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GGB vs SID
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Gerdau S.A. (GGB) vs. Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GGB (Gerdau S.A.) has outperformed recently, supported by resilient North American demand and a strong, low-leverage balance sheet.
- SID (Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, or CSN) is a diversified steel, mining, cement, logistics, and energy group, but faces elevated leverage and consecutive quarterly losses.
- GGB's net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of roughly 0.69x contrasts sharply with SID's approximately 3.5x, a key driver of differing market positioning.
- Both companies face pressure from cheap Chinese steel imports into Brazil, but GGB's geographic diversification cushions this exposure more effectively.
- SID's recent CEO transition and asset-sale program have lifted sentiment, while GGB benefits from steadier earnings momentum.
- On observable trend and stability factors, GGB currently presents a more consistent relative-performance profile than SID.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two of Brazil's most prominent steel producers that trade on the New York Stock Exchange as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). GGB, or Gerdau S.A., is a globally diversified long-steel producer with heavy exposure to the United States, while SID, or Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN), operates an integrated portfolio spanning steel, iron-ore mining, cement, logistics, and energy. The comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and risk within the cyclical steel sector. Although both names sit in the same industry, their financial profiles, momentum, and catalysts have diverged meaningfully in recent weeks, making the contrast instructive for those weighing quality, stability, and recovery potential.
GGB Overview and Recent Performance
Gerdau S.A. is one of the largest steel producers in the Americas, operating across Brazil, North America, and South America, with a specialty focus on long steel, structural beams, and special steels. Recent market activity has favored GGB, with the ADR advancing meaningfully over recent months and roughly 38% year to date, bringing its market capitalization to around $9 billion. Sentiment has been driven by resilient North American demand tied to data centers, renewable energy, infrastructure, and industrial construction, which now accounts for more than 70% of the company's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). In its most recent quarterly report, Gerdau posted its strongest consolidated adjusted EBITDA since late 2023, supported by a healthy balance sheet with net-debt-to-EBITDA near 0.69x and continued shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. The primary overhang remains weak Brazilian pricing pressure from imported steel.
SID Overview and Recent Performance
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional is a diversified industrial group whose operations include integrated steel production, iron-ore mining through its CSN Mineração unit, cement, logistics, and energy. Unlike Gerdau's cleaner momentum, SID has navigated a more turbulent period. The company has recorded ten consecutive quarterly net losses as it grapples with elevated debt and rising financing costs, with net-debt-to-EBITDA around 3.5x and a credit rating downgrade into the CCC+ range. In response, CSN has pursued a debt exchange, announced an asset-sale program that could raise up to R$18 billion, and initiated a leadership transition in which longtime CEO Benjamin Steinbruch stepped down in favor of former Vale executive Fabio Schvartsman. These restructuring moves sparked a rally in CSN's shares and bonds. Operationally, record cement EBITDA and strong mining volumes have been offset by weakness in steel and a roughly 50% decline in the ADR over the past year, leaving SID with a negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The sharpest contrast between these two steelmakers is balance-sheet quality and earnings consistency. GGB carries minimal leverage, generates positive net income, and returns cash to shareholders, while SID remains loss-making with materially higher debt and a more urgent deleveraging agenda. On growth drivers, GGB leans on North American construction and manufacturing demand, whereas SID's diversified model exposes it to both steel spreads and volatile iron-ore prices, which have hovered near multi-year lows. Risk factors also differ: GGB's primary threat is imported-steel competition in Brazil, while SID's dominant risks are financial leverage and refinancing costs. In terms of recent momentum and market sentiment, GGB has shown relative stability and an uptrend, while SID's move has been more event-driven, reacting to restructuring headlines and leadership changes rather than sustained earnings improvement.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, earnings momentum, and relative positioning — Tickeron's AI framework would currently lean toward GGB over SID. GGB's lower leverage, positive profitability, geographic diversification, and steadier price trend present a more favorable alignment of trend and stability signals. SID's restructuring catalysts offer meaningful recovery potential, but its negative earnings, elevated debt, and event-dependent price action make its outlook less predictable. Under a probabilistic, momentum-and-quality-oriented model, GGB appears the more consistent candidate, though the assessment could shift if SID's deleveraging and management transition translate into sustained operational improvement.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GGB is a StrongBuy and SID is a Hold.
Aroon Indicator for GGB shows an upward move is likely
GGB's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 07, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 276 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 228 of the 276 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GGB as a result. In 66 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GGB just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where GGB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
GGB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GGB advanced for three days, in 204 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
GGB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GGB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.192) is normal, around the industry mean (2.230). P/E Ratio (4.557) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.367). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.057) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.729) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GGB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
SID in -8.26% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 16, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where SID declined for three days, in 248 of 300 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SID as a result. In 66 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SID turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
SID moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The Aroon Indicator for SID entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SID advanced for three days, in 174 of 238 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.120) is normal, around the industry mean (2.230). P/E Ratio (-0.555) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.367). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). SID's Dividend Yield (0.680) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.057). P/S Ratio (0.183) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SID’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SID’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
GGB | SID | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 95 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 59 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SID's Valuation (4) in the Steel industry is in the same range as GGB (9). This means that SID’s stock grew similarly to GGB’s over the last 12 months.
GGB's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SID (100). This means that GGB’s stock grew somewhat faster than SID’s over the last 12 months.
GGB's SMR Rating (84) in the Steel industry is in the same range as SID (95). This means that GGB’s stock grew similarly to SID’s over the last 12 months.
GGB's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Steel industry is in the same range as SID (56). This means that GGB’s stock grew similarly to SID’s over the last 12 months.
SID's P/E Growth Rating (59) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GGB (93). This means that SID’s stock grew somewhat faster than GGB’s over the last 12 months.
| GGB | SID | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 63% | 7 days ago 83% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GGB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SID’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GGB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SID’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GGB’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SID’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GGB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- SID’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GGB (@Steel) experienced а +1.35% price change this week, while SID (@Steel) price change was -9.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
GGB is expected to report earnings on Oct 26, 2026.
SID is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (-2.63% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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GGB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GGB has been loosely correlated with SID. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GGB jumps, then SID could also see price increases.
SID and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SID has been loosely correlated with GGB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SID jumps, then GGB could also see price increases.