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HCA vs THC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? HCA Healthcare (HCA) vs. Tenet Healthcare (THC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HCA is the far larger operator, with a market capitalization of roughly $96 billion versus about $21 billion for THC, but size has not translated into recent stock outperformance.
- Both companies face the same macro headwind: a shift in payer mix and rising uninsured volumes following the expiration of enhanced health insurance exchange subsidies.
- THC has shown markedly stronger relative momentum, rising more than 20% over the past six months, while HCA has been pressured by a trimmed 2026 earnings outlook.
- Capital-return profiles differ: HCA pays a quarterly dividend, whereas THC returns cash primarily through aggressive share repurchases.
- Growth drivers diverge — THC leans on its high-margin ambulatory surgery platform, while HCA is investing more than $7 billion to expand hospital capacity.
Introduction
HCA Healthcare and Tenet Healthcare are two of the largest publicly traded, for-profit hospital operators in the United States, making a direct stock comparison especially relevant for investors weighing scale against growth. HCA is the industry's dominant player, while THC has repositioned itself around higher-margin ambulatory care. Both names have been shaped in recent weeks by the same regulatory and payer-mix dynamics, yet their relative performance has diverged sharply. This comparison examines business models, recent momentum, and market positioning to help traders and investors understand how these two healthcare stocks stack up in the current environment.
HCA Overview and Recent Performance
HCA Healthcare is the largest for-profit hospital system in the United States, operating roughly 189 hospitals, about 119 freestanding outpatient surgery centers, and more than 50,000 licensed beds across 20 states and the United Kingdom. Its scale, geographic diversification, and integrated service lines have historically provided a stable earnings base and a reliable dividend, which currently stands at $0.78 per share per quarter.
Recent market activity, however, has been more challenging. During the first half of the year, HCA reported solid revenue growth, but management trimmed its full-year 2026 earnings guidance to a range of $28.70 to $30.50 per share, citing an unfavorable payer-mix shift as more patients became uninsured after losing exchange coverage. A milder respiratory season, a January winter storm, and softer elective surgical volumes also weighed on results. These factors contributed to a notable pullback in the share price, and several sell-side analysts subsequently lowered their price targets even while maintaining broadly constructive ratings.
THC Overview and Recent Performance
THC (Tenet Healthcare) is a Dallas-based healthcare services company organized around two segments: hospital operations and ambulatory care. Its growth engine is United Surgical Partners International (USPI), which holds interests in more than 500 ambulatory surgery centers and 26 surgical hospitals across 37 states, alongside a revenue cycle management business called Conifer.
In contrast to HCA, THC has delivered stronger recent momentum. The stock has gained more than 20% over the past six months and posted a year-to-date return above 30%. The company raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) outlook to between $4.83 billion and $5.03 billion, driven by higher-acuity hospital services and continued USPI expansion. THC has also beaten earnings estimates in each of its past several quarters, repurchased roughly $1 billion of stock in a single quarter, and expanded its buyback authorization, though it does not pay a dividend.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale versus growth. HCA offers unmatched hospital capacity, geographic diversification, and a dividend, but its growth has moderated and its guidance was recently revised lower. THC is smaller and carries a more leveraged balance sheet, yet it is growing faster, expanding its higher-margin ambulatory footprint, and returning capital aggressively through buybacks.
On valuation, THC trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple than HCA, reflecting both its faster earnings growth and the market's discount for its higher debt and smaller scale. On momentum, THC has been the clear leader, while HCA has lagged. Risk factors are shared but uneven: both face exchange-enrollment headwinds and rising uninsured volumes, but HCA's broad payer mix and THC's concentrated ambulatory strategy expose them to these pressures in different ways.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven framework would likely lean toward THC in the current market environment. THC has demonstrated more persistent upward price momentum, a pattern of upward guidance revisions, and consistent earnings beats, all of which tend to register favorably in trend-following models. HCA, by contrast, is characterized more by stability, scale, and income generation, but its recent guidance trim and softer relative momentum place it in a less favorable short-term trend position. This is a probabilistic assessment based on recent data rather than a definitive forecast, and conditions can shift as new earnings and policy developments emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HCA is a StrongBuy and THC is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for HCA turns positive, indicating new upward trend
HCA saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 88 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 64 of the 88 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HCA just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where HCA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +2.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HCA advanced for three days, in 247 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 206 of 322 cases where HCA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HCA moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 32 of the 49 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 34 of 66 cases where HCA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HCA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
HCA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HCA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-14.975) is normal, around the industry mean (204.137). P/E Ratio (15.202) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.387). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.323) is also within normal values, averaging (2.498). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.095) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.264) is also within normal values, averaging (2.688).
Momentum Indicator for THC turns positive, indicating new upward trend
THC saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 77 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 68 of the 77 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for THC just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where THC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
THC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for THC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +3.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where THC advanced for three days, in 266 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for THC moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 36 of the 55 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 61 cases where THC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where THC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
THC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for THC entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. THC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.652) is normal, around the industry mean (204.137). P/E Ratio (10.327) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.387). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.789) is also within normal values, averaging (2.498). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.095) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.022) is also within normal values, averaging (2.688).
HCA | THC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 62 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HCA's Valuation (67) in the Hospital Or Nursing Management industry is in the same range as THC (74). This means that HCA’s stock grew similarly to THC’s over the last 12 months.
THC's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Hospital Or Nursing Management industry is in the same range as HCA (41). This means that THC’s stock grew similarly to HCA’s over the last 12 months.
THC's SMR Rating (20) in the Hospital Or Nursing Management industry is in the same range as HCA (45). This means that THC’s stock grew similarly to HCA’s over the last 12 months.
THC's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Hospital Or Nursing Management industry is in the same range as HCA (41). This means that THC’s stock grew similarly to HCA’s over the last 12 months.
HCA's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Hospital Or Nursing Management industry is in the same range as THC (62). This means that HCA’s stock grew similarly to THC’s over the last 12 months.
| HCA | THC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 88% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 71% | 8 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 69% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HCA’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while THC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- HCA’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- THC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HCA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while THC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HCA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- THC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HCA (@Hospital/Nursing Management) experienced а -2.35% price change this week, while THC (@Hospital/Nursing Management) price change was -0.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Hospital/Nursing Management industry was +0.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
HCA is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
THC is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Hospital/Nursing Management (+0.54% weekly)Hospital/Nursing Management companies own and operate health care facilities. Their operations include nursing homes, acute care facilities, retirement centers and outpatient surgery centers. HCA Healthcare Inc., Alcon Inc. and Universal Health Services, Inc. are some major companies in this industry. Technology has been at the forefront of development of advanced solutions, including quicker diagnoses of complex conditions. Investments in new diagnostics, healthcare IoT, and other healthcare technologies continue to gather momentum in this industry.
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HCA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HCA has been loosely correlated with UHS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HCA jumps, then UHS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HCA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCA | 100% | -1.36% | ||
| UHS - HCA | 66% Loosely correlated | -1.48% | ||
| THC - HCA | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.17% | ||
| ENSG - HCA | 39% Loosely correlated | -1.51% | ||
| SGRY - HCA | 32% Poorly correlated | -0.58% | ||
| CON - HCA | 32% Poorly correlated | +0.85% | ||
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