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JEF vs NDAQ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) vs. Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- JEF is an investment banking and capital markets firm whose earnings momentum has been strong, yet the share price has pulled back sharply over recent months.
- NDAQ is an exchange operator and financial technology company delivering consistent double-digit revenue growth and expanding recurring income.
- JEF trades at a significantly lower valuation multiple, while NDAQ commands a premium that reflects a steadier, more subscription-based earnings stream.
- The two companies sit in different parts of the capital markets value chain, exposing them to different growth drivers and risk profiles.
- Relative performance and market positioning currently diverge, making this comparison useful for both momentum-oriented and stability-seeking investors.
Introduction
Jefferies Financial Group and Nasdaq, Inc. both operate within the broader financial-services ecosystem, but they earn money in very different ways. JEF is primarily an investment bank whose results swing with deal flow, trading volumes, and market activity, while NDAQ blends exchange, data, index, and technology revenues into a more recurring income base. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a cyclical, value-priced franchise against a steadier, higher-multiple growth platform. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help clarify which profile better fits a given strategy in the current market environment.
JEF Overview and Recent Performance
Jefferies Financial Group is a global investment banking and capital markets firm spanning advisory, underwriting, equities, fixed income, and asset management. In recent quarters, the company has reported record investment banking revenue, supported by stronger advisory and equity underwriting activity, while equities trading has also gained market share. These gains have been partly offset by softer fixed income trading results and periodic mark-to-market losses in certain holdings.
Despite improving fundamentals, JEF shares have declined meaningfully over recent months, with the stock trading in the mid-$40s and down substantially on a year-to-date basis. This has left the company at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the low double digits, well below the broader capital markets industry average. Management has paired solid earnings with shareholder-friendly actions, including a quarterly dividend and an expanded share repurchase authorization. Sentiment appears torn between visible earnings momentum and the inherent cyclicality of an investment bank whose revenue can swing with market conditions.
NDAQ Overview and Recent Performance
Nasdaq, Inc. is a global technology company serving capital markets and other industries, operating through Market Services, Capital Access Platforms, and Financial Technology divisions. In recent quarters, the company has reported double-digit net revenue growth across all three segments, led by a sharp increase in index revenue, record Market Services results, and accelerating Financial Technology demand. Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) has continued to climb, with subscription-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) offerings representing a growing share of the mix.
NDAQ shares have delivered strong multi-year returns and currently trade near the mid-$90s, supported by a non-GAAP operating margin around 57%. The company has benefited from a robust listings environment, including several high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs), and has expanded its footprint in areas such as financial crime management and AI-driven compliance tools. Nasdaq has also raised its dividend while returning capital through buybacks, reflecting confidence in its recurring revenue model and cash generation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast is business model. JEF earns a large portion of revenue from transaction-sensitive investment banking and trading, making its results more cyclical and its valuation cheaper. NDAQ derives roughly three-quarters of its revenue from recurring solutions, which supports steadier growth and a richer multiple.
On growth drivers, NDAQ benefits from structural trends such as index adoption, financial crime management technology, and market data demand, while JEF depends more on capital markets activity, advisory pipelines, and trading volumes. On momentum, NDAQ has shown consistent top-line expansion and margin expansion, whereas JEF has delivered record banking revenue but faces pressure from softer fixed income results and a lower share price. Risk factors differ as well: JEF carries greater earnings variability and credit-market exposure, while NDAQ faces integration risks from acquisitions and a higher valuation that leaves less room for error.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and catalyst profiles, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward NDAQ in the current environment. The company's recurring revenue base, expanding margins, and broad-based growth across divisions offer a more consistent trend signature than the more cyclical earnings pattern of JEF. That said, JEF's lower valuation and record investment banking results present a potential mean-reversion opportunity that momentum-driven algorithms may flag under different conditions. This verdict reflects relative positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and individual outcomes will depend on evolving market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JEF is a Buy and NDAQ is a Hold.
JEF's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for JEF moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 46 cases where JEF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on JEF as a result. In 56 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for JEF just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where JEF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +3.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JEF advanced for three days, in 256 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
JEF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JEF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for JEF entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JEF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. JEF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.982) is normal, around the industry mean (3.638). P/E Ratio (12.270) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.944). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.030) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (7.191) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.889) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NDAQ in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
NDAQ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 25 of 32 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NDAQ's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NDAQ as a result. In 46 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NDAQ just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NDAQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +3.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NDAQ advanced for three days, in 224 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for NDAQ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NDAQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
NDAQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NDAQ entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NDAQ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.482) is normal, around the industry mean (3.954). P/E Ratio (27.780) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.124). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.712) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.831) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
JEF | NDAQ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 33 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JEF's Valuation (85) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as NDAQ (85). This means that JEF’s stock grew similarly to NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JEF (77). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than JEF’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's SMR Rating (52) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (77). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Price Growth Rating (33) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (61). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's P/E Growth Rating (58) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (80). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
| JEF | NDAQ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 9 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JEF’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while NDAQ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- JEF’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NDAQ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JEF’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NDAQ’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JEF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- NDAQ’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
JEF (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а +2.55% price change this week, while NDAQ (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +4.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -5.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -16.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +2.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
JEF is expected to report earnings on Jan 13, 2027.
NDAQ is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-5.09% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Financial Publishing/Services (+2.74% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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