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JEF vs NDAQ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) vs. Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Business Model Divergence: JEF operates as a pure-play investment bank driven by M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and capital markets activity, while NDAQ functions as a diversified exchange and financial technology platform with substantial recurring revenue streams.
- Recent Momentum Gap: NDAQ has gained approximately 10% over the past month, while JEF declined roughly 11% in the same period, reflecting diverging market sentiment.
- Valuation Profile: JEF trades at a forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) around 15x with a ~2.9% dividend yield, while NDAQ carries a premium valuation supported by its ARR (annualized recurring revenue) growth and fintech transformation.
- Risk Tolerance Required: JEF's beta of 1.51 signals significantly higher volatility than NDAQ, making it more suitable for investors comfortable with cyclical swings tied to deal flow and capital markets conditions.
- Analyst Consensus Split: JEF holds a consensus Hold rating with a wide price-target range, while NDAQ benefits from stronger institutional confidence rooted in its recurring revenue base and deleveraging progress.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the financial sector often face a choice between cyclical, deal-driven firms and steadier, infrastructure-oriented operators. This comparison between JEF (Jefferies Financial Group) and NDAQ (Nasdaq Inc.) captures that exact tension. Jefferies thrives when M&A volumes surge and capital markets run hot; Nasdaq increasingly derives its strength from recurring SaaS (software-as-a-service) revenue, index licensing, and financial technology solutions. Both stocks belong to the financial ecosystem, yet they respond to very different drivers. Whether an investor prioritizes deep-value cyclical exposure or steady compounding with a tech tilt, understanding how these two names compare in the current market environment is essential for effective portfolio positioning.
JEF Overview and Recent Performance
Jefferies Financial Group is a global investment banking and capital markets firm offering advisory, underwriting, trading, and asset management services. The company has steadily climbed the league tables, rising to sixth place in global advisory rankings in 2025 from eleventh in 2018. Its strategic alliance with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) continues to provide both balance sheet support and expanded deal-sourcing capabilities across geographies.
In recent weeks, JEF shares have experienced notable volatility. The stock sits approximately 20% below its 52-week high of $71.04 reached in September 2025, trading near the mid-$50s range. The company reported fiscal second-quarter results that featured a 35% year-over-year revenue increase and record quarterly investment banking and equities revenues, yet earnings per share of $1.02 missed consensus estimates of roughly $1.16. This earnings miss, combined with subsequent analyst price-target adjustments from firms including UBS and Oppenheimer, contributed to selling pressure. Additionally, a late-June removal from several Russell growth indexes and shareholder-rights law firm inquiries created further near-term headwinds. On the positive side, the board's approval of a $250 million share buyback program and a €850 million senior notes offering in early July signal management's confidence in the firm's capital position and long-term trajectory.
NDAQ Overview and Recent Performance
Nasdaq Inc. has transformed well beyond its original identity as a stock exchange operator. The company now operates across three primary divisions: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services. Its solutions-oriented model generates substantial ARR (annualized recurring revenue), which reached $2.9 billion in the most recent reported quarter — a 10% year-over-year increase. Index revenue has been a particular bright spot, growing 17% alongside $88 billion in net inflows over the trailing twelve months.
NDAQ shares have demonstrated relative strength in recent weeks, gaining roughly 10% over the past month to trade near $91. The stock remains approximately 5% below its year-start level but has recovered meaningfully from earlier 2026 lows. The company's second-quarter 2025 results showcased 13% net revenue growth and a 24% increase in non-GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) diluted earnings per share. Importantly, Nasdaq surpassed its gross leverage milestone 16 months ahead of plan, returning $155 million to shareholders through dividends and $100 million through buybacks while also repaying $400 million in senior unsecured notes. This combination of organic growth, balance sheet discipline, and capital return has reinforced institutional confidence in the name.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between JEF and NDAQ lies in their revenue composition. Jefferies generates the vast majority of its income from advisory fees, underwriting spreads, and trading gains — all of which are inherently cyclical and sensitive to deal volume, market volatility, and investor sentiment. NDAQ, by contrast, has systematically shifted toward recurring revenue: SaaS subscriptions, index licensing, data analytics, and anti-financial-crime technology now represent the core growth engine, with ARR providing visibility that investment banks simply cannot replicate.
From a risk perspective, JEF carries a beta of approximately 1.51, meaning it tends to amplify broader market moves by roughly 50%. NDAQ, with a significantly lower beta, offers a more tempered volatility profile. This divergence was visible in recent weeks, as JEF absorbed earnings-related and legal-overhang selling while NDAQ benefited from steady institutional accumulation. On valuation, JEF trades at a discount on both a price-to-earnings and price-to-book basis, which may appeal to value-oriented investors, but that discount also compensates for less predictable earnings. NDAQ commands a premium multiple, justified in part by its higher-margin, subscription-based revenue streams and demonstrated ability to deleverage ahead of schedule.
Sector exposure further differentiates the two. Jefferies prospers when M&A and IPO (initial public offering) pipelines are robust — conditions that have been improving but remain uneven across industries. Nasdaq benefits from secular trends including the growth of passive investing (via index-linked products), rising demand for compliance and surveillance technology, and the ongoing digitization of capital markets infrastructure. A prolonged M&A drought would pressure Jefferies far more than Nasdaq, while a surge in dealmaking would likely lift JEF more dramatically than NDAQ.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, revenue visibility, and relative positioning in the current market environment, Tickeron's AI-driven framework would likely express a near-term preference for NDAQ over JEF. The reasoning centers on three factors: NDAQ's demonstrated price momentum over the past month, its structural advantage in recurring revenue that insulates earnings from cyclical swings, and its successful balance sheet deleveraging — all of which contribute to a more stable trend profile suitable for AI pattern recognition. JEF remains a fundamentally sound franchise with genuine upside optionality tied to a recovering M&A cycle, and its discounted valuation could attract AI models oriented toward mean-reversion strategies. However, the combination of an earnings miss, legal uncertainty, and above-average volatility introduces friction that trend-following and stability-weighted models tend to favor avoiding in the immediate term. As always, these assessments reflect probabilities and pattern analysis rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JEF is a Buy and NDAQ is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JEF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileNDAQ’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- JEF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NDAQ’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JEF’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NDAQ’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JEF’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NDAQ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
JEF (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -2.26% price change this week, while NDAQ (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +2.28% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was +0.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.94%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +0.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
JEF is expected to report earnings on Sep 30, 2026.
NDAQ is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (+0.01% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Financial Publishing/Services (+0.21% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
| JEF | NDAQ | JEF / NDAQ | |
| Capitalization | 12.6B | 52.7B | 24% |
| EBITDA | 4.83B | 3.43B | 141% |
| Gain YTD | -10.547 | -2.371 | 445% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.25 | 27.46 | 56% |
| Revenue | 11.8B | 8.74B | 135% |
| Total Cash | 14.3B | 2.79B | 513% |
| Total Debt | 26.5B | 9.24B | 287% |
JEF | NDAQ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 13 Undervalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | 79 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JEF's Valuation (13) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NDAQ (63). This means that JEF’s stock grew somewhat faster than NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JEF (63). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than JEF’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's SMR Rating (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (79). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (49). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's P/E Growth Rating (79) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as JEF (83). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to JEF’s over the last 12 months.
| JEF | NDAQ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 76% | 6 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 55% |
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JEF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JEF has been closely correlated with RJF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JEF jumps, then RJF could also see price increases.
NDAQ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NDAQ has been closely correlated with JEF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NDAQ jumps, then JEF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NDAQ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQ | 100% | -1.02% | ||
| JEF - NDAQ | 71% Closely correlated | -0.89% | ||
| MS - NDAQ | 71% Closely correlated | +0.72% | ||
| GS - NDAQ | 70% Closely correlated | -0.63% | ||
| RJF - NDAQ | 69% Closely correlated | +0.58% | ||
| SPGI - NDAQ | 68% Closely correlated | -0.74% | ||
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