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JEF vs RJF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) vs. Raymond James Financial (RJF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business engines: Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) leans on institutional investment banking and capital markets, while Raymond James Financial (RJF) is anchored by a large wealth-management and advisory franchise.
- Momentum divergence: JEF has faced selling pressure tied to the First Brands/Point Bonita situation, whereas RJF has delivered record client assets and steady capital returns.
- Capital-return profile: RJF recently raised its dividend 8% and authorized a $2 billion buyback; JEF is focused on reinvestment and its expanded SMBC partnership.
- Analyst sentiment: JEF has drawn notable upgrades, while RJF carries a broadly neutral "Hold" consensus with a more modest expected upside.
- Risk profiles differ: JEF carries higher cyclical and credit-event sensitivity; RJF offers more fee-based stability but faces interest-rate pressure on net interest income.
Introduction
Jefferies Financial Group and Raymond James Financial are both prominent players in U.S. financial services, yet they serve the market in materially different ways. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, market positioning, and catalysts for traders and investors weighing a capital-markets-driven franchise against a diversified wealth-management powerhouse. While the two companies occasionally compete in investment banking, their revenue mixes and risk exposures diverge sharply, making the pair a useful lens for understanding how sentiment, stability, and growth dynamics influence valuation in the current environment.
JEF Overview and Recent Performance
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is a global investment banking and capital markets firm whose earnings are closely tied to merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, underwriting, and trading. Recent weeks have brought a mix of constructive and challenging developments. On the positive side, Jefferies reported solid fiscal results, including a roughly 20% year-over-year rise in investment banking revenue, and its partnership with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMBC) was expanded with about $2.5 billion in new credit facilities and a path to raise SMBC's ownership stake toward 20%.
Sentiment, however, has been pressured by concerns surrounding the First Brands bankruptcy and related exposure in the Point Bonita fund, which prompted an SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) probe and a modest investment loss. Analysts have responded with a flurry of upgrades, citing an accelerating M&A cycle and what some describe as overblown concerns, but the stock's year-to-date relative performance remains subdued versus the broader market.
RJF Overview and Recent Performance
Raymond James Financial (RJF) operates a diversified model spanning private client wealth management, capital markets, asset management, and banking. Its recent market activity reflects steady execution rather than dramatic swings. The company reported record quarterly net revenues near $3.7 billion and record client assets of roughly $1.77 trillion, with annualized net new asset growth of about 8% in its domestic Private Client Group.
Capital-return discipline has been a theme, with an 8% dividend increase and a new $2 billion share repurchase authorization. The firm has also pursued acquisitions, including Clark Capital Management and GreensLedge, to broaden its asset-management and structured-products capabilities. Offsetting factors include the drag from lower short-term interest rates on interest income and a capital-markets segment facing softer M&A and advisory activity compared with unusually strong prior periods.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The sharpest contrast between JEF and RJF lies in revenue composition. Jefferies is dominated by institutional capital markets and advisory work, giving it high leverage to deal flow and market volatility. Raymond James, by contrast, generates a larger share of revenue from recurring asset-management and administrative fees, which lends relative stability but exposes it to interest-rate headwinds on cash sweep balances.
Growth drivers also diverge. JEF's thesis rests on a recovering M&A and underwriting cycle and deeper ties with SMBC. RJF's story centers on adviser recruiting, net new assets, and selective acquisitions. On risk, JEF carries event-driven credit exposure that has unsettled investors recently, while RJF's risks are more macro-oriented, tied to rates and client risk appetite. Market sentiment reflects this: JEF has attracted upgrades despite recent weakness, whereas RJF garners a cautious consensus with limited expected near-term upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor Raymond James Financial (RJF) for trend consistency and stability. Its record client assets, predictable fee-based revenue, and disciplined capital returns offer steadier positioning than a capital-markets-driven counterpart currently contending with a credit-related overhang. That said, Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) presents a potentially stronger catalyst profile if the M&A cycle accelerates as several analysts expect. The AI's preference, framed probabilistically, leans toward RJF on stability while acknowledging JEF's higher cyclical upside potential.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JEF is a Hold and RJF is a Buy.
JEF's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for JEF turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where JEF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 39 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on JEF as a result. In 50 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
JEF moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for JEF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +6.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JEF advanced for three days, in 256 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for JEF moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 35 of the 54 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 63 cases where JEF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JEF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
JEF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for JEF entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JEF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. JEF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.034) is normal, around the industry mean (3.120). P/E Ratio (12.910) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.734). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.030) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (8.976) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.889) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
RJF's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for RJF moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RJF as a result. In 48 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RJF just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where RJF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
RJF moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for RJF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +3.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RJF advanced for three days, in 210 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 63 cases where RJF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RJF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
RJF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RJF entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RJF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.466) is normal, around the industry mean (2.412). P/E Ratio (13.927) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.386). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.791) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.270) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.197) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
JEF | RJF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RJF's Valuation (83) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (84). This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JEF (75). This means that RJF’s stock grew somewhat faster than JEF’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's SMR Rating (9) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is significantly better than the same rating for JEF (77). This means that RJF’s stock grew significantly faster than JEF’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (53). This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (82). This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
| JEF | RJF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 7 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JEF’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while RJF’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- JEF’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RJF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JEF’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RJF’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JEF’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- RJF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
JEF (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -1.03% price change this week, while RJF (@Investment Managers) price change was +3.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -3.40%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was -23.03%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -2.64%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.86%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.76%.
Reported Earning Dates
JEF is expected to report earnings on Jan 13, 2027.
RJF is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-3.40% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Investment Managers (-2.64% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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JEF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JEF has been closely correlated with RJF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JEF jumps, then RJF could also see price increases.
RJF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RJF has been closely correlated with SF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RJF jumps, then SF could also see price increases.