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HESM vs TRGP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Hess Midstream LP (HESM) vs. Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HESM provides a high dividend yield of approximately 8%, appealing to income-focused investors, while TRGP offers lower yield around 1.7% but stronger capital appreciation.
- TRGP has significantly outperformed year-to-date (YTD, a measure of performance from the start of the current year), up over 40%, compared to HESM's roughly 18% gain.
- Both stocks operate in the midstream energy sector (infrastructure for gathering, processing, and transporting oil and gas), but TRGP benefits from Permian Basin expansion, driving recent momentum.
- HESM shows lower volatility with a beta of 0.52 (a measure of stock volatility relative to the market) and fee-based stability from Bakken operations.
- Recent distribution increases for both highlight payout growth amid stable energy demand, though analyst sentiment leans mixed for HESM post-downgrade.
- Market caps differ sharply: TRGP at $55B vs. HESM at $8.3B, reflecting scale advantages for the former.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines HESM and TRGP, two prominent midstream energy firms focused on pipelines, gathering, and processing. Investors seeking stable income may gravitate toward high-yield options like HESM, while growth-oriented traders eye TRGP's expansion in key basins. In the current market, with steady energy demand and commodity volatility, understanding their relative performance, business models, and sentiment shifts aids portfolio decisions. This analysis draws on recent market activity for a balanced view of opportunities and trade-offs.
HESM Overview and Recent Performance
HESM (Hess Midstream LP) owns and operates midstream assets primarily in North Dakota's Bakken shale, including natural gas gathering systems, crude oil pipelines, and processing facilities like the Tioga Gas Plant. Trading around $39.78 recently, with a 52-week range of $31.63–$44.14, it boasts a market cap of $8.3 billion and a robust dividend yield near 8%. In recent weeks, shares have shown resilience amid energy sector fluctuations, supported by a recent distribution per share increase and estimated Q1 2026 results. Sentiment has been tempered by a Goldman Sachs downgrade to Sell (price target $32), citing risk-reward concerns, yet high fee-based revenues from long-term contracts foster stability. YTD gains of 17.78% reflect consistent performance driven by operational reliability rather than aggressive growth.
TRGP Overview and Recent Performance
TRGP (Targa Resources Corp.) manages a diversified portfolio of gathering, processing, and logistics assets, with heavy exposure to the Permian Basin and Gulf Coast NGL (natural gas liquids) infrastructure. Shares recently hovered near $256.64, within a 52-week range of $144.14–$260.49, backed by a $55 billion market cap and 1.67% dividend yield. Recent market activity has propelled strong gains, fueled by a 25% dividend hike, Permian expansion plans, and robust Q1 expectations. YTD performance exceeds 40%, outpacing peers, as higher gas volumes and infrastructure demand bolster momentum. While insider sales and a Seaport downgrade to Neutral introduce caution, Morgan Stanley's top pick status underscores positive growth outlook from NGL fractionation and transportation services.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both HESM and TRGP thrive in midstream operations but diverge in scale and drivers: HESM's Bakken-centric, fee-based model emphasizes stability (P/E ratio of 13.91), contrasting TRGP's Permian growth via NGL logistics (P/E 30.23). Recent momentum favors TRGP with superior YTD returns, while HESM counters with higher yield and lower beta for risk aversion. Growth catalysts include TRGP's expansions versus HESM's steady contracts; risks involve commodity exposure for both, though TRGP faces higher valuation multiples. Sector tailwinds like AI-driven power demand aid pipelines, but sentiment tilts toward TRGP's scale amid relative performance edges.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward TRGP, citing superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and Permian catalysts positioning it favorably in recent market activity. While HESM excels in yield stability, TRGP's momentum suggests higher probability of near-term upside, though energy volatility warrants monitoring.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HESM is a StrongBuy and TRGP is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HESM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileTRGP’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- HESM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TRGP’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HESM’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TRGP’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HESM’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 2 bearish.
- TRGP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HESM (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) experienced а -0.85% price change this week, while TRGP (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) price change was +3.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Pipelines industry was +2.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +30.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
HESM is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
TRGP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Pipelines (+2.49% weekly)Oil & Gas Pipelines industry includes companies that transport natural gas and crude oil through pipelines. These companies also collect and market the fuels. The pipeline segment could be considered as a midstream operation – functioning as a link between the upstream and downstream operations in the oil and gas industry. Some of the largest U.S. pipeline players include Enterprise Products Partners L.P, TC Energy Corporation and Energy Transfer, L.P.
| HESM | TRGP | HESM / TRGP | |
| Capitalization | 4.94B | 58.5B | 8% |
| EBITDA | 1.25B | 5.22B | 24% |
| Gain YTD | 16.352 | 49.233 | 33% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.32 | 27.84 | 48% |
| Revenue | 1.63B | 16.6B | 10% |
| Total Cash | 4.6M | 100M | 5% |
| Total Debt | 3.77B | 19.1B | 20% |
HESM | TRGP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | 33 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 13 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 63 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 19 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HESM's Valuation (3) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as TRGP (33) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that HESM’s stock grew similarly to TRGP’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as HESM (21) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that TRGP’s stock grew similarly to HESM’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's SMR Rating (15) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as HESM (17) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that TRGP’s stock grew similarly to HESM’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's Price Growth Rating (13) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HESM (52) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that TRGP’s stock grew somewhat faster than HESM’s over the last 12 months.
TRGP's P/E Growth Rating (63) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as HESM (67) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that TRGP’s stock grew similarly to HESM’s over the last 12 months.
| HESM | TRGP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 51% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 17 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 77% |
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HESM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HESM has been loosely correlated with LNG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HESM jumps, then LNG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HESM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HESM | 100% | -0.36% | ||
| LNG - HESM | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.47% | ||
| OKE - HESM | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.56% | ||
| TRGP - HESM | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.20% | ||
| AM - HESM | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.45% | ||
| PAGP - HESM | 46% Loosely correlated | -0.04% | ||
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TRGP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TRGP has been closely correlated with OKE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TRGP jumps, then OKE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TRGP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRGP | 100% | +1.20% | ||
| OKE - TRGP | 72% Closely correlated | +1.56% | ||
| KMI - TRGP | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.85% | ||
| KNTK - TRGP | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.51% | ||
| WMB - TRGP | 54% Loosely correlated | +1.39% | ||
| PAGP - TRGP | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.04% | ||
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