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IONQ vs QBTS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? IonQ (IONQ) vs. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- IONQ has scaled far faster on revenue, posting roughly $246 million in trailing 12-month revenue, while QBTS generated only about $12 million over the same period.
- Both stocks remain deeply unprofitable and richly valued relative to sales, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- IonQ has expanded through acquisitions (SkyWater Technology and Elisity), while D-Wave Quantum remains a more focused pure-play on quantum annealing and cloud services.
- Sentiment has cooled across the sector in recent months, with both names trading well below their recent highs after sharp year-to-date declines.
- D-Wave carries a growing backlog and stronger bookings momentum, but IonQ has more visible, diversified revenue and a larger cash base.
Introduction
IonQ and D-Wave Quantum are two of the most closely watched pure-play quantum computing stocks, and they are frequently compared because they represent different technological approaches within the same emerging industry. IonQ specializes in trapped-ion quantum computers sold as a full-stack platform, while D-Wave is best known for quantum annealing systems optimized for optimization problems. For growth-oriented investors and traders tracking the volatile quantum sector, understanding how these two companies differ in business model, momentum, and risk is essential. This stock comparison examines their recent performance, market positioning, and the factors currently shaping sentiment toward each name.
IONQ Overview and Recent Performance
IonQ, Inc. develops trapped-ion quantum computing systems and sells access to them through its own cloud service and third-party platforms such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. In recent months, the company has shifted toward becoming a broader "full-stack quantum platform and foundry," driven by its acquisitions of chip foundry SkyWater Technology and cybersecurity firm Elisity.
Recent market activity has been volatile. IONQ shares have declined sharply from their prior highs, with the stock down roughly 30% year to date at recent levels and about half over the trailing year. The company's revenue, however, has expanded rapidly, with trailing 12-month revenue near $246 million, up more than 370% year over year, helped in part by acquisitions. Management raised its 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $450 million to $460 million, reflecting SkyWater's contribution. A recent $2 billion equity offering and the Elisity acquisition introduced concerns about shareholder dilution, which weighed on sentiment even as analyst consensus remains generally positive.
QBTS Overview and Recent Performance
D-Wave Quantum Inc. develops quantum annealing computers and, increasingly, gate-model quantum systems, delivered through both direct system sales and its quantum cloud (known as "QCaaS," or quantum computing as a service). The company has focused on commercial optimization applications across logistics, manufacturing, and telecommunications.
Recent performance for QBTS has been weaker than its peer. The stock has fallen roughly 55% year to date and around 70% over the trailing 12 months, trading near its 52-week low. Revenue remains small and lumpy, with second-quarter 2026 revenue of about $3.1 million essentially flat year over year, as hardware sales are recognized only upon delivery. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) losses widened materially. On the positive side, D-Wave's backlog rose to roughly $40.7 million, first-half bookings surged, and the company delivered Italy's first annealing quantum system while expanding its partnership with SkyWater. A securities lawsuit and a CFO transition added to near-term uncertainty.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is scale and diversification versus focus and momentum. IonQ has built a materially larger and faster-growing revenue base, and its acquisitions have extended it beyond quantum computing into semiconductor foundry services and cybersecurity. D-Wave, by comparison, remains a smaller, more concentrated business whose revenue is heavily dependent on a handful of large system deliveries, making its top line inherently lumpy.
On growth drivers, IonQ's expanded guidance and new product roadmap (including its Superion 256 system) provide a broader set of catalysts. D-Wave's growth case rests on converting its sharply higher bookings and backlog into recognized revenue, particularly through two expected fourth-quarter system shipments. Both companies face the same sector-wide risk: valuations that remain high relative to sales despite significant share-price declines, and ongoing operating losses that require sustained capital.
In terms of market sentiment, IonQ has retained stronger analyst support and a larger cash cushion, while D-Wave trades at a higher price-to-sales multiple relative to its shrinking revenue. Risk profiles differ too: IonQ's recent equity raise introduces dilution risk, whereas D-Wave faces execution and revenue-recognition risk as well as litigation overhang.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, revenue visibility, balance-sheet strength, and catalyst breadth, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward IONQ as the comparatively stronger setup. IonQ's larger, more diversified revenue base, expanded guidance, and substantial cash position suggest more stable positioning relative to D-Wave's concentrated, delivery-dependent revenue model and elevated valuation. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: D-Wave's surging backlog could translate into a sharp revenue inflection if its fourth-quarter shipments complete on schedule. In a high-volatility sector, the balance of observable signals currently appears modestly more favorable for IonQ, while D-Wave remains a higher-risk, higher-uncertainty proposition.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IONQ is a Hold and QBTS is a Hold.
IONQ in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for IONQ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IONQ as a result. In 71 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for IONQ turned negative on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 41 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
IONQ moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IONQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Aroon Indicator for IONQ entered a downward trend on September 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where IONQ's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IONQ advanced for three days, in 233 of 273 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
IONQ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 48 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.794) is normal, around the industry mean (-7.468). P/E Ratio (-8.052) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.030). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (51.020) is also within normal values, averaging (51.774).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. IONQ’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. IONQ’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Momentum Indicator for QBTS turns negative, indicating new downward trend
QBTS saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 67 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 60 of the 67 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QBTS turned negative on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 33 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QBTS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator for QBTS entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 16 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
QBTS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.076) is normal, around the industry mean (-7.468). P/E Ratio (-16.614) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.030). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. QBTS's P/S Ratio (476.190) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (51.774).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. QBTS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QBTS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
| IONQ | QBTS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 90% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 89% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 86% | 9 days ago 87% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 88% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IONQ’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while QBTS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- IONQ’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- QBTS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IONQ’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while QBTS’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IONQ’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- QBTS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
IONQ (@Computer Processing Hardware) experienced а -9.29% price change this week, while QBTS (@Computer Processing Hardware) price change was -9.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Computer Processing Hardware industry was -5.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.30%.
Reported Earning Dates
IONQ is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
QBTS is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Computer Processing Hardware (-5.61% weekly)Computer Processing Hardware industry produces central processing unit, monitor, keyboard, computer data storage devices, and graphics card. Business activity and economic growth are potential drivers of this industry – if more businesses are growing or flourishing, so would their investments in computer equipment. Dell Technologies, Inc, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co., NCR Corporation are key producers of computer processing hardware.
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IONQ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IONQ has been closely correlated with RGTI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IONQ jumps, then RGTI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To IONQ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ | 100% | -3.47% | ||
| RGTI - IONQ | 86% Closely correlated | -4.73% | ||
| QBTS - IONQ | 84% Closely correlated | -3.88% | ||
| UMAC - IONQ | 58% Loosely correlated | -4.18% | ||
| OSS - IONQ | 48% Loosely correlated | -4.37% | ||
| SSYS - IONQ | 44% Loosely correlated | -1.59% | ||
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QBTS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, QBTS has been closely correlated with RGTI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if QBTS jumps, then RGTI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To QBTS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBTS | 100% | -3.88% | ||
| RGTI - QBTS | 93% Closely correlated | -4.73% | ||
| QUBT - QBTS | 85% Closely correlated | -3.37% | ||
| IONQ - QBTS | 85% Closely correlated | -3.47% | ||
| OSS - QBTS | 48% Loosely correlated | -4.37% | ||
| DPRO - QBTS | 48% Loosely correlated | -3.23% | ||
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