel producer with heavy exposure to the United States, while SID, or Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN), operates an integrated portfolio spanning steel, iron-ore mining, cement, logistics, and energy. The comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and risk within the cyclical steel sector. Although both names sit in the same industry, their financial profiles, momentum, and catalysts have diverged meaningfully in recent weeks, making the contrast instructive for those weighing quality, stability, and recovery potential.
GGB Overview and Recent Performance
Gerdau S.A. is one of the largest steel producers in the Americas, operating across Brazil, North America, and South America, with a specialty focus on long steel, structural beams, and special steels. Recent market activity has favored GGB, with the ADR advancing meaningfully over recent months and roughly 38% year to date, bringing its market capitalization to around $9 billion. Sentiment has been driven by resilient North American demand tied to data centers, renewable energy, infrastructure, and industrial construction, which now accounts for more than 70% of the company's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). In its most recent quarterly report, Gerdau posted its strongest consolidated adjusted EBITDA since late 2023, supported by a healthy balance sheet with net-debt-to-EBITDA near 0.69x and continued shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. The primary overhang remains weak Brazilian pricing pressure from imported steel.
SID Overview and Recent Performance
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional is a diversified industrial group whose operations include integrated steel production, iron-ore mining through its CSN Mineração unit, cement, logistics, and energy. Unlike Gerdau's cleaner momentum, SID has navigated a more turbulent period. The company has recorded ten consecutive quarterly net losses as it grapples with elevated debt and rising financing costs, with net-debt-to-EBITDA around 3.5x and a credit rating downgrade into the CCC+ range. In response, CSN has pursued a debt exchange, announced an asset-sale program that could raise up to R$18 billion, and initiated a leadership transition in which longtime CEO Benjamin Steinbruch stepped down in favor of former Vale executive Fabio Schvartsman. These restructuring moves sparked a rally in CSN's shares and bonds. Operationally, record cement EBITDA and strong mining volumes have been offset by weakness in steel and a roughly 50% decline in the ADR over the past year, leaving SID with a negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The sharpest contrast between these two steelmakers is balance-sheet quality and earnings consistency. GGB carries minimal leverage, generates positive net income, and returns cash to shareholders, while SID remains loss-making with materially higher debt and a more urgent deleveraging agenda. On growth drivers, GGB leans on North American construction and manufacturing demand, whereas SID's diversified model exposes it to both steel spreads and volatile iron-ore prices, which have hovered near multi-year lows. Risk factors also differ: GGB's primary threat is imported-steel competition in Brazil, while SID's dominant risks are financial leverage and refinancing costs. In terms of recent momentum and market sentiment, GGB has shown relative stability and an uptrend, while SID's move has been more event-driven, reacting to restructuring headlines and leadership changes rather than sustained earnings improvement.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, earnings momentum, and relative positioning — Tickeron's AI framework would currently lean toward GGB over SID. GGB's lower leverage, positive profitability, geographic diversification, and steadier price trend present a more favorable alignment of trend and stability signals. SID's restructuring catalysts offer meaningful recovery potential, but its negative earnings, elevated debt, and event-dependent price action make its outlook less predictable. Under a probabilistic, momentum-and-quality-oriented model, GGB appears the more consistent candidate, though the assessment could shift if SID's deleveraging and management transition translate into sustained operational improvement.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GGB is a StrongBuy and SID is a Hold.
GGB's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for GGB moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 29 of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 58 cases where GGB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +5.71% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GGB advanced for three days, in 206 of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
GGB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GGB as a result. In 52 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GGB turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 57%.
GGB moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GGB crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GGB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for GGB entered a downward trend on November 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.160) is normal, around the industry mean (2.084). P/E Ratio (3.809) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.382). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.038) settles around the average of (0.073) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.729) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GGB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
SID in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SID crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 19 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SID as a result. In 68 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SID turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 79%.
SID moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SID declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator for SID entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SID's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 62 cases where SID's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +9.59% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SID advanced for three days, in 177 of 240 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
SID may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.093) is normal, around the industry mean (2.084). P/E Ratio (-0.430) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.382). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). SID's Dividend Yield (0.879) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.073). P/S Ratio (0.183) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SID’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SID’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.
GGB | SID | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 52 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 95 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 82 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SID's Valuation (4) in the Steel industry is in the same range as GGB (9). This means that SID’s stock grew similarly to GGB’s over the last 12 months.
GGB's Profit vs Risk Rating (49) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SID (100). This means that GGB’s stock grew somewhat faster than SID’s over the last 12 months.
GGB's SMR Rating (84) in the Steel industry is in the same range as SID (95). This means that GGB’s stock grew similarly to SID’s over the last 12 months.
GGB's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Steel industry is in the same range as SID (82). This means that GGB’s stock grew similarly to SID’s over the last 12 months.
SID's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Steel industry is significantly better than the same rating for GGB (96). This means that SID’s stock grew significantly faster than GGB’s over the last 12 months.
| GGB | SID | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 6 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 83% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GGB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SID’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GGB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SID’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GGB’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SID’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GGB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SID’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
GGB (@Steel) experienced а -0.64% price change this week, while SID (@Steel) price change was +13.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +0.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.72%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
GGB is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
SID is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (+0.74% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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GGB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GGB has been loosely correlated with TX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GGB jumps, then TX could also see price increases.
SID and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SID has been loosely correlated with GGB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SID jumps, then GGB could also see price increases.
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