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HWM vs TDG
HWM vs TDG Stock Comparison: Earnings Recap as Howmet’s Guidance Surge Outshines TransDigm’s Cautious Outlook
Key Takeaways
- Howmet Aerospace (HWM) reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.17B, up 15% YoY, beating estimates by 2%; adjusted EPS of $1.05, up 42%.
- TransDigm Group (TDG) Q1 fiscal 2026 net sales hit $2.285B, up 14% YoY; adjusted EPS $8.23, up 5%, with EBITDA as Defined margin at 52.4%.
- HWM shares surged ~10% post-earnings on strong guidance; TDG dipped despite beats due to FY outlook.
- Both firms raised FY2026 guidance amid robust commercial aerospace and defense demand.
- HWM trades at ~66x trailing P/E with $99B market cap; TDG at ~42x P/E, $74B market cap.
- Industry tailwinds from OEM build rates and aftermarket growth position both for continued expansion.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Howmet Aerospace's Q4 2025 earnings highlighted accelerating growth in commercial aerospace spares (up 13%), defense (up 20%), and gas turbines (up 32%), underscoring its critical role in engine components and fastening systems. Comparing HWM to TransDigm, a leader in proprietary aircraft parts, reveals shared exposure to aerospace recovery but differing strategies: HWM emphasizes organic productivity and debt reduction, while TDG pursues acquisitive growth. With both beating estimates amid Boeing and Airbus production ramps, this matchup aids investors gauging valuation trade-offs in a sector poised for mid-teens demand growth.
HWM Earnings Focus
Howmet Aerospace released Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 12, 2026, reporting revenue of $2.17 billion, surpassing consensus estimates of $2.12-$2.14 billion and up 15% YoY. Adjusted EPS reached $1.05, beating expectations of $0.97 by 8% and rising 42% from $0.74 a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA hit $653 million (30.1% margin, +330 bps YoY), driven by Engine Products (revenue up 20% to $1.16B), Fastening Systems (up 13%), and strong spares demand.
Full-year revenue grew 11% to $8.25 billion, with adjusted EPS up 40% to $3.77 and free cash flow at $1.4 billion. Guidance for FY2026 projects revenue of $9.0-$9.2 billion (~10% growth), adjusted EPS $4.35-$4.55, and free cash flow $1.55-$1.65 billion. Shares jumped ~10% post-release, reflecting optimism on margin expansion and capital returns ($700M buybacks in 2025).
TDG Context and Earnings Relevance
TransDigm reported fiscal Q1 2026 results on February 3, 2026 (quarter ended December 27, 2025), with net sales of $2.285 billion, up 13.9% YoY (7.4% organic) and beating estimates. Adjusted EPS was $8.23, up 5% from $7.83 and topping consensus. EBITDA as Defined rose 12.8% to $1.197 billion (52.4% margin), supported by double-digit commercial OEM growth, high-single-digit aftermarket and defense gains.
FY2026 guidance was raised: sales $9.845-$10.035 billion, adjusted EPS $37.42-$39.34. Recent acquisitions like Simmonds Precision and pending deals for Stellant, Jet Parts, and Victor Sierra (~$3.2B total) bolster aftermarket positioning. Despite beats, shares fell ~2-3% on perceived soft margins and interest costs.
AI Trading Bot Perspective
Tickeron provides AI-driven trading bots for HWM and TDG. For HWM, the Aerospace AI Trading Agent operates on a 5-minute timeframe, leveraging short-term signals for aerospace sector plays—view results at Tickeron HWM Bot. For TDG, the Swing Trader bot tracks dip trends in industrial stocks on a 60-minute TA timeframe, targeting momentum reversals—details at Tickeron TDG Bot. These tools offer data-backed strategies without guaranteeing performance.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
HWM's Q4 revenue growth (15%) edged TDG's Q1 (14%), but TDG boasts superior margins (52.4% EBITDA as Defined vs. HWM's 30.1%) from proprietary parts pricing power. Growth drivers align on commercial OEM/aftermarket and defense, though HWM gains from gas turbines (32% Q4 surge) while TDG eyes $3.2B acquisitions for aftermarket bolt-ons. Risks: HWM faces forged wheels weakness; TDG contends with high debt (~$30B) and integration. Sentiment favors HWM's post-earnings pop and lower leverage vs. TDG's premium valuation stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models lean toward HWM based on recent earnings momentum, 10%+ post-earnings surge, and FY2026 guidance implying ~18% EPS growth amid favorable aerospace trends. TDG offers margin resilience but trails on YTD performance and acquisition dilution risks. Probabilistic edge to HWM for near-term upside, though both suit growth-oriented portfolios—not investment advice.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HWM is a Hold and TDG is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HWM’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileTDG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- HWM’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- TDG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HWM’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TDG’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HWM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TDG’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
HWM (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -0.02% price change this week, while TDG (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -5.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was +43.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
HWM is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
TDG is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-1.34% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| HWM | TDG | HWM / TDG | |
| Capitalization | 109B | 65.9B | 165% |
| EBITDA | 2.55B | 4.83B | 53% |
| Gain YTD | 32.985 | -11.357 | -290% |
| P/E Ratio | 63.19 | 36.79 | 172% |
| Revenue | 8.62B | 9.5B | 91% |
| Total Cash | 2.44B | 3.88B | 63% |
| Total Debt | 4.69B | 32B | 15% |
HWM | TDG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 4 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 54 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 28 | 17 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 74 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TDG's Valuation (54) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HWM (75) in the null industry. This means that TDG’s stock grew similarly to HWM’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the null industry is in the same range as TDG (29) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM’s stock grew similarly to TDG’s over the last 12 months.
TDG's SMR Rating (17) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HWM (28) in the null industry. This means that TDG’s stock grew similarly to HWM’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Price Growth Rating (15) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TDG (61) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM’s stock grew somewhat faster than TDG’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's P/E Growth Rating (30) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TDG (74) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM’s stock grew somewhat faster than TDG’s over the last 12 months.
| HWM | TDG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 70% | 9 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 32% |
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HWM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HWM has been closely correlated with GE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HWM jumps, then GE could also see price increases.