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GGB vs STLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Gerdau (GGB) vs. Steel Dynamics (STLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GGB is a Brazilian multinational steel producer trading near its 52-week high, with market sentiment recently supported by strong North American operations and a low-leverage balance sheet.
- STLD is a larger, U.S.-focused mini-mill operator and metal recycler that posted record steel shipments and is ramping a new aluminum platform.
- On profitability metrics, STLD has generally generated higher margins and returns on equity, while GGB has traded at lower valuation multiples and carries lower debt relative to earnings.
- The two stocks differ sharply in geography, with GGB exposed to Brazilian currency and demand risk and STLD concentrated in U.S. markets.
- Both companies benefit from resilient construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing demand, though their growth catalysts are distinct.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two well-known names in the steel and metals sector: Gerdau S.A. (GGB) and Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD). Although both produce steel using electric-arc furnace (EAF) technology, which melts recycled scrap, they operate in different regions and serve somewhat different product mixes. Investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning may find this comparison useful for weighing a lower-valuation, Brazil-anchored producer against a higher-margin, U.S.-centric industrial metals company. The contrast spans business model, growth drivers, currency exposure, and recent momentum, making the pair a practical case study for both experienced investors and those newer to materials equities.
GGB Overview and Recent Performance
Gerdau S.A. is a Brazilian multinational steel producer and one of the leading long-steel producers in the Americas, with operations spanning Brazil, North America, and South America. Its product mix includes rebar, wire rod, structural shapes, and special bar quality (SBQ) steel used in construction, automotive, and industrial applications. In recent weeks, GGB shares have traded near the upper end of their 52-week range, reflecting a period of positive relative performance for the steel sector.
Recent results have been driven largely by the company's North American business, where resilient demand and higher realized prices supported improved adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). Management has cited order backlogs in renewable energy, data centers, and infrastructure as supportive factors. Brazil operations have improved more modestly, with high steel imports and currency fluctuations remaining headwinds. The company maintains a conservative balance sheet, with net debt-to-EBITDA below 1x, and has continued returning capital through dividends and buybacks. Analysts' ratings have been mixed in the recent period, with some firms raising price targets while others moved to neutral, reflecting caution after the stock's appreciation.
STLD Overview and Recent Performance
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metal recyclers in North America, headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana. The company operates a vertically integrated, circular manufacturing model across steel, metals recycling, and steel fabrication segments, and it has recently expanded into aluminum flat-rolled products. In recent quarters, STLD reported record steel shipments and improved realized pricing, with demand strength across non-residential construction, energy, automotive, and industrial end markets.
A key development has been the ongoing ramp of its Columbus, Mississippi aluminum mill and a related Mexico-based recycled aluminum slab facility. This expansion diversifies the company beyond steel into the beverage can, automotive, and industrial sectors. The steel fabrication order backlog has also risen materially year over year, supporting visibility into future shipments. Like its peer, STLD has returned cash to shareholders through a growing dividend and share repurchases. Startup costs tied to the aluminum ramp have been a near-term margin consideration, but management has expressed confidence in higher volumes ahead.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is geographic exposure. STLD is almost entirely U.S.-focused, giving it direct exposure to domestic infrastructure spending, reshoring, and trade policy while avoiding foreign-exchange translation risk. GGB, by contrast, blends a North American business with significant Brazilian and South American operations, exposing it to the Brazilian real, local interest rates, and import competition.
On profitability and market positioning, STLD has generally posted higher operating margins and stronger returns on equity, supported by value-added flat-rolled and fabrication products plus its emerging aluminum segment. GGB has typically traded at lower earnings and enterprise-value multiples and carries lower leverage, a profile that can appeal to value-oriented investors but also reflects perceived emerging-market risk. Growth drivers differ as well: STLD leans on aluminum capacity expansion and a rising fabrication backlog, while GGB leans on North American pricing strength and mining-expansion cost benefits. Both face cyclical risks tied to steel prices, scrap costs, and broader industrial demand, but their risk profiles diverge along currency, geography, and product-mix lines.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a modest preference for STLD in the current environment. The company's stronger margins and returns on capital, U.S.-centric demand visibility, rising fabrication backlog, and aluminum growth catalyst present a steadier, catalyst-rich profile. GGB offers a cheaper valuation and a cleaner balance sheet, which could appeal to algorithmic models favoring value and low leverage, but its currency sensitivity and mixed analyst sentiment introduce greater variability. As with any probabilistic model, the assessment reflects current data rather than a fixed forecast, and the relative outlook could shift with steel prices, trade policy, or currency moves.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GGB is a StrongBuy and STLD is a StrongBuy.
GGB in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 29, 2026
GGB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 25 of 28 cases where GGB's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GGB as a result. In 68 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GGB just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where GGB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
GGB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GGB advanced for three days, in 204 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 224 of 276 cases where GGB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 44 of 71 cases where GGB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GGB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.192) is normal, around the industry mean (2.211). P/E Ratio (4.557) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.180). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.059) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.729) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GGB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
STLD in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on September 29, 2026
STLD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 33 cases where STLD's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on STLD as a result. In 66 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STLD just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where STLD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
STLD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STLD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +1.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STLD advanced for three days, in 263 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for STLD entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. STLD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.650) is normal, around the industry mean (2.211). P/E Ratio (21.691) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.180). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.059) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.693) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
GGB | STLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 17 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GGB's Valuation (9) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for STLD (60). This means that GGB’s stock grew somewhat faster than STLD’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GGB (43). This means that STLD’s stock grew somewhat faster than GGB’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's SMR Rating (50) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GGB (84). This means that STLD’s stock grew somewhat faster than GGB’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Steel industry is in the same range as GGB (39). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to GGB’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GGB (93). This means that STLD’s stock grew somewhat faster than GGB’s over the last 12 months.
| GGB | STLD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 9 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 63% | 7 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GGB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while STLD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- GGB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- STLD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GGB’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STLD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GGB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- STLD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
GGB (@Steel) experienced а +1.35% price change this week, while STLD (@Steel) price change was +2.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
GGB is expected to report earnings on Oct 26, 2026.
STLD is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (-2.63% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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GGB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GGB has been loosely correlated with SID. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GGB jumps, then SID could also see price increases.
STLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STLD has been closely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STLD jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLD | 100% | -3.25% | ||
| NUE - STLD | 88% Closely correlated | -2.45% | ||
| RS - STLD | 77% Closely correlated | -0.75% | ||
| CMC - STLD | 74% Closely correlated | -0.72% | ||
| GGB - STLD | 56% Loosely correlated | -3.24% | ||
| CLF - STLD | 55% Loosely correlated | -6.99% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| SCHD | 35.40 | 0.74 | +2.14% |
| Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) | |||
| GUT | 5.26 | 0.05 | +0.96% |
| Gabelli Utility Trust | |||
| SMOM | 29.67 | -0.26 | -0.85% |
| Symmetry Panoramic Sector Momentum ETF (SMOM) | |||
| CLSE | 33.40 | -0.60 | -1.76% |
| Convergence Long/Short Equity ETF (CLSE) | |||
| FORH | 23.21 | -0.54 | -2.28% |
| Formidable ETF (FORH) | |||